The Big Sort
THE BIG SORT
http://www.thebigsort.com/home.php
Anyone read this book?
Interesting reading the excerpts. The maps reveal just how little of the country is actually considered "swing". You'll find the maps here:
http://www.thebigsort.com/maps.php
He confirms my speculation the the reason some locales are moving Democratic is not changing attitudes but migration of existing Democrats. The takeaway is that most people will continue to vote the party line and there are fewer places that are truly contestable.
Also interesting is his take that Obama won the communities that would have voted Democratic regardless and Clinton won the communities that typically went Republican.
Here's a snip from a conversation with Bill Bishop, author of THE BIG SORT:
Q. Okay, what do you mean by "The Big Sort"?
The quick answer is that most places, most communities in the nation, are growing more politically one-sided — either more solidly Democratic in presidential elections or more reliably Republican. The "red" and "blue" maps of the states are totally misleading. The real differences in American politics today are found at the level of the community. We're increasingly sorting into communities that reliably vote Democratic or Republican in presidential elections.
Q. Isn't the whole lesson of the 2008 election that the country is sick of this "red" and "blue" way of thinking?
It's interesting, however, that when pollsters ask about compromise, most Democrats and Republicans believe their side has given enough — that it's time for the other side to see the error of their ways. We all seem to think it's the other side that's causing the problems. So, yes, there's a lot of talk about the end of partisanship. We just don't see anybody changing neighborhoods.
Q. Are you saying 2008 will be a repeat of 2000 and 2004?
There's no telling, of course. But already you can see The Big Sort at work in the primaries. The maps of Ohio, Texas, Virginia, and Missouri in the Democratic primary are all deeply marked by geographic segmentation. Senator Barack Obama won the traditional Democratic spanholds in the cities. Senator Hillary Clinton won the communities that voted Republican in the last several presidential elections.
Q. Some new states are up for grabs, though, right? The maps are changing.
Sure they are — largely because of the Big Sort. Colorado has been trending Democratic recently — but not all of Colorado. The parts of the state that are magnets for people moving to Colorado from other states are the places where Democrats are gaining ground. The Colorado counties with the least in-migration are actually growing more Republican. It's significant that the county that has sent the most people to Colorado over the last fifteen years or so has been deeply Democratic Los Angeles, California.
Q. And where is this going — in, say, November 2008?
There are a couple of question for the fall campaign. Has there been enough migration to change the statewide totals in states such as Colorado, Nevada, or Virginia? Will those living in the inner suburbs continue to shift toward the Democrat? Will either side be able to recreate the social network campaign Bush devised in '04?
