Enraged bloggers took to the streets and information superhighways today to protest ABC News's lack of substance in yesterday's debate. After weeks of posting about nothing but Tuzla, "bittergate", and Reverend Wright, the bloggers excoriated George Stephanopoulos and the other moderators for asking the candidates about nothing but Tuzla, "bittergate", and Reverend Wright. When challenged about about apparent hypocrisy of these demands, one blogger, who goes by the screen name, one_blogger, responded,

That's not true. We post about other things...like trolls.

Asked whether George Stephanopoulos should have asked the candidates about trolls, the blogger responded,

GFYWAIR, m'tard!!!!

Roughly translated, this means: Take a hike, bozo.

Other bloggers acknowledged that it would have been inappropriate to ask the candidates about trolls but argued that the lack of substance was one-sided. One blogger, who goes by the screen name, another_blogger, explained:

It was a hit job. Question after insubstantial question criticizing Obama. There should be an equal amount of insubstantial criticism directed at both candidates.

Asked for an example of balanced insubstantial criticism, the blogger referred to the recommended reader posts at TalkingPointsMemo.com, which are evenly divided between insubstantial criticisms of Hillary Clinton and insubstantial criticisms of trolls.

ABC News shrugged off the controversy and vowed to continue its policy of substance-free journalism. The bloggers, seeking to escalate the standoff, have vowed to boycott ABC News. Since most bloggers already boycott Fox News, CBS News, NBC News, CNN, and most other major news outlets for various infractions, they risk suffering from severe news deprivation. A real medical doctor, who specializes in the news-related pathologies, expressed concern:

Addicted bloggers can survive for weeks without news, but it takes a toll on their nervous systems. Their posts begin to take on incestuous qualities, as they start to write about nothing but other blogs. They lose their friends, their spouses, and their pets, until their only social interactions come from similarly afflicted victims. Often, they try to escape and write anguished farewell posts, only to return a few days later with disturbing new avatars.

Asked if there was any cure, the doctor responded:

Turn off the computer.

Disclaimer: Serious post with some math  in it (calling flyonthewall and urbinato)

TPM Election Central recently posted the results of a poll suggesting that most voters believe that super-delegates should back the winner of the popular vote. We all know that a pledged delegate win is all but impossible for Clinton, but leaving aside the importance of the popular vote in the minds of superdelegates, what are Clinton's chances of actually winning it?

Before answering the question, a few caveats:

1) The popular vote is not sanctioned by the Democratic party as a way of choosing a nominee. Nor do I endorse it. I address the question only because it may affect the decisions of some superdelegates.

2) The vote described here is not truly "popular" because voter turn out is much lower in caucus states, so their representation is diminished. IA, NV, ME, WA have not even released official totals.

3) Leaving aside the question of FL, there is simply no good way to truly gauge the popular vote in MI. According to the vote count, Obama has zero supporters in MI. I assume that the supers know this, and I will let them decide for themselves how to weigh vote counts from FL and MI.

All the numbers that you need can be found here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Counting only official results, Obama leads by 717K out of a total 26M. Estimating the caucus states of IA, NV, ME, and WA would improve his lead to 827K. Counting FL would bring him down to 533K, and counting MI would bring him down to 204K.

So what is Clinton likely to accomplish in the remaining states? Due to a surge in new registrations, there are now 4.2M registered Democrats in PA, which has a closed primary. Not all registered voters will turn out, of course. It's difficult to gauge that number. In OH, 45% of registered voters participated in the primary, though the percentage of registered Democrats is probably higher. To be conservative, let's assume a very high 60% turnout for registered Democrats. Polls show Clinton leading Obama by an average of 6%. Simple calculation: 4.2M x 60% x 6%= 151K. Not enough to surpass Obama's lead even if you were to count MI.

But now let's look to NC with 2.6M registered Democrats and Obama leading in the polls by 16%. NC allows independents to vote, so the percentage of votes to registered Democrats will likely be even higher than in PA, but to conservative, let's use the same formula: 2.5M x 60% x 16% = 240K. If the polls hold, Obama will actually extend his lead after the NC primary.

The polls for the remaining states are too limited and variable to come up with a calculation, but roughly speaking, Obama's gains in OR will likely neutralize any narrow losses in KY and IN. And for some perspective, all the other states put together, including OR, KY, and IN, have fewer registered voters than PA and NC combined.

In short, it seems very unlikely that Clinton will make much headway in the popular vote if she makes any headway at all.

Perhaps you've heard of Barack Obama's shocking condescension to the good working people of small town Pennsylvania and Hillary Clinton's courageous defense of their blissful collective mental health. We Democrats, it seems, have a problem connecting with the happy little working people, which is a bit of a shame because their votes would really come in helpful this November. They used to be our little people, you know, before Reagan stole them away from us with his family values sham. I think it's time to get them back. That's why I've created the Biennial Blue-Collar Boot Camp for Elite Democrats. Our intense regimen is designed to transform progressive political candidates from snobby elites to regular guys and gals in an efficient and scientific manner. After 48 hours at our facility in the backwoods west of Scranton, we guarantee that your appeal among hicks, rednecks, trailer trash, and assorted working class riff-raff will improve by at least 57%.

2008 Biennial Blue-Collar Boot Camp for Elite Democrats

ELIGIBILITY: Open to registered Democrats only

COST: $8000 (cash upfront required)

SCHEDULE:

Saturday

9:00am Registration

9:30am Pledge of Allegiance. Cheat sheets provided.

10:00am Voice Training. Perfect diction can be scary for people can't speak properly. Our voice trainers will help you discover your inner drawl and teach you how to violate grammatical rules in a folksy manner. They will also help you to adopt colloquial idioms and mispronounce big words convincingly.

12:00pm Lunch: Food Stamp Simulation. Ramen noodles, macaroni and cheese, peanut butter sandwiches

1:00pm Resume Padding. Not everyone is fortunate enough to be the son of a mill worker. We'll help you emphasize those aspects of your biography that appeal to the working class. Childhood vacations in Appalachia? Grandparents from Kansas? Shot your sister with a BB gun? These elements can become the critical foundations for your new working class background.

2:30 Talking Points. We'll help you choose the right issues to enhance your blue-collar appeal, including NAFTA repeal, immigration restrictions, gun rights, and big ass 10 commandments monuments in every courtroom, classroom, and bowling alley. We'll also give you tips on post-election strategies to ensure that none of these positions actually pass, but the opposition party receives the blame.

3:30pm Sensitivity Training. Our role-playing exercises will help you to put yourself in the shoes of working class people so that you can avoid condescending and insensitive remarks.

4:30pm Recreation: Snowmobiling (weather permitting). Experience the intense joy of hurtling at 100 mph and 120 decibels through a previously silent forest covered in once virgin snow.

6:30pm Dinner: Small Game Night. Smorgasbord of squirrel, possum, rabbit, and raccoon

8:30pm Beer Tasting. Learn to appreciate the subtle differences between PBR, Coors, Miller, and Budweiser.

9:30pm Recreation: Bowling


Sunday

8:30am Breakfast: Grits

9:30am Church

11:00am Religious Study. You don't have to be a Bible scholar to impress working class people with your faith. Solemn words about the importance of God in your life and a few well-placed biblical allusions are sufficient establish your religious bona fides. We'll also help you find the right church. Baptism and Methodism are preferred, but any mainstream Protestant sect other than Episcopalianism or Quakerism is acceptable. Catholicism is not ideal but will suffice. Contrary to received opinion, it's OK to belong to a black church, but it must be a happy, gospel-singing black church, as seen in movies like Sister Act. If you belong to any other faith, we recommend that you consider conversion. Islam and Sikhism (which, as both involve turbans, are indistinguishable to working people) are right out.

12:00pm Lunch: Adventures With Grease. Fried chicken, fried steak, fried catfish, fried green tomatoes, fried freedom fries. For dessert, fried Snickers bars and fried ice cream.

1:00pm Fashion Make-Over. This lesson is loads of fun. Replace that tie or pantsuit with jeans and a sports jersey. Cowboy boots optional. The trick is authenticity. Done incorrectly, you end up looking like a New York hipster. Our hair stylists will show you how to get by with a $10 haircut. We also recommend that African-American participants undergo some skin-lightening treatment.

2:30pm Lecture: The Nature of the Working Class Mind. Top psychologists discuss the latest advances in cognitive study of the mind of the working person. The cortex is generally smaller than those of elites and atrophied from lack of use. The emotional centers are neurologically bound to key issues, like gun ownership and immigration. We'll show you how to stimulate these nerve centers with appropriate application of key words and phrases.

3:30pm Hunting 101. We'll teach you to hunt grouse, partridge, deer, and small varmints. Game will be confined to cages and heavily sedated, so you're guaranteed to bag something.

5:30 Sports Appreciation. Learn the finer points of popular working class spectator events, including Nascar, monster truck rallies, pro-wrestling, and blowing shit up.

6:30pm Celebratory Dinner: McDonald's

8:00pm Campfire: Gather with your fellow candidates to sing Christmas jingles and classic participatory chants, including "Tastes Great, Less Filling" and "Wazzup!". Group hug.