Disclaimer: Sincere post

If Obama wins the nomination, Clinton has said that she will support Obama, and I'm sure that she will, but will she actually want him to win?

I'd like to highlight a passage from the Still In It to Win It Time article:

Clinton believes Obama's support is largely a mirage--a bunch of true believers whose passion might help him cinch the nomination, but that may prove an insufficient bedrock for winning a general election when the spell might be broken by tough questions about national-security credentials, economic-policy plans and rich experience. She can't stop from shaking her head in disbelief when longtime friends who are elected officials inform her that they are going to endorse Obama and were chiefly convinced by their children's enthusiasm for his candidacy.

This is obviously a reporter's interpretation, but if accurate, it worries me. If Clinton's chief concern with Obama's candidacy is his electability, then she may not be very incentivized to help him win the general election. If he were to lose, her position would be vindicated, and she could cry, "I told you so," to all those who doubted her. Such a tendency is very human, unfortunately, and I'm sure that we've all experienced this variety of schadenfreude.

Clinton is too disciplined and devoted to progressive issues to consciously try to sabotage Obama's candidacy, but I worry that her support will be tepid. The Democrats will need as much enthusiasm as Clinton can muster to heal this rift and bring her supporters to Obama's side in the general election.

It had to happen sooner or later. In a recent press release, the Hillary Clinton campaign has complained that the TPM reader recommendation process is unfair:

We have serious concerns that the recommendation process at TPM disenfranchises people who would like to recommend posts but cannot because they have children who monopolize their computers or because they're too old to figure out how to turn on their computers. We believe that there should be an alternative mail-in process for people with limited computer access to recommend posts. Posts should also be allowed to stay on the recommendation list for five days to allow time for the mail-in recommendations to be delivered and processed. Furthermore, we ask TPM to investigate many credible reports of posters using false identities to defraud TPM readers. Finally, we expect Josh Marshall to finance this investigation and the mail-in recommendations, since he's responsible for creating this mess.

Asked to comment, the Obama campaign has said that they will abide by TPM rules but have voiced concern over the reliability of a mail-in vote.

Disclaimer: Sincere post

I'm troubled by Josh's "Big Trouble" post about the poll suggesting that 19% of Obama supporters and 28% of Clinton supporters would choose McCain over the other candidate. Whether or not these sentiments will survive the general election campaign and impact the Democratic nominees changes, they are nonetheless saddening and a little baffling, so I'm going to try to explore the underlying causes based on my own feelings and my experiences with other posters on this site.

In order to understand what factors might make a Democrat rationally choose McCain over the other candidate, let's first rule out the alternatives.

1. Electability - One's reason for preferring one Dem over the other may be electability, but obviously, that can't be a reason to vote McCain because that vote simply makes the candidate less electable.

2. Policy - Whether one prefers Clinton's policies or Obama's, their policy differences cannot rationally lead someone to choose McCain over the Democratic opponent. McCain's voting history and campaign plans make the respective voting histories and campaign plans of Clinton and Obama look almost identical by comparison. On taxes, on economic stimulus, on Iraq, and on health care, McCain is simply on the opposite end of the spectrum. If you cite policy differences with one but not both of the candidates as a reason for choosing McCain, I can only assume that there's some other reason that you're not articulating. (Ask yourself, if Hillary were to swap plans with Obama, who would you vote for?)

3. Legislative Effectiveness - You could agree with many of a candidate's positions but feel that the candidate will not be able to implement these positions. Obama supporters tend to think that Clinton is too divisive to get her policies through Congress. Clinton supporters tend to think that Obama will water down his policies in the interest of unity. But even if one candidate would be less effective than the other, they'd still be more effective at implementing Democratic priorities than McCain. The weakest plans that Clinton or Obama would be able to pass and the most moderate appointments they would be able to make would still be preferable to McCain's policies and appointments.

4. Second Chances - I see some posts from people speculating that a McCain win in 2008 would open the door to another run by their candidate in 2012, but this just begs the question. Why do you love your candidate so much or hate the other one so much that you would elect a Republican for 4 years on the chance that your candidate could win the nomination and beat him in 2012?

5. Supporters - I often see people comment on TPM that they hate Obama's supporters, not that they hate Obama. Leaving aside the perennial question of whose supporters are meaner, voting for McCain out of spite for the other candidate's supporters hardly seems rational.

So what are the rational reasons for preferring McCain over the other candidate?

1. Executive Effectiveness - Simply put, is the candidate capable of running the government? People who buy into Clinton's "3am phone call" argument may believe that McCain is better suited to protect our national security than Obama. Obama supporters point to Clinton's poll-driven policy and campaign mistakes as evidence that she won't be able to govern effectively. Personally, I don't believe that either position is correct, but they at least offer rational reasons for voting for McCain. But is it your primary reason? Obama haters, if Obama had Clinton's experience, would you have voted for him? Clinton haters: if Clinton had dumped Mark Penn and run a strategically flawless campaign, would you have voted for her?

2. Character - My gut tells me that perceived character difference is the biggest factor. When TPM posters complain about Democratic candidates, it's most often about dirty tricks, self-serving tactics, mendacity, race exploitation, integrity, duplicity, etc. I will not get into the question of who's character is worse, and I encourage commenters to avoid this subject as well.

The question I would like to address is why do we have such different perceptions of the candidates' characters? We don't tend to disagree about the facts, but our interpretations of them are radically different. Some see Bill Clinton's, "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina," as an attempt to exploit race divisions within the party. Others see it as a simple statement of fact. Some see Obama's description of his grandmother as a "typical white person" as a disloyal and even racist criticism. Others see it a personal attempt to grapple with racial divisions in our society. Some see negative media stories on Clinton as biased media attempts to smear her. Others see respectable and honest journalism. Some see media criticism of Obama's relationship with Wright as a double standard. Other see an issue of profound concern.

You get the picture. These are all examples of projection. We rely on limited evidence and context to draw conclusions about the intentions of the candidates, their supporters, and journalists. In all these cases, proof is impossible. You can't prove that an implication is intentional, you can't prove what someone is thinking, and you can't prove media bias. In the face of such ambiguity, we show remarkable abilities to project favorably on candidates with which we identify and unfavorably on their opponents. It may seem perfectly clear to you in your own mind, but you're not a logic machine. Biases and wishful thinking affect everyone's perception.

Over time, the animosity you feel grows. The more perceived instances of bad behavior by the other side, the more strongly you identify with your candidate, which then makes you even more likely to interpret the other side as behaving badly. The longer this goes on, the more anger you feel, and the more skewed your perception. Yes, both candidates have gone more negative as the race approaches the end game. But we've changed too. I can honestly say that I am far more likely to perceive an event unfavorably towards Clinton than at the start of the race. You could probably even track the level of my animosity through my TPM posts.

It's striking to talk to people who have no stake in the race. I've tried to represent the reasons for my outrage to neutral friends. Often, they just don't get it. They shrug their shoulders and say that politics is politics and that they'll happily support either candidate. Partly, they've just paid less attention. But to a greater extent, their ambivalence allows them to have a less emotional and more reasonable response to information.

I will try myself to maintain that levelheadedness, to keep an open mind to alternative interpretations, and I encourage the TPM community to do the same. I think that will make this remainder of this race much easier to bear.

(Though I retain the right to be snarky when appropriate.)

This is a three part series. I recommend that you first read Part I, or you will be confused and slightly disoriented. You may experience sensations of nausea.

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I'm now in the rehearsal studio with the Clintons. I'm impressed with their tango. Hillary in particular seems poised and disciplined. They've been drilling the same step for half an hour. Bill seems like he's fading a bit, and they've agreed to take a break to answer a few questions:

Genghis: Hillary, how do you feel about exchanging the remaining primaries for a dance off?

Hillary: Oh, I'm very excited. People think that I like attacking Barack all the time, but honestly, I'm sick of all the negativity. This will be a much more fun way to win the nomination. It's also a chance for the American people to see my fun, passionate side.

Genghis: I didn't know that you had a fun, passionate side.

Hillary: [Cackles] Just wait until we hit the dance floor. You're going to see some fun, and you're going to see some passion.

Genghis: Bill, be honest with me. Does she have a fun, passionate side?

Bill: You know, Genghis, Hillary is very hard worker, and we've got a great relationship on the dance floor.

Genghis: Hillary, many Democrats would like to see you dance with Barack. What do you think about that?

Hillary: I think that Barack and I would make a great team. He'd be terrific follower.

Bill: And I could dance with Michelle.

Hillary: Actually, Bill will be locked in a closet for the duration of my administration.

Bill: With Michelle?

Hillary: Absolutely not, but Silda Spitzer has requested that we put Eliot in there with you.

Genghis: Um, what about the breakdance competition? Hillary, I didn't even know that you could break.

Hillary: Actually, I have lot of breakdancing experince. During Bill's administration, Sinbad and I started breakdancing initiatives in battle zones like Bosnia, Nothern Ireland, and Detroit. But I don't want to set expectations too high. The breakdance is Barack's competition. The ballroom and freestyle are really the most important competitions and speak to my ability to win a national election.

Bill: You know, Jesse Jackson was also a great breakdancer.

Genghis: So Hillary, you're confident that you'll win this thing.

Hillary: Absolutely. I've been dancing in Washington for 35 years. You know, John McCain is also a great dancer, and I look forward to tangoing with him. I'm just not sure Barack is ready for this kind of competition.

Genghis: I'll let you get back to your rehearsal, but I have to ask you about your performance piece and the Harping Hydra of Hillary Hate. How did you come up with the concept?

Hillary: Well, as you know, I get a lot of abuse from the press and from other people. Sometimes it just makes me so mad! And you can't say all the things that you really want to say, so you know, I fantasize. I imagine myself with a machete, just hacking all their heads off. This piece allows me to express the anger that I feel and to act out my fantasy, but it's art you know, so it's OK. There are a lot of Americans who have to fight every day just to get by, and I think that they'll be able to really relate to this piece.

Genghis: I'm sure they will. I wish you the best of luck.

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I'm with the Obamas now at their rehearsal space. The Obamas are working on the Macarena. Barack tries to teach me, but I'm hopeless. We take a break for a little Q-and-A...

Genghis: Barack, we've been hearing from Hillary that you're not ready for the competition. How do you respond to that?

Barack: Genghis, I respect Hillary's long career and her dancing abilities, but I think that most Americans understand that dancing is about the moves, not the experience. Understand this: In 2002, President Bush asked the Legislature to do a little hokey pokey and turn itself around. Hillary put her whole self in. That's what it's all about.

Genghis: What about the criticism that you're all moves and no substance?

Barack: Just moves? Was it just moves when Fred and Ginger tore up the screen in The Gay Divorcee? Just moves when John Travolta discoed our brains out in Saturday Night Fever? Just moves when Patrick Swayze dirty danced in the lake with Jennifer Grey before she got that nose job, and she was wearing a white cotton top...

Genghis: OK...let's move on. Would you be willing to dance with rogue leaders like Ahmadinejad of Iran without preconditions?

Barack: Understand this, I would dance without preconditions, although Senator Clinton is right that there has to be preparation. It is very important for us to make sure that there was a program, and on that program were dances that reprepresent our interests, such as the Macarena and YMCA and the Safety Dance. And that preparation might take some time.

Genghis: What about Vladmir Putin? Can you handle him? They say that his YMCA routine is unsurpassed among world leaders.

Barack: I'm not worried about Putin. He was a KGB agent. By definition he doesn’t have soul.

Genghis: I believe that's Hillary's line.

Barack: Whatever.

Genghis: Speaking of soul, I hear that you're quite the b-boy. Where did you learn to break?

Barack: Hawaii. We had to break on the beach, which wasn't easy. Too much friction. There's still sand embedded in my scalp. I'll discuss this more in my next memoir, Wet Dreams of My Son. But my greatest breakdancing inspiration was Reverend Wright, who is like a like a crazy, racist, politically embarrassing, breakdancing uncle to me.

Genghis: Interesting. So I've heard that you intend to put 50,000 performers in an olympic size pool. Is that accurate? I have to say, I don't see how that's possible.

Barack: We're not releasing our numbers right now, but let's just say that there will be a lot of supporters in that pool. Understand this, in Washington people like to tell you what you can't do. They said that we couldn't win the nomination with a message of hope. Now they're saying that we can't fit 50,000 people in a pool. Tell him, Michelle...

Michelle: Yes, we can.

Genghis: Have you ever done this before?

Barack: As an organizer in Chicago, I set up a synchronized swimming team to offer hope to poor kids. The only available pool on the south side was a wheelbarrow of dirty water. Thousands of kids wanted to participate, so we had to get creative.

Genghis: Well, I look forward to seeing the routine. One last question, many Democrats would love to see you partner with Hillary on the dance floor, and Hillary has indicated that she's open to the idea. How about you?

Barack: I don't get that, Genghis. First she says that I can't dance, then she wants me to be her dance partner. What kind of invitation is that?

Genghis: As President would you choose Hillary as a dance partner?

Barack: I respect Hillary. She would be on anyone's dance list. But I don't think that we dance to the same drum, exactly.

Genghis: In other words?

Barack: Tell him, Michelle...

Michelle: No she can't.

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Tune in tomorrow for live blogging of the exciting conclusion to Dance Dance Nomination, Part III.

Apologies for the repost, BevD and anyone else who read this last week. If fell so quickly off the recent posts that I don't think anyone saw it. If you like the post, please recommend. Two more parts coming this week.

Back in the warm, fuzzy days of January in South Carolina, Barack Obama was asked whether Bill Clinton deserved to be called the first black president. He replied "I would have to, you know, investigate more of Bill's dancing abilities...before I accurately judge whether he was in fact a brother," to which Hillary Clinton replied, "I'm sure that can be arranged."

Rejoice, readers! It has been arranged. Concerned about increasingly bitter campaigns, further hemoraging of campaign advisers, and the threat of nationwide tantrums if FL and MI primary votes are counted, discounted, caucaused, mailed, text-messaged or what-have-you*, Howard Dean has proposed a novel solution: a dance-off. A number of superdelegates have already hopped onto to the dance-off bandwagon, and under pressure, both candidates have agreed participate. Some detractors feel that a dance-off is not a valid way to choose a nominee, but in the wake of the Texas primacaucus, the Democratic leadership seems to have decided that "validity" is pile of crap.

* I personally advocated for a blog-off in which both candidates would post, and the winner would be decided by reader recommendations, but the technology was thought to be too unreliable.

The winner will be selected by a panel of judges comprised of neutral Democratic statesmen: Al Gore, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, and P. Diddy. The American Internet audience will also be encouraged to register their preferences by writing in comments to this blog. The competition will have three parts: ballroom, breakdance, and freestyle.

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In the ballroom segment, the candidates will be partnered with their spouses. Paying tribute to Hillary's support among Hispanics, the Clintons have selected the Uruguayan Tango. Their decision, however, has caused something of diplomatic kerfluffle with Argentina. President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner was reportedly miffed that the Argentine Tango was not selected, and there were rumors in the Uruguyan press that the choice presaged a free trade agreement with Uruguayan (URFTA). Bill Clinton was promptly dispatched to Buenos Aires to meet with Christina's husband, former president Nestor Kirchner. Bill and Nestor took in a soccer match, and after a few cervezas, the hard feelings were assuaged. The two power couples have reportedly planned a double date at a neutral location to be determined. The Drudge Report reports that they plan to play putt-putt golf in Panama, but there have been also rumors of strip-Twister in Guatamala.

The Obamas will lead a small group of dancers in what they're calling "An American Medley", which will include the Macarena, the Horah, country line dancing, and YMCA. According to a statement from the Obama campaign, "the American Medley will unite young and old, black and white, red and blue, male and female, gay and straight, fat and thin, jock and nerd, latte drinker and malt swigger... [Editor: And so on, ad nauseum]

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The breakdance segment will be solo a performance, but Bill has asked for the opportunity to prove his "blackness" with an interlude during Hillary's performance, and Barack has graciously accepted. The routines are still being worked out, but Barack has promised to execute his signature moves: "Yes I Can", "The Audacious Hope Monger", and a new creation, "My Grandmother Is A Racist Too". No one has ever seen Hillary break, but her routine sounds intriguing with moves called "Big State", "Experienced", "Richardson Is A #$%@&!!!!", and a friendly challenge to Barack, "I Will Destroy You". Bill's interlude will be a feelgood nostalgia routine to include variations Michael Jackson's famous classics, "W Is For Worm" and "The Hillbot".

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Both candidates promise to go all out for the freestyle competition. Barack has been spending lavishly from his campaign chest on an olympic size pool for a massive synchronized swimming routine. There are some rumors that he plans to fit as many as 50,000 performers into the pool. The routine will emphasize his popular grassroots support and lithe young bodies. We're hoping that Barack shows enough taste not to wear a speedo himself.

Clinton, by contrast, is going avant-garde with a performance art piece featuring a many-headed Mexican pinata called the Harping Hydra of Hillary Hate. Each head of the hydra will bear a likeness to one of her enemies. She and a sombrero clad Hispanic child will hack off the heads of the hydra with machetes while screaming guttural war cries. This piece is designed to showcase Hillary's strength as a fighter and her opposition to Nafta, while maintaining allegiance to Hispanic Americans. She's been mum on whose likenesses will be on the Hydra, but a knowledgeable insider has expressed certainty that Chris Mathews and Maureen Dowd will be among the victims along with the expected Republican targets: George Bush, Dick Cheney, Karl Rove, and Ken Starr. The Republican head chopping is sure to be a crowd pleaser at this Democratic event. Let's just hope that Hillary keeps it friendly, and we don't see Barack's head on the Hydra.

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Tune in tomorrow to read about the exciting preparations in Dance Dance Nomination, Part 2.