As an Australian observer of the US political scene, I think one can learn a lot by comparing  Obama and Australian PM Kevin Rudd (who won a landslide election in November last year after eleven long years of rightwing rule by Bush's staunch supporter John Howard). In fact, I suspect Obama's team has copied much of Rudd's tactics very deliberately.

Rudd was heavily criticized during his election campaign for adopting a "me too" policy line on major issues, but this left him able to clearly define differences on very specific topics. Obama did the same thing, at least until the financial crisis made it all irrelevant anyway. For example, both campaigns embraced the status quo on Afghanistan, but highlighted stark differences on Iraq.

On taking power, Rudd made a big show of being bipartisan, just as Obama is doing now. And just like the GOP today, the Australian Liberal/National coalition parties were decimated and in-fighting at the time. So perhaps Rudd's tactics here give an indication of where Obama is now heading?

The Australian Liberals elected a lame leader, Brendan Nelson, who was soon dubbed "the Nightwatchman" (a cricketing reference - a nightwatchman's job is to take the crease, face a few balls before sunset, and then hand over to a better batsman the next morning). Rudd made a big show of bringing Nelson into the limelight, but it was all done on Rudd's terms, often with little or no advance notice given to poor Brendan.

The result was classic wedge politics: Nelson was forced to accept Rudd's bipartisan approaches, or define an unpopular policy position by moving away from them. This lead inevitably to further schisms within the opposition parties.

The formal government apology to indigenous Australians - which Howard had defiantly rejected for so many years - is a classic example. Rudd called Nelson up on stage for an impromptu speech in support of the apology, which Nelson made a mess of by trying to simultaneously placate both the Howardistas and the pro-apology crowd. His party spent the next month arguing over what he should have said.

Of course, Rudd has never invited a Liberal into his cabinet, and the comparisons cannot be stretched too far. I remain far less optimistic about an Obama administration than most TPM readers. But I'm also hopeful that Obama might spring a few surprises - not just on me, but on his Republican colleagues as well.