Sorry to toot my own prescience, but no one else will do it for me. Last February, when Democratic primary fires still burned brightly, there was a lot of concern among Democrats that McCain would prove to be a formidable candidate because of his experience, military record, media popularity, reputation as a straight-shooter, and appeal among independents. I wanted to write about McCain's chances, but I concluded that attempting to predict the relative importance to voters of experience vs. change, national security vs. economy, straight-shooting vs. smooth-talking, etc. was wild guesswork. Instead, I decided to focus on McCain's track record as campaigner. In one of my very first political blog posts, called Overestimating McCain, I wrote that McCain's primary campaign had been nearly crushed by lackluster fundraising, poor planning, fiscal mismanagement, and infighting and that McCain was so out of touch with campaign operations that he was "started and enraged" to he learn that his campaign had run out of money. Moreover, the sagging fortunes of his campaign eventually reversed only because of positive news from Iraq and the titanic implosion of rival Rudy Giuliani's campaign rather than because of any clever tactical changes on McCain's part. I also contrasted the Republican cakewalk of a primary with the fiercely competitive Democratic primary, in which both of the main candidates smashed fundraising records and drew record numbers of voters.

Ignoring the personal attributes that the pundits used to measure McCain's chances, I proposed an alternative thesis: "a well-run primary campaign augurs a well-run general election campaign, and the inverse, a poorly-run primary campaign augurs a poorly-run general election campaign." As McCain's media popularity and perceptions of his honesty veered wildly, as unpredictable events changed voters' priorities, as independents swayed to and fro, one factor remained constant: John McCain ran an unfocused, cash poor, badly planned, bitterly divided campaign. Obama, by contrast, ran an organized, disciplined, creative, well-funded, brilliant campaign, just as he did in the primary. The next time I attempt to gauge a candidate's electability, I know where to look.

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Cross posted at dagblog.com, where the bloggers can see the future. Except that Articleman was wrong about Georgia.

As has been well documented at TPM, John McCain ran a deceitful, jingoistic, superficial, nationalistic campaign which grew ever more incendiary towards the end. But there is one place that McCain did not go. He did not ultimately base his campaign on racial polarization. Yes, there were a few subtle coded messages, and McCain's attacks on Obama's patriotism harbored a racial undercurrent. Yes, there were Muslim rumors and Rev. Wright ads by third parties that McCain failed to publicly deplore. But in the end, McCain did not adopt a full-throated race-baiting strategy that probably would have helped his campaign.

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Walked home last tonight after a joyful election party in the West Village, NYC--good crowd, wonderful friends, incredible victory. Felt a bit melancholy, in the way you do after achieving something for which you have striven for so long. It's my birthday. November 5th. Marvelous birthday gift from the American voters. 37. Strange age to be. People shout gleefully on sidewalks. Cars honk happily on streets. High fives with strangers. Arrive at St. Marks Place in the East Village. Crowd on the corner. Cheering. Stand on a pay phone, take photos. Walk down St. Marks, winding through the crowd. Hapless cops make bullhorn shouts. Useless. People crowd the street, shouting and cheering. Mostly young. Some old. Cabs are trapped, honking, some with joy, some with frustration. Cops try to make way for traffic. Useless. Speak to a man who was arrested then freed, after shouts from the crowd. Cops yield, block off the street for celebration. Someone blasts music. From an apartment? Queen. We Are the Champions. People dance in the street. People dance on the fire escapes. American flags wave. Young men clamber onto cars, wave hands and flags. Crowd chanting: O-ba-ma! O-ba-ma! Crowd singing: O say can you see... Speak to strangers. Dance. Cheer. Take more photos. Watch crowd. Feel alive.

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Contrary to President Bush's assurance, he is not the Decider. We the People are the Deciders. Mr. Bush is a temporary employee to whom we have granted provisional authority to govern on our behalf. We the People make such Decisions infrequently but regularly--every four years. And now it is again time for us to Decide.

Sometimes the Decision may seem inconsequential, a choice between equals, but the consequences of our Decisions inevitably prove that the differences were starker than we imagined. The authority that we grant to these individuals is of such magnitude that even the small choices that they make--the words they choose, the people they hire, the favors they grant, the priorities that they pursue--have great consequences. However much Mr. Bush seemed like Mr. Gore eight years ago, he has led the nation down a very different path than Mr. Gore would have done. The difference cannot be measured by any single policy or historical event. It consists in the accumulation of policies, priorities, appointments, speeches, favors, initiatives, and other actions that Mr. Bush has executed under the authority that we have twice granted him.

The Decision is always a gamble. We can never know how a person will exercise the authority we grant to him or her. The best candidate may be the worst president. Like poker players, we can only make educated choices based on the hands we've been dealt. A low pair will sometimes win; four aces will sometimes lose. But we can play the odds, and we can maximize our chances. What we must not do, if we value the welfare our nation, is to Decide for the wrong reasons. We are not choosing a policy, a friend, a hero, a judge, or an entertainer. We are choosing to hire someone who will make innumerable decisions on our behalf, someone who will affect the lives of billions of people in our country and around the world.

We can perhaps forgive ourselves for the poor choice that we made in 2000. True, we underestimated the consequences of that Decision, but we had little way of knowing that the man we selected would lead us into a disastrous war, cripple the effectiveness of our government, and enact policies that would so drastically undermine our interests and welfare. But we have no excuse for 2004. Knowing full well what Mr. Bush had wrought in his first four years, we extended his authority for another four. We chose him because we liked him more than Mr. Kerry, because he said the words that we wanted to hear, because we allowed him to exploit our fears. We have paid dearly for that Decision and will continue to pay for years to come.

This year, we must do better. We cannot know for certain whether Mr. Obama will be a more capable leader than Mr. McCain, but we have many reasons to believe so. Over the course of his career and in this campaign, Mr. Obama has demonstrated solid temperament, sound judgment, a deep and nuanced intelligence, strong leadership, and broad appeal. He aims to right the errors produced by Mr. Bush's incompetence: the imprudent war that killed millions, cost trillions, and produced little; the tax cuts for the richest among us that have exploded our deficit and amplified the economic inequalities that divide us; the politicization of our government; and the secrecy meant to hide choices we abhor.

In contrast to Mr. Obama, Mr. McCain has been erratic, often confused, prone to anger, and out of touch. The policies that he has favored committed us to the terrible war, bankrupt our government, and undermined the "fundamentals" of our economy. The people that he has hired, most notably Ms. Palin, have exhibited notable incompetence. He has belied a reputation for integrity and substance with a campaign that has exploited our worst instincts and sought to distract us from matters of importance.

It is time to Decide. We can be guided by our fears and prejudices and bet the weak hand. Or we can place our bet on the man who has given us so many reasons to believe that he will work effectively on our behalf to improve our lives and make our nation greater. We the People are responsible for our future. We are the Deciders.

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For those in the New York area, I will be hosting an election party at the Village Lantern, 167 Bleecker at Sullivan St. In D.C., TPM member IIOOII will be watching the results at Bar 1331 on Pennsylvania Ave.. For those of you who are watching from home, tune in to dagblog.com to see Articleman live blog the results with his usual wit and insight.

WE INTERRUPT THIS ELECTION WITH A VERY IMPORTANT MESSAGE

A few weeks ago, I sacrificed my technicolor-blinky-shirt for Obama. In the first ever Shirt Off for Obama, supporters and detractors of the shirt had the opportunity to donate in favor of saving the shirt or losing the shirt. In an extremely close and contentious election that made the Democratic primary look like beanbag, the Anti-Shirts won narrowly (though some have faulted me for a Gore-like hesitance to contest the results). More importantly, we raised $1,382 for the Obama campaign and $200 for Jim Martin's Senate campaign in Georgia. I shed the shirt for a picture of myself on a playground bouncy horse. TPM then upgraded its software, and I lost my head.

WANTED FOR
Assault, Abduction, Bigamy,
Multi-Self-Recommending
Armed and Dangerous

Some of you have since inquired about the whereabouts of the shirt. I'm sorry to relate this sad tale. The shirt had grown accustomed to its celebrity status and in truth had become something of a diva. In it's heyday, the shirt partied with Monica Lewinsky's dress and John Edward's haircut. There were also rumors of wild orgies with most of Sarah Palin's wardrobe. To have been cast off like an old blinking rag was a great blow to its ego. It started drinking heavily with the other TPM rejects, including LisB's flashing hair and my decapitated head as well a number of blog posts that didn't survive the software upgrade. Tattered and faded, lacking any means to support itself, the shirt turned to crime, kidnapping stray socks from the laundry and prostituting them in thrift stores of ill repute. I lost track of it soon after but heard that it was consorting with some sordid characters. Alas, I had no idea how sordid. The shirt has resurfaced. I have the link to its location, but I warn you, it's not a pretty sight. I offer the link only as a cautionary tale so that others may avoid a similar fate. Here is the shirt.

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I would like to try to redeem this sad post with happier thoughts. For any of you in the New York area, I will be hosting an election party at the Village Lantern at 167 Bleecker at Sullivan St. Please come by to watch the action and if all goes well, celebrate like crazy people. Here is the full description. I also encourage anyone else throwing or attending an election party, or even hanging out in a bar, to announce it for fellow TPMers in the comments section. And for those of you who are watching from home, tune in to dagblog.com to see Articleman live blog the results with his usual wit and insight.

Late update: There is a possibility that a German news station will cover the election party, which is surely very exciting for the three of you who watch German news. I'm not sure which station but will update this page If it looks like it will happen.