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Punditry, Science, and Progress


Our reason is failing us in politics.  We constantly rehash stale theories and defend dubious platforms.  We have Republicans spouting Republican nonsense just so they can justify being Republican, with seemingly little thought on what they are really saying.  We have the same thing going on with the Democrats.  This has been the way of things for quite some time now.  To many, that justifies continuing the shouting matches. Because that's just the way "it is".  It doesn't have to be.  If you are a fan of President Obama, you may have heard him mention breaking away from the same old tired arguments.

I'm in the middle of reading The Great Influenza by John Barry, and the book talks considerably about how ancient ideas caused little to no growth in the field of medical science in America until the late 1800's.  This is because physicians were taught to observe passively, then use reason and logic to make sense of what they observed.  Most early medical schools did not require any previous schooling or even any work with actual patients.  You just had to attend a few lectures, test over the content, and you were on your way to a promising career!  It was thought that by  just applying a little logic and reason that ANYONE could be a doctor.  "Bleeding" patients made sense because if someone was flushed, draining some blood made them pale.  Logical, right?

Great strides in medicine did not come until people quit strictly observing and started experimenting.  Physicians started thinking, "Hey, lets cut up a few cadavers and see what is going on inside!  Lets document treatments that work and treatments that don't work, so we don't have to reinvent the wheel every time a patient comes in!"  You would have thought that some of these ideas would have caught on during the first 2000 years of medicine.  The notions were there, but they were not popular.  Because that's just not the way things were done.

I know policy is difficult to experiment with, especially economic policy because of all its odd quirks, not the least of which is consumer confidence.  But could we not be more scientific about what works and doesn't work?  Perhaps throw out a lot of what we "know" out the window, have both sides sit and actually review the same unbiased statistical information, based on what we've done and studying the results and agree that one way provides much more favorable answers?  At least use that as a starting point.  Maybe introduce ideas on a smaller scale to see what we can learn?  And keep observing through the changing of administrations to note long-term results?  Could we see if we can't keep from lying to ourselves when we don't know something, and instead try and get the answer?

I guess the problem here is that what "works" for some doesn't "work" for others .  I guess it would be too much to hope for finding solutions that work for the MAJORITY.  Instead I think we end up with solutions that work for those who come up with ways to fix the solution.  And then they get their fat heads on the 24-hour "news" networks and yell about how their way helps them more.

When I was writing this, I envisioned a large dry erase board in an office at the White House, with things on it such as "Top-down economics-- seemed to increase the wealth of those who were wealthy, while not significantly benefiting those who were not wealthy.  Not a good policy for the majority of Americans."

*sigh*

I guess I should have more interesting fantasies 

23 Comments

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It was thought that by just applying a little logic and reason that ANYONE could be a doctor.

It occurs to me, that this is the same rationale applied to our representatives....

Maybe.

I think that perhaps you are onto something here, toadie.

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of the problem. We elect someone to speak for us, so they say what we tell them to say, regardless of how smart it actually is. We rule not by our brains, but by our numbers. If enough of us call, they will listen. A little scary.

Then again, the reverse could be a little spooky, too.

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bah!

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This hits it --- "The notions were there, but they were not popular. Because that's just not the way things were done."

That's the situation today. Lots of good ideas already exist. More than that, they've been tested. they work. But the proponents aren't in banks or academia, or in politics or the media. They're just DOING them. And nobody's paying much attention.

Yet. One key thing we have to remember, a difference between FDR & Obama, is that FDR came in 4 years after things had crashed. And everybody knew certain things didn't work. so he could pick up a number of experimental approaches which were being tried. Obama is effectively entering office in 1929-30. It's early. So he's going to have to go through that learning curve - fast.

Rec'd.

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Yes, Obama is trying to keep the ship from sinking right now, and he is working his butt off to try and get through to the people and help consumer confidence.

I've noticed that we hate getting too far from our center, politically. We do not want to forget everything and then see where the truth takes us, but we want to spend our time backing institutions that promote themselves rather than promote solutions.

Thanks for reading, quinn.

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Good points Frizzle. This is the first big bill that will be signed in the next week--other good laws have already been enacted and executive orders have issued voiding a few sins of the most criminal executive since Nixon. There are many experiments in 800 billion dollars of legislation.

Somethings gotta work, somethings gotta give.
I think it is bold.

But we shall see as I think Q is pointing out.

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Yes, I hope this new stimulus bill will have some positive results, and I hope we have the patience to really dissect this into what works and what doesn't work without blasting the entire plan or pointing fingers. I can almost see the pundits now. "It's all the spending that caused this bill to fail! It's the Democrats fault!" "No! It's all the tax cuts! Its all the Republicans fault!"

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"It's all the spending that caused this bill to fail! It's the Democrats fault!" "No! It's all the tax cuts! Its all the Republicans fault!"

If I wasn't a jaded old has been warrior, I'd write the above down in a journal and mark it as prophecy. Sure as shootin', it's gonna be said out loud at some point in the future...and we all know it because nothing ever changes. Hmmm. Seems I got a bad case of negativity this morning.

On the other hand, I have not given up the quest to find the pearls among swine. I was reading here: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090211/ap_on_go_co/stimulus_environment and how pleased the environmental folks are with their share of the stimulus. After so many years of bleakness, it must feel like Christmas morning.

It just may be that a couple years down the road when the finger pointing of the elections are in full heat, the tree huggers will come out en masse and point to all the good that was done.

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Thanks for posting that link!

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Excellent thinking here! It reminds me of a something an old friend talked about long ago. That in Europe public policy is made on the basis of science and tested knowledge, whereas here in the States we make policy on the basis of dogma.

It's time to put the dogmas out to pasture!

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It was also in Europe that advances were being made (especially in Germany) in medical science. America was lagging far behind. According to the book, this was all turned around by a small group of people with a vision and a large sum of cash. John Hopkins died in 1873 leaving a trust of 3.5 million to build a hospital and school. The school was modeled after German universities rather than prestigious American colleges. This helped turn America's attitude towards medical science around.

If European public policy is made on the basis of science and tested knowledge, then perhaps there really is hope for us! Especially since we have a president with vision, and a desire to move forward.

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And Johns Hopkins medical school is a research institution. Most of its doctors go on to getting Ph.D.'s and doing research!

Your blog is doing very well here. I'm pleased! :)

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That's a problem in the American government--most of them went into either law or political 'science'. I don't know the numbers now, but I think a few years ago that there was only one member of Congress with a science background in any shape or form.

Yes, everyone who drives and experiments with which route gets you home faster is a sort of scientist, but it's the experimentalist way of thinking that is lacking in our government. I wish that we had more scientists advising our legislators. Heck, even better would be scientists well versed in history, or (is this a term?) 'historical scientists' advising many committees.

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First of all, your account of the evolution of medical technology is nothing short of moronic.

How some Cretin socialist finding himself in a position of power would use your reasoning in the application of economic policy is scary.

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Well, I am always open to learn and change what I believe with some solid information. If you would be interested and letting me hear your account of evolution of medical technology and how it was applied in early America, I would love to hear it.

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Awesome reply. Meeting ignorance with humor and humility is how we will finally kill dogma.

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I am happy to co-sign!

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I think Peter Russell, renowned physicist, quantum physicist, philosopher once said that progress is the consequence of three stages:

1) a new idea is considered absolute heresy.
2) a new idea is met with absolute and collective denial.
3) a new idea is self-evident.

Unfortunately, the whole process can take centuries.

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That's a fact. There is entrenched resistance to new ideas in science as in most things. Often, the winning of a nobel prize in science has more to do with the scientist's longevity than his or her discovery, as they aren't awarded post-humously. rec'd.

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That reeks of Schopenhauer

"All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident."

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Great blog, Frizzle. I have been making this point around here for a while with varying degrees of success. Perhaps it is a little easier for some to take if the advice comes from the left side of the dial?

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Really excellent post, Friz, and I admire the way you handle comments. I notice that the one very critical commenter left the thread after your enlightened response.

I believe Obama shares your thinking, and I have read that he wants policy to be much more evidence-based. I hope so. You raise some fascinating points about how beliefs that are at odds with reality can be very persistent, and I like how you tie the fact-based part of that to policy issues.

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Government is not only lawyers in Congress, it is also thousands of professionals doing the job of researching, writing, and executing laws. Those tend to be skilled in the appropriate area when government is effective. Recently we have heard plenty about even the lawyers being weak on skills, i.e. Ms. Goodling, Mr. Gonzales. Expertise will return, we can hope.

The elected ones will be those who are good at getting elected. We have to work with that.

Because policy can't be done as double-blind sample tests, we use history as a replacement for sample size. Bias is not excludable, so histories compete.

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