Each week I've been taking polling data from Votemaster Andrew Tanenbaum's www.electtoral-vote.com and running Monte Carlo simulations of the general election. I do two different runs, one using the 4% margin of error that is common to most state polls, and another using a higher margin of error that I derived from a linear regression of state polling data in 2004 compared to the final election results.

This is the first week's results:
4% margin of error:
Obama wins 100.0%, averages 368.8 EV (low 317, median 375, high 396)
McCain wins 0.0%, averages 169.2 EV (low 142, median 163, high 221)
No electoral ties

10.2% margin of error:
Obama wins 100.0%, averages 357.1 EV (low 277, median 358, high 435)
McCain wins 0.0%, averages 180.9 EV (low 103, median 180, high 261)
No electoral ties

Last week, McCain won just one of the 20,000 simulations, but this week Obama won all of them, and he increased his average and median electoral vote totals. Obviously this is the most favorable the state polling has been to Obama all year, and it comes at a good time. Most of the new state polls have been favorable to Obama. Indiana's two new polls gave Obama leads of 5 an 10(!) points, where previously the state had been tied or had McCain leading. It is likely an outlier, but one of two new Georgia polls actually showed Obama ahead by 1, with the other giving McCain a 5 point lead, still a tighter race than we had seen before. Georgia now looks like North Carolina did in August. Speaking of the North Carolina, it had 8 new polls released this week, with McCain leading by 2 in one, another tied, and Obama ahead in the other six with margins ranging from 1-4 points. The Tar Heel state is still quite close, but Obama appears to have the upper hand. Neighboring Virginia looks more likely to vote for Obama, as he leads in all 5 new polls, with two different surveys showing a 10 point lead, but another has the lead at just 1.

Florida is still close, but leaning Obama, with McCain having a 1 point lead in 2 new polls this week, but Obama leading by 1, 5, and 7 in the other three polls.

Obama got strong polling in the midwest. McCain led in 2 of 7 new Ohio polls, by 1 and 2 points, but Obama led the other 5 by wider margins, including the first two polls giving Obama leads of more than 10 points in the Buckeye state. Indiana
Perhaps Pennsylvania is tightening a bit, but Obama's lead in the 5 new polls this week were still all at least 10 points. The two new Indiana polls both have Obama ahead, by 4 and by 10 points.

Montana joined North Dakota as a formerly solid red western state that might turn blue, as two new polls split, with each candidate getting a 4 point lead in one. Even Alaska may be tightening some. While Obama won't win, McCain's lead has shrunk from a high 29 points just after the GOP convention to just 11 points in a new poll this week.

Maine, where McCain was hoping to make a play for one of the congressional districts, now looks solidly Obama, with three new polls giving him leads of at least 15. One of the few relative bits of good news for McCain was in New Hampshire, where Obama's leads in the two new polls are just 4 and 7 points, closer than the double-digit leads seen in early October. Missouri is still tight, with the two new polls differing on the leader, but the Obama lead is 5, while the McCain lead is just 1, suggesting Obama may be slightly favored there, also.

Pennsylvania looks solidly blue, with the closest of 5 new polls showing an 8 point Obama lead. West Virginia looks like it will stay with the GOP, as McCain had leads of between 4 and 9 points in the 4 new polls, and Wyoming looks safe.

Barring some entirely unexpected news to shake up the race, Barack Obama will be elected as our forty third president.