Each week I've been taking data from Andrew Tanenbaum's www.electoral-vote.com and running Monte Carlo simulations of the election. I do two runs, one using a 4% margin of error (common for most state polls), and another using a margin of error taken from a linear regression of state polling results in 2004 compared to the final election results. This week, that value is a 10% margin of error.

This week's results:
4% margin of  error
Obama wins 100.0%, averages 359.2 EV (low 311, median 363, high 393)
McCain wins 0.0%, averages 178.8 EV (low 145, median 175, high 227)
No electoral ties

10.0% margin of error
Obama wins 100.0%, averages 354.6 EV (low 277, median 356, high 442)
McCain wins 0.0%, averages 183.4 EV (low 96, median 182, high 261)
No electoral ties

These results are not materially different from either of the past two weeks.

This week saw nearly 200 new state polls, with 14 in Pennsylvania, 11 in Virginia, 12 in Ohio, 10 in North Carolina, 11 in New Hampshire, and 12 in Florida. There is probably some tightening in Pennsylvania, with the three most recent polls showing Obama leads of 4, 6, and 7 points, while earlier surveys released this week showed Obama leads as high as 14 points. Obama is still clearly ahead here, and McCain needs more movement to make this state competitive.

Florida is still tight, but might be trending more towards Obama: he leads in 11 of the 12 new polls, and is tied in the other (Zogby's only poll of Florida this year), but his largest lead is only 5 points. Ohio looks better for Obama right now, as he led in all 12 polls this week, from 3 to 16(!) points - the 16 point (an Ohio University poll) is pretty clearly an outlier, as no other pollster showed Obama up by more than 9. But McCain hasn't led an Ohio poll since mid-October.

North Carolina is also tight, but still leaning Obama.  He led in 7 of 10 polls by between 2 and 7 points, with two ties, and one McCain lead of 1 point. Virginia and New Hamphsire look more solid for Obama, as he led in all the new polls, at times by double-digits. McCain hasn't led a Virginia poll since early October, and he's not led in New Hampshire since late September (while Obama has been over 50% in each October poll of the Granite State).

Indiana genuinely looks like a toss-up now, with a slight McCain lean. Of 7 new polls, McCain led in 3 (by 3, 6, and 2), Obama led in 2 (by 1 and 2), and two others were tied. Missouri might even be closer, with 2 ties, three with Obama leads, and three with McCain leads. Obama led by at least 4 in all 8 new Colorado polls, and also by 4 or more in all 6 Nevada polls.

Arizona  has seen a flurry of new polling activity, with 8 new polls this week after just 16 earlier in the year. McCain has still led in every poll this year, but his lead has shrunk this week. One was as close as 1 point, and two others were at 2 points, while McCain's biggest leads were 8, 7, and 5. Montana had 4 new polls, 3 showing McCain ahead by 4, and the fourth showing McCain up 3. North Dakota's only poll had McCain up by just 1, while five new Gerogia polls showed McCain leads of between 1 and 6.

The key point is that with the possible exception of Pennsylvania, none of the Kerry states are remotely close. But among Bush states, Obama leads comfortably in Iowa and New Mexico, with Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio looking quite likely to go blue. Even North Carolina and Florida are tilting to Obama, and he could win other traditionally red states like Indiana, Montana, or even McCain's home state of Arizona. Barack Obama is overwhelmingly likely to be elected our next president.