Lost in the argument about whose health care plan is more universal is
the more important question of who will be more likely to get his or
her health care plan--and other policies--passed. The Dems are likely
to pick up seats in both houses, but they're unlikely to capture a
veto-proof majority in the Senate, which means that a Democratic
president will have to win over some Republicans and make sure to keep
all the Democrats in line.
One of Hillary Clinton's primary arguments against Barack Obama is that
she is the candidate who can best "deliver change" due to her
experience and to having learned from past mistakes.
Some argue that Clinton won't be effective because she's too partisan
to work with Republicans. This argument is right but for the wrong
reason. Clinton's partisanship waxes and wanes with the popularity of
the Democrats (or rather the unpopularity of the Republicans) and her
political aspirations. When the Republicans controlled congress and the
2008 election was far in the future, Clinton was actually quite
effective at establishing relationships with Republican colleagues and
working with them to accomplish objectives. From the NYT 4/29/06:
With Senator Trent Lott, she worked on improving the
Federal Emergency Management Agency. With Representative Tom DeLay it
was foster children. Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House,
jumped in with her on a health care initiative, and the Senate majority
leader, Bill Frist, was a partner on legislation concerning
computerized medical records. The list goes on: Senator Robert Bennett
on flag-burning; Senator Rick Santorum on children's exposure to
graphic images; Senator John Sununu on S.U.V. taillights; Senator Mike
DeWine on asthma.
So Clinton will work with Republicans. The question is, will
Republicans work with Clinton? When she was just a junior senator in a
Republican congress working on bi-partisan issues, it was not a
problem. But as a Democratic president trying to push controversial
policies though congress, it would be an entirely different story.
Hillary Clinton has been a bogeyman to the Republican base for 15
years. Any Republican legislators who vote with Clinton on high-profile
controversial issues would be blasted by right-wing pundits, risk
attacks from conservative challengers, and alienate their bases.
Conversely, Republicans who tie up Clinton bills and nominations would
be cheered for sticking it to the president that conservatives love to
hate. Bill Clinton's health care plan failed for many reasons, but
chief among them was the fact that Republicans tied the plan to Hillary
Clinton and so were able to rally in opposition to it by demonizing
her. I fear that there would be many more such doomed plans under a Hillary Clinton presidency.
Clinton's second handicap when it comes to getting things done is a
lack of charisma. Charisma is often disparaged as an unimportant
quality--you don't have to want to get a beer with your president as
long as he or she is effective. But charisma plays an important role in
the ability of a president to be effective. Approval ratings reflect
performance and also events that a president cannot necessarily
control, such as economic downturns. Charismatic presidents like Bill
Clinton and Ronald Reagan (the "teflon" president) have been able to
maintain high approval ratings even as scandals and negative events
unfold around them. Uncharismatic presidents like George Bush Sr. are
much more likely to see precipitous drops in their approval ratings
when things go poorly. Hillary Clinton would be such a president.
Presidents with low approval ratings are less likely to be able to get
things done, as we're now seeing with Bush Jr. Their opponents are more
likely to fight them, their allies are less likely to support them,
their parties are more likely to lose midterm elections, depriving them
of the majority necessary to accomplish legislative objectives.
Barack Obama, when it comes to Republican appeal and charisma, is the
exact opposite of Hillary Clinton. Despite a voting record that is at
least as progressive as Clinton's, Republicans actually like him. Some
Democrats see his Republican appeal as a turn off, but a president who
appeals to Republicans while pushing a progressive agenda is the best
thing that could possibly happen to the country and the Democratic
party. Obama is the reverse Reagan--an extreme conservative who
appealed to many Democrats. An Obama presidency would mean that "Obama
Republicans" would be an important factor for years to come.
Second, Obama is the most charismatic candidate to run for president
since Ronald Reagan. This charisma should not be dismissed as a "pretty
face". It's a tremendous asset which would enable him to push his
agenda through congress and fill the legislature with Democratic
candidates riding his coattails.
I don't mean to suggest that it would always be easy for Obama or that
he wouldn't encounter fierce opposition at times, but because of
qualities that he has and Clinton lacks, he would as President
encounter significantly less opposition and be much more likely to
defeat it. Thus, Barack Obama , not Hillary Clinton, is the Democratic
candidate who would be most able to get things done.