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Election Results in NY's 23rd District


 

An off-year election was held yesterday in the 23rd Congressional District of New York to replace an incumbent who had left to accept another position. Because of important ramifications for the political scene nationally in the near future, I would like to summarize the results here for those who may have missed them from other sources and were unaware of the election and its outcome.

The 23rd District, in upstate New York, has been a reliable bastion for only one party since the Civil War (although district boundaries have changed over time). That result was not expected to change, because the incumbent was replaced by a well-liked candidate from the same party. This expectation was upended, however, by a movement launched by activists outraged by what they perceived to be a breach of faith by leaders who in their eyes had betrayed core principles for which they had fought. Seeing the moderate stance of the nominee as a rejection of the basic values they had labored hard to promote, they introduced their own candidate into the race. This conflict between mainstream moderation on one hand and a purer form of political consistency attracted national attention. Many prestigious figures spoke out in support of the purists, denounced the original nominee in incendiary terms, and poured millions of dollars into the campaign against her., As a consequence, she faded in the polls, and as the center of gravity shifted further and further toward the purists, she withdrew, leaving the field to her more radical replacement. The polls predicted a victory for this strategy.

The electorate, however, decided otherwise. Rejecting the attempt to push the party they otherwise favored in the direction of greater ideological purity, they handed a victory to the opposition. A district that had been in the hands of one party for more than a century is now represented by the other side.

Many analysts interpreted these results as a rejection of extremism, and as a self destructive act that threatened to marginalize the importance of a major political party and forfeit its opportunity to influence important national policies. The activists themselves, however, disagree. They believe that although their efforts might cost their party seat after seat, and might appear to drive the country in the direction opposite to their wishes, they should extend this same effort to future and larger contests. In their view, if enough of the centrist elements are routed from the scene, the principles the activists espouse will ultimately prevail.

I believe the above is a complete description of the results of yesterday's election in upstate New York. I've attempted to include all the relevant details. I don't think I've left out any item of importance, but if I've overlooked something, I'll try to supply the missing information.


14 Comments

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It was a close race and I'm undecided who would have won if the 6% that voted for S'fazza had voted for somebody else.

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Given that the district had voted Republican for over 100 years, it seems almost certain that District 23 voters were not rejecting Republicanism in general, but the depradations of the radical right. Some who would have voted for S'fazza took her suggestion and voted for Owens instead. Others couldn't get themselves to do that, but still made clear their displeasure with the Palin, Beck, Limbaugh crowd by refusing to vote for Hoffman. It's hard to imagine that if the right-wingers had not intervened, the district would have failed to remain in Republican hands.

This was not a victory for Democrats, but a stinging defeat for the radical right.

In the two gubernatorial races, both won by Republicans, Virginia voters appeared to suggest a return to conservative roots on the part of those who showed up. In New Jersey, the unpopular Democrat Corzine lost, but exit polls showed that voters approved of President Obama's job performance by a margin of 57 to 42, indicating that the vote was not a referendum on the presidency.

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The silver lining (and I'm trying REALLY hard to find one) is that one of the guy who won the Attorney General slot will have to resign his state senate position, and he is from a Democratic area.

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But I'm talking about the folks that voted for S'fazza...how many didn't know she had dropped out of the race?

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are you implying that Republican voters are uninformed robots who vote a straight party line ticket?

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I think there's a lot of people on both sides of the aisle who just vote along party lines. If they had known she dropped out, my guess is they would have voted for the person with the word "Conservative" next to their name instead of the "Democrat". Just my opinion.

If the facts were reversed and I would imagine Democrats would do the same.

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I gotta agree with MCB here. We don't even need to be mean to the Republicans here (although I suppose we can if we really want to). It's not hard to imagine 5% of Democrats not realizing their candidate had dropped out, either.

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dude it is called absentee ballots, OMG, how on earth do you not know that.

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Some of them definitely could be absentee ballots, although we can't be certain that they were all absentee ballots. Some may have been "protest" votes by people angry that she dropped out.

But either way, my point is still the same. Had those people who voted for her (either thru absentee ballots or in the booth) been told that they had to vote for someone else because she dropped out, it's not clear to me who they would have voted for. It could have changed the result. It's ultimately the fault of the Republicans for putting such a poor choice on the ballot in the first place. But I was just observing that those votes could have swung things the other way.

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PS - not all absentee ballots are counted on or before election day. Each state is different. Here's what happened in another NY district earlier this year.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/03/usnews/whispers/main4917607.shtml

In this case, the absentee ballots weren't tabulated until after Election Day. Do you have some reason to believe that all 6% of the votes for S'faza were all absentee ballots?

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in my mind, this should also be viewed as a reaffirmation of real conservative values, and not the bastardised jacking of them by the radical right.

"conservative activist" is an oxymoron.

the radical right needs to be marginalised; to be cleanly delineated as political thought which is separated from true conservatism.

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There were three wins for the Republicans yesterday, not just two. The result in New York's 23rd Congressional District was good for Republicans. First, we didn't wind up with a New York version of Olympia Snow. Second, although the most ideal outcome would have been a win for the Conservative candidate, his presence threw the race to the Democrat. And why was this a good thing? Because both the Democrat and Scozzafava would have voted for many, if not all, of the items on Obama's legislative agenda. And a Republican voting for them would only give Obama more ammunition for claiming bipartisan support, thereby legitimizing his fraudulent claim that such measures are widely supported by the people.

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When the GOP went down in flames in 1964 with Goldwater perceived as an 'extreme' candidate, he did inspire the radical core of the party, which noticed that of the five or so states he did win, all were in the South.
Thus was born the Southern Strategy, which, combined with an unpopular and costly war conducted cluelessly by an Democratic president, got Nixon in the WH house by the end of the decade.

The Republicans will use a different strategy this time- the point is Republicans tend to draw opposite morals from events such as NY-23 than Democrats. If unemployment is in double digits in 2010 (very possible), and if Obama is still conducting an endless war to prop up the likes of Karzai, expect 2010 to resemble 1966, when the GOP tacked hard right and sent many Democratic reps home.

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The really fun race of the evening. Completely surprised me. Thank you for the details

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Fred Moolten

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