Frog Leg's Blog

Chapter 15

2008-11-16T23:57:41Z

While watching the Sunday morning news talk shows, I was struck by a certain disconnect. On one hand, you have people (such as Senator Shelby) who don't want for the government to give a blank check to the auto companies, that their needs to be extremely strong oversight, but they were unwilling to give specific examples of what kind of oversight might be sufficient. For them, bankruptcy for the auto companies is a better option. On the other side you have people like Senator Levin who believe that a bailout is absolutely essential, but who really don't understand the need for strict oversight. Even so, both of them were far more helpful than Gettelfinger, the chief of the UAW. Yesterday he commented that workers had made enough concession and no more would be agreed to. Apparently, Gettelfinger has about the same level of attachment to reality that is typically seen in psychiatric wards.

The roundtable discussion later on in Meet the Press was more helpful, but only to a point. Tom Friedman was on it, again doing his best Bob Seger impression (coming up with an insightful catch phrase and then relentlessly beating it into the ground). Katty Kay of BBC was a bit more in the middle, talking about the need of a bailout which was simultaneously very punitive for those in the auto industry (both workers and management).

As usual, both sides are right and both sides are wrong. The oversight for the financial bailout has so far been mainly illusory; nevertheless, a bailout was, and remains, necessary. The question is what is the best structure for the bailout that meets all the necessary goals. Bankruptcy might be a good option, but Chapter 11 bankruptcy will not allow the influx of cash necessary to keep the auto makers open. So the bankruptcy courts are not the best option, at least not as bankruptcy jurisdiction currently exists.

Perhaps the best option then is a dramatic expansion in the jurisdiction of the bankruptcy courts. An entire new set of cases could be given to the bankruptcy courts (the jurisdiction to be created in a new Chapter 15 of the Bankruptcy Code). The bankruptcy courts can, and I believe should, administer the bailout. The advantages are huge:

Coersion: A bankrutptcy court can force companies to do things they couldn't normally do. The union contracts need to be torn up. Ditto for upper management. A special master can be hired to enforce best business practices at different levels of the company.
Supervision: It is in the core institutional competency of the bankruptcy courts to oversee companies which are doing badly. In constrast, a board of oversight is attempting to create the procedures of oversight from nothing at all, without institutional knowledge of how it should be done. In bankruptcy courts, there are established procedures for ferreting out accounting and other malpractices hidden deep within the company books. This way, the bailout money can go directly to where it is needed.

The Executive Office Anti-Spoliation* Act of 2008

2008-11-05T14:16:30Z

I am very concerned about the 2 month long shredding party that is about to commence at the White House. There are too many issues that need a full and fair examination, including

torture
reasons for going to war in Iraq
holding of prisoners at Gitmo
extraordinary rendition

Without the preservation of necessary records, fully examining what went wrong in each of these issues will be impossible. That is why I am calling for Congress to enact legislation to prevent this. The White House should not be left to its own devices when it comes to recordkeeping. Congress, you may be a lame duck, but not nearly as lame as the one at the other end of Penn. Ave., so get something constructive accomplished as soon as you can.

*Spoliation is a legal term which refers to the intentional or reckless destruction of evidence before it can be presented.

The Obama Diet

2008-11-02T18:48:22Z

Very simple. In one weekend:

canvass 197 houses
while walking 6.2 miles
have a 15 minute long conversation with an undecided single mother with 4 children under 5.
get into 2 civil discussions with people not voting for Obama
cause 1 family argument between McCain-supporting father and 3 Obama-supporting voting age children.
thereby losing 3 pounds!

A view from the other side

2008-11-01T23:06:29Z

Below is a GOP email a Republican friend of mind forwarded to me. How wrong can it be? Let me count the ways?

The State of the Campaign

If your television is tuned to cable news as frequently as ours are here at campaign headquarters, you have seen the pundits say John McCain and his campaign are done. And, if you've followed this race since the beginning, this is clearly a song you've heard before. I wanted to take some time today to give you some insight on the state of the race as we see it.

An AP poll released this morning revealed a very telling fact: ONE out of every SEVEN voters is undecided. That means, if 130 million voters turn out on Tuesday, 18.5 million of them have yet to make up their mind. With that many votes on the table and the tremendous movement we've seen in this race, I believe we are in a very competitive campaign.

Here's why:

All the major polls have shown a tightening in the race and a significant narrowing of the numbers. In John McCain's typical pattern, he is closing strong and surprising the pundits. We believe this race is winnable, and if the trajectory continues, we will surpass the 270 Electoral votes needed on Election Night.

    * National Polls: Major polls last week showed John McCain trailing by double-digit margins - but by the middle of this week, we were within the margin of error on four national tracking surveys. In fact, the Gallup national tracking survey showed the race in a virtual tie 2 days this week.
    * State Polls:
    *
    * Iowa - Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. We took Obama's lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain's column.
    *
    * The Southwest - It is no secret that Republican candidates in the Southwest have to focus on winning over enough Latino and Hispanic voters in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado to carry them to victory. John McCain has overcome challenges Republicans face, and has made up tremendous ground in these states with these voters. For these voters, the choice has become clear, and you have seen a big change in the numbers. John McCain is now winning enough voters to perform within the margin of error - putting these states within reach.
    *
    * Colorado - Barack Obama tried to outspend our campaign in Colorado during the early weeks of October and finish off our candidate in Colorado. However, after our visit early this week, we saw a tremendous rebound in our poll position, and Colorado is back on the map.
    *
    * Ohio and Pennsylvania - Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio. Senator McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning non-stop in these key battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pumped up our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our position in these states is strong and undecided voters continue to have a very favorable impression of our candidate.

Obama campaign faces tremendous structural challenges in the final days of this campaign

    * Obama has a challenge hitting 50%: Barack Obama has not reached the 50% threshold in almost any the battleground state. He consistently is performing in the 45-48% range. When we look closely at the primary votes, we see a history of a candidate whose Election Day performance is often at or behind his final polling numbers.If this is true, our surge will leave Obama with even or under 50% of the vote on Election Day.
    * Early Vote: The Obama campaign has promised that their early vote and absentee efforts will change the composition of the electorate. They have sold the press on a story that first time voters will turn out in droves this election cycle. Again, the facts undermine their argument. In our analysis of early voting and absentee votes to date: The composition of the electorate has not changed significantly and most folks who have voted early are high propensity voters who would have voted regardless of the high interest in this campaign.
    * Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win.

The Final Barnstorm

    * On Monday, we will have a 14 state rally with our candidates crisscrossing the country trying to turn out our voters and sway the final undecided voters. Governor Palin will hit Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and Alaska in the final day of campaigning, while Senator McCain will travel from Tampa, Florida, to Virginia, then Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and finish the night in Prescott, Arizona. The enthusiasm and excitement we generate on Monday will be the electricity that powers our 'Get Out the Vote' efforts on Tuesday.

On the Ground

    * Our field organization has tremendous energy and is out-performing the Bush campaign at the same time in 2004. This week our field organization crossed a huge threshold and began reaching more than one million voters per day, and by week's end will have contacted more than 5 million voters. Our phone centers are full and our rate of voter contact is significantly out-pacing the Bush campaign in 2004. We have the resources to do the voter contact necessary to support the surge we are seeing in our polling with old fashioned grassroots outreach.

On the Airwaves

    * In the final days of the campaign, our television presence will be bigger and broader than the Obama campaign's presence. The full Republican effort - the RNC's Independent Expenditure and the McCain campaign will out-buy Barack Obama and the Democrats by just about 10 million dollars.

In short: the McCain campaign is surging in the final 72 hours. Our grassroots campaign is vibrant and communicating to voters in a very powerful way. Our television presence is strong. And, we have a secret ingredient - A candidate who will never quit and who will never stop fighting for you and for your families.

In these final hours, Senator McCain and Governor Palin are counting on you - they are counting on you to knock on doors , to make turnout calls , to contact your friends and neighbors . Get our voters to the polls and help John McCain fight for your and for our country. This is our last mission on behalf of John McCain and I have no doubt I can count on your effort and energy to carry us across the line to victory.

Barack addresses the tightening polls

2008-10-30T14:15:40Z

HT: Ta-Nehesi Coates

Humanizing Republicans

2008-10-22T14:31:47Z

Even at this stage of the campaign, I firmly believe that that demonizing the other side is wrong, both morally and politically. Even though there are some racist nutcases in the GOP, most are not. The video below shows some Republicans trying to confront the racist venom in their own party.

While we disagree, we always have to remember the humanity on the other side.

The Coming Landslide

2008-10-03T20:29:41Z

As most of y'all are aware, the polls have been strongly pulling for Obama the last few weeks. However, this is just the beginning of the story. What has been mostly undocumented is Obama's organizational advantage. The best description of this that I have seen has been the On the Road series done by the people at 538.com. They have been making a trip through critical swing states, such as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and now Missouri. I encourage everyone to take a look at this series to see why this year will be different.

The difference between Obama's ground campaign and McCain is astounding. Here is some of their most recent stop, in St. Louis:

We walk into McCain offices to find them closed, empty, one person, two people, sometimes three people making calls. Many times one person is calling while the other small clutch of volunteers are chatting amongst themselves.
...
We stop into offices at all open hours of the day, but generally more in the afternoon and evening. “Call time,” for both campaigns, is all day, but the time when folks over 65 are generally targeted begins in late afternoon and goes til 8 or 9pm. Universally, McCain’s people stop earlier. Even when we show up at 6:15pm, we’re told we just missed the big phone bank, or to come back in 30 minutes. If we show up an hour later, we “just missed it” again.

Contrast this with the Obama field operation.

We’re getting used to this relentless Obama operation: organizers trained in both tactics and campaign culture, working so hard they have trouble remembering what happened 48 hours ago – it’s too distant – and convinced that if they stay in their lane and trust the structure it’ll pay off in the end.

Obama has 40 offices now open in Missouri, and Justin Hamilton, Obama’s Press Secretary for Missouri, told us that while he couldn’t confirm below or above the published reports of 150 organizers (it didn’t come from the campaign), the campaign is only adding to its ground force. Organizers have now recruited 2500 neighborhood team leaders statewide, folks who do the far more effective work than any 30-second ad or yard signs, actual face-to-face contact and persuasion of their neighbors.

In comparison

You could take every McCain volunteer we’ve seen doing actual work in the entire trip, over six states, and it would add up to the same as Obama’s single Thornton, CO office. Or his single Durango, CO office. These ground campaigns bear no relationship to each other.

These efforts do not show up in most polling because most polling firms use old information for voter demographics, and ignore cell phone-only voters. The Selzer polling firm is different. Selzer is the only pollster really trying to capture the changing dynamics, as is explained again at 538.com here.

This is why the election will not be close. I am going to go out on a limb and say not only will Obama win, but he will be closer to 400 EV's than 300.

The Contradiction in Doctrinaire Conservatives' Opposition to the Bailout

2008-09-30T13:25:15Z

Most of the Republicans who opposed the bailout plan were on the economically conservative wing of the party. They said that they don't like the government buying securities, including equity stakes, because that sounds like pure socialism.

One can criticize their preference for theory over reality, but that is the topic of another post.

It occurred to me however, that there is a more basic logical contradiction in their opposition. The problem is this: If they are opposed to governments' purchase of securities, why did they want Social Security to do the exact same thing? The motive was different, but the act was the same. The privatization of Social Security was in reality the government investing in the stock market. How is that different from now?

The Type of Voter Suppression Scheme We can Expect on November 4

2008-09-11T15:12:50Z

Here is an interesting article displaying the GOP voting suppression tactics at their finest:

The chairman of the Republican Party in Macomb County Michigan, a key swing county in a key swing state, is planning to use a list of foreclosed homes to block people from voting in the upcoming election as part of the state GOP’s effort to challenge some voters on Election Day.

We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren’t voting from those addresses,” [said] party chairman James Carabelli.

One expert questioned the legality of the tactic.
“You can’t challenge people without a factual basis for doing so,” said J. Gerald Hebert, a former voting rights litigator for the U.S. Justice Department who now runs the Campaign Legal Center, a Washington D.C.-based public-interest law firm. “I don’t think a foreclosure notice is sufficient basis for a challenge, because people often remain in their homes after foreclosure begins and sometimes are able to negotiate and refinance.”

Where might the GOP get such foreclosure lists?

GOP ties to state’s largest foreclosure law firm

McCain’s regional headquarters are housed in the office building of foreclosure specialists Trott & Trott. The firm’s founder, David A. Trott, has raised between $100,000 and $250,000 for the Republican nominee.

And this is not just an issue in Michigan.

Carabelli is not the only Republican Party official to suggest the targeting of foreclosed voters. In Ohio, Doug Preisse, director of elections in Franklin County (around the city of Columbus) and the chair of the local GOP, told The Columbus Dispatch that he has not ruled out challenging voters before the election due to foreclosure-related address issues.

So the GOP will try their darnedest yet again to slice away just enough of the Democratic vote to give themselves the win. If you're a poll watcher on Election Day, like I am, prepare to fight this tactic tooth and nail

The Type of Voter Suppression Scheme We can Expect on November 4

2008-09-11T15:10:32Z

Here is an interesting article displaying the GOP voting suppression tactics at their finest:

The chairman of the Republican Party in Macomb County Michigan, a key swing county in a key swing state, is planning to use a list of foreclosed homes to block people from voting in the upcoming election as part of the state GOP’s effort to challenge some voters on Election Day.

We will have a list of foreclosed homes and will make sure people aren’t voting from those addresses,” [said] party chairman James Carabelli.

One expert questioned the legality of the tactic.
“You can’t challenge people without a factual basis for doing so,” said J. Gerald Hebert, a former voting rights litigator for the U.S. Justice Department who now runs the Campaign Legal Center, a Washington D.C.-based public-interest law firm. “I don’t think a foreclosure notice is sufficient basis for a challenge, because people often remain in their homes after foreclosure begins and sometimes are able to negotiate and refinance.”

Where might the GOP get such foreclosure lists?

GOP ties to state’s largest foreclosure law firm

McCain’s regional headquarters are housed in the office building of foreclosure specialists Trott & Trott. The firm’s founder, David A. Trott, has raised between $100,000 and $250,000 for the Republican nominee.

And this is not just an issue in Michigan.

Carabelli is not the only Republican Party official to suggest the targeting of foreclosed voters. In Ohio, Doug Preisse, director of elections in Franklin County (around the city of Columbus) and the chair of the local GOP, told The Columbus Dispatch that he has not ruled out challenging voters before the election due to foreclosure-related address issues.

Who really has the guts to stand up to Putin?

2008-09-03T12:40:22Z

McCain, who canceled an appearance on CNN with the genial Larry King because one of his staff members was asked hard questions?

Or Obama, who has the guts to appear on the O'Reilly Factor tomorrow?

Sarah Palin for VP Open thread

2008-08-29T12:55:59Z

There are multiple indications that McCain has chosen Alaska governor Sarah Palin for VP. In anticipation of this announcement, here are my quick pros and cons for the pick.

Pros (for McCain):
Woman
Out of the Box pick, making McCain look maverick-ish
not Romney
not Lieberman

Cons:
Inexperienced
Deep, deep connections with Big Oil
From a state where GOP is mired in corruption scandal

That's all I have in terms of facts right now. I think short short-term she is a good pick; however her connections to Oil will reinforce the theme that a McCain pick is more of the same.

How will Obama help you directly?

2008-08-28T19:24:45Z

You can now find out. Check out ObamaTaxCut.com. You can input your filing status and gross income, and it will tell you how you will do under Obama's tax plans vs. McCain's tax plans. By trying several different numbers, it seems to have to be pretty well off to benefit from McCain (but you already knew that, didn't you?)

Check it out!

The Guide to Negative Campaigning by C.S. Lewis

2008-08-27T12:45:14Z

Here are some quotes from the beginning of The Screwtape Letters by C.S. Lewis:

"The best way to drive out the devil, if he will not yield to texts of Scripture, is to jeer and flout him, for he cannot bear scorn."—Luther

"The devill . . the prowde spirite . . cannot endure to be mocked."—Thomas More

These quotes, taken from a different context, might provide a guide to how Obama should respond to negative attacks. If Obama goes negative and nasty, he risks undermining his own message. On the other hand, undermining the attacks by ridicule might defuse them better. By doing so, he will not appear as nasty as he would otherwise.

Obama already has used ridicule effectively once. In the very important tire pressure debate, Obama had a comment on McCain's flip-flopping, "We just agreed to a series of debates in the fall, but the most interesting one that's going on these days is the debate between John McCain and John McCain."

The material for riducule is there. In response to the gravely serious charge of being called a celebrity, Obama could make fun of McCain appearing in Wedding Crashers. And it does not have to be just for a counterpunch. He can attack first with ridicule. He can go after McCain's numerous flip flops with light humor, instead of dark threats of what a McCain Presidency would mean.

There is an additional benefit by taking this route. It should be apparent that McCain cannot take a joke. He can call reporters "jerks," but if anyone insults him, watch out. Ridicule might make McCain unhinged. We just need one such moment caught on tape to seal the election. Old Crankypants might be fun to the press when he is a bit grouchy, but all the fun is lost when he actually loses his temper.

It is not enough to just go negative. You have to go negative with the right tone. The American people appreciate humor, and they will respond better to it than to talk of impending doom. Leave the talk of impending doom to the Republicans.

Props to Josh

2008-08-17T14:14:37Z

Frank Rich in his New York Times column today gives a favorable mention to TPM and Josh Marshall:

At Talking Points Memo, the essential blog vigilantly pursuing the McCain revelations often ignored elsewhere, Josh Marshall accurately observes that the Republican candidate is “graded on a curve.”

Most Americans still don’t know, as Marshall writes, that on the campaign trail “McCain frequently forgets key elements of policies, gets countries’ names wrong, forgets things he’s said only hours or days before and is frequently just confused.”

(emphasis added)

So kudos to Josh for fighting the good fight.