Already too late for John BOLTON - nuclear-armed subs now on station awaiting instructions to strike
It's already too late for Bolton to change his mind. Israeli nuclear-armed submarines are even now awaiting instructions to strike.
Israel probably plans to send nuclear-armed, Dolphin class submarines through the Suez canal, skirting Yemen and Oman , up into the Straits of Hormuz in the Gulf, offshore from the UAE, there to fire warheads directly into Iran. These would have air-support from US supplied, missile loaded, Israeli F16 multi-strike aircraft
'The first subs of this class, equipped with sophisticated navigation and combat systems, were supplied to Israel by Germany in the 1990s, two of them as a gift. At Israel 's request, besides the six 533 mm launching tubes, suitable for short-range cruising missiles, all the subs were outfitted with four additional 659 mm tubes for launching long-range nuclear cruising missiles: the Popeye Turbos, which can strike targets up to 1500 km away. These missiles are a spin-off from the US versions and were manufactured jointly by the Israeli firm Rafael and Lockheed-Martin in an airborne version.
In 2010 the three nuclear attack-submarines were joined by two others, again from Germany . They were built in the Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft AG shipyards at a cost of 1.27 billion dollars, one third of which was financed by the German government. The Jerusalem Post confirms that also the two new ones, whose type-code is U-212, were built according to "Israeli specifications": they are faster (20 knots), have a wider range of action (4,500 km), and are more silent, allowing them to close in on objectives without being spotted.
According to military experts, one of the three Dolphins furnished by Germany patrols the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, the second is deployed in the Mediterranean , while the third is held in reserve. With the addition of two more, the number of those under sail, ready to launch a nuclear attack, has as much as doubled. And this is only part of Israel 's nuclear might, estimated as between 200-400 warheads, equivalent to almost four thousand Hiroshima-type bombs, and whose vectors include over three-hundred US F-16 and F-15 fighter planes and about fifty Jericho II ballistic missiles on mobile launching ramps. These and other nuclear weapons are ready for launching around the clock.'
It is doubtful whether the United Arab Emirates will be happy that a damaging nuclear conflict will be brought to their doorsteps.
The danger to peace of disproportionate nuclear capability
Estimated worldwide nuclear stockpiles, 2009
Country: Total Warheads: Population
Russia:13,000 / 142,000,000
United States:9,400 / 307,000,000
*Israel (undeclared):100 - 400 max / 7,400,000
France:300 / 65,000,000
China:240 / 1,332,000,000
United Kingdom:185 / 62,000,000
India:60 / 1,167,000,000
Pakistan:60 / 167,000,000
North Korea:10 / 24,000,000
Dependent on the true number of undeclared nuclear warheads, Israel could be the 3rd most powerful nuclear state in the world if possessing the maximum estimated number of WMD. In that event she would be twice as powerful as the UK with a demographic just over only 1/10th the size of Britain's.
Undeclared nuclear states (from Wikipedia)
Nuclear weapons and Israel
Israel is not a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and refuses to officially confirm or deny having a nuclear arsenal, or having developed nuclear weapons, or even having a nuclear weapons program. Israel has pledged not to be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the region, but is also pursuing a policy of strategic ambiguity with regard to their possession. In the late 1960s, Israeli Ambassador to the US Yitzhak Rabin informed the United States State Department, that its understanding of "introducing" such weapons meant that they would be tested and publicly declared, while merely possessing the weapons did not constitute "introducing" them. Although Israel claims that the Negev Nuclear Research Center near Dimona is a "research reactor", or, as was originally claimed, a "textile factory," no scientific reports based on work done there have ever been published. Extensive information about the program in Dimona was also disclosed by technician Mordechai Vanunu in 1986.
According to the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Federation of American Scientists, Israel possesses around 75-200 weapons. Imagery analysts can identify weapon bunkers, mobile missile launchers, and launch sites in satellite photographs. Israel may have tested a nuclear weapon along with South Africa in 1979, but this has never been confirmed (see Vela Incident).
On May 26, 2008, former US president Jimmy Carter stated that Israel has "150 or more nuclear warheads" at a press conference at the annual literary Hay festival in Wales.
GD 073109
















Well I am always skeptical of a post that cites the future as the past.
.So I started doing some research to verify the veracity of your claims, particularly that Israel can launch Nukes. Preliminary interneting seems to verify your submarine claims but not necessarily that they are equiped to launch nuclear weapons.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/israel/sub.htm
However I found this LA times report, as well as some Wapo examples that seem to indicate that Israel does indeed have this power.
http://articles.latimes.com/2003/oct/12/world/fg-iznukes12
August 1, 2009 2:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
So what are your thoughts GD?
Do you think its too late? That Bibi is already ordering a nuclear strike? That would be quite a provocative act that would be difficult to defend (to put it extremely mildly).
Or do you think they might be bluffing? Maybe they really don't have nuclear armed subs but with Obama blocking an air route this is a useful stick to wave in the air. Kinda like Saddam's games of keeping his neighbors guessing. Would Egypt really allow them to transport through the Suez? Wouldn't they have to go the long way around?
Yes everybody knows Israel has nukes, but the real question is are they crazy enough to do it? What is their Helen? Their USS Maine? Wouldn't they have to practically blow up one of there own cities with an Iranian bomb to justify the use of Nukes?
Or am I being too dramatic, do you really think they can use nukes against just Iran's nuclear facilities and get away with it? Nukes are a big deal. Is Bibi crazy? And who's side are you on?
August 1, 2009 3:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Check this out . . .
To this question:
If you read the following comment and blog post you may get a better idea about GDs position.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/07/23/cruel_but_necessary_israeli_opinions_about_the_set/index.php#comment-3535390
And this blog post...
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/garthdriver/2009/07/i-am-jewish.php
To me it sounds as if GD is on the side of humanity...
~OGD~
August 1, 2009 4:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Israeli nuclear-armed fleet is already through Suez - with full co-operation from the Egyptian government.
August 1, 2009 5:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't mean to sound accusatory I was just curious as to your motivation, (thanks OGD). But I would like to know what you think? What causes you to think they would do it?
Also in your post you state "Israel probably plans to send nuclear-armed, Dolphin class submarines through the Suez canal" What changed that probably to already. or can you comment?
August 1, 2009 12:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't get it. 2010? I thought this was going to be satire, so maybe I am reading it wrong. Not even Bibi would NUKE them, would he?
August 1, 2009 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink