« Ehud BARACK struts and frets his hour upon the stage. | GD river's Blog | Problem is AIPAC who decides US foreign policy, and the massive nuclear arsenal in the Negev. »
The start of the first global nuclear war
Although the consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran are impossible to predict, the probabilities are clear:
1. A missile attack on Tel Aviv in direct reprisal from Tehran
2. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces
3. A nuclear strike by a shell-shocked Israel against Tehran
4. A massive cut in oil supplies from the Gulf
5. Activation of Iranian cells in Europe and the US to carry out reprisal attacks
6. A global stock-market collapse as oil price surges
7. Radiation induced illness in all Gulf states in addition to economic slump
8. The probability of the nuclear conflict extending into Europe
9. The start of the first global nuclear war
1. A missile attack on Tel Aviv in direct reprisal from Tehran
2. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian forces
3. A nuclear strike by a shell-shocked Israel against Tehran
4. A massive cut in oil supplies from the Gulf
5. Activation of Iranian cells in Europe and the US to carry out reprisal attacks
6. A global stock-market collapse as oil price surges
7. Radiation induced illness in all Gulf states in addition to economic slump
8. The probability of the nuclear conflict extending into Europe
9. The start of the first global nuclear war
Advertisement
Sounds like the MAD doctrine at work. Who's the craziest?
August 31, 2009 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
We still get to have a victory party, don't we?
I mean when its all over?
August 31, 2009 11:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
At the risk of being labeled a back-slappin', hail-fellow-well-met, kinda guy... :)
September 1, 2009 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt it would work out quite that way. An Israeli attack would bring Iranian retaliation, but the only way that would lead to an Israeli nuclear response would be if Iran used nuclear weapons first and everyone agrees Iran doesn't have the bomb at present. And "nuclear conflict extending into Europe"? - between who? And why? Nobody in Europe, including Russia, has formal military alliances with either country and no motivation to get involved.
Of course, big hit on oil prices, definitely, even if Iran leaves the Straits alone. And it might, since it would need oil revenue to pay for a conflict with Israel.
One other thing. I'm surprised you don't mention that US troops in Iraq would be literally caught in the middle as Israel and Iran traded missiles and bombing raids over their heads
September 1, 2009 8:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Would North Korea come to the aid of Iran? I read something about a ship recently being intercepted on its way to Iran fron N. Korea; it was allegedly full of weapons.
September 1, 2009 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Could N Korea hit the broad side of a barn? Do they have barns? They have no food, so why would they need barns? Without barns, how can they develop targeting skills?
September 1, 2009 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Somehow I doubt there would be a second global nuclear war.
September 1, 2009 10:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
the only way that would lead to an Israeli nuclear response would be if Iran used nuclear weapons first
When Israel strikes at Iran, Iran will obviously target Tel-Aviv with Shahib. Sejil or Ashura long-range missiles, in reprisal. Israel will then have no option but to use its nuclear option in Dimona. That is why that massive arsenal is there.
September 1, 2009 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't underestimate the crazy.
American soldiers in Iraq would likely be cut off and overrun. The American fleet in the Persian Gulf would probably end up on the bottom of the sea.
September 1, 2009 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Something like that.
We wouldn't know whether to blame our 'enemies' or thank our 'allies' for this, either.
September 1, 2009 7:54 PM | Reply | Permalink