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Orszag and Zawahiri and Bair, Oh My! (Wednesday Roundup)


Obamanomics: Here's a name you should know: Peter R. Orszag. News broke yesterday that he's been lured away from his current post, running the Congressional Budget Office, to take the reins at the Office of Management and Budget, a cabinet-level post. Director of OMB is one of the most important and least well-known posts in the federal government. But really, why should you care?

Well, I can think of a few reasons. For one thing, Orszag is an economic wunderkind. He's only 40 years old, and get this: he blogs. His elevation also confirms Obama's strategy of ensuring that the senior staffers most directly responsible for managing his relationship with Congress are drawn from the ranks of experienced veterans of Capitol Hill. And he's been sufficiently involved with health care policy that the Institute of Medicine recently elected him to membership. That prompted him to reemphasize that despite the short-term financial turmoil, the nation's long-term fiscal health rests on reforming our health care system in the near future. So he's a guy who's been advising Obama in his current capacity at CBO, and who shares his major budgetary priorities.

But what makes the pick really noteworthy is that he's a prominent advocate of behavioral economics. Barack Obama seems set to usher into power a new generation of economic thinkers who respect the power and importance of markets, but temper that enthusiasm with a keen appreciation for their flaws. Perhaps even more importantly, they seek to address human behavior as it is, not as their models predict it should be. The best summation of Obama's complex economic thinking is undoubtedly the article penned by David Leonhardt this summer; if you haven't yet had the chance to read it, you should rectify that. Until now, however, these bright young economists had been largely confined to advisory roles - folks like Goolsbee and Furman had been expected to find homes in places like the Council of Economic Advisers. Installing Orszag in a vital executive slot says that Obama is serious about putting his ideas into action.


The Enemy of Our Enemies: Well, Al Qaeda has been heard from. In a recording released today, Ayman Al-Zawahiri said, among other things:

You were born to a Muslim father, but you chose to stand in the ranks of the enemies of the Muslims, and pray the prayer of the Jews, although you claim to be Christian, in order to climb the rungs of leadership in America. America has put on a new face, but its heart full of hate, mind drowning in greed, and spirit which spreads evil, murder, repression and despotism continue to be the same as always.

Guy's always good for a giggle, huh? The portion of the statement that's drawn the most attention, however, compared Obama unfavorably to El-Hajj Malik El-Shabazz, drawing upon one of his most famous metaphors to label our new president "a house Negro." 

Now, I don't know about you. But when Al-Zawahiri says something, I'm generally inclined to think the opposite. And one of my readers made this point last week - when our enemies start to spout this sort of racist drivel, it's liable to permanently discredit good-old American racism. Who wants to agree with Al Qaeda? Then there's this added bonus - there's a certain degree of overlap between the most bombastic and belligerent patriots and those who, shall we say, retain the greatest reservations about our new President. One of the nice things about America is that we tend to rally to the defense of our own. A few more statements of this kind could go further toward suppressing racism in this country than eight years of an Obama administration.


Reforming Campaign Finance ReformWord this morning that Republicans are now raising money for Saxby Chambliss in chunks of $65,500; Democrats are raking in donations of up to $38,000. And yes, it's perfectly legal. We saw these joint-fundraising committees during the general election, and they seem set to become a fixture of the political landscape for some time to come. And if you're concerned that this gives outsize influence to a handful of fabulously wealthy donors, well, you're right. And I find that nauseating.

This is a bigger topic than I can treat in a short blog post. But among the most fascinating implications of Obama's revolutionary campaign is that it turned the logic underpinning recent efforts at campaign finance reform on its head. The old view was that the demands of politics posed a double-bind. Set the donation limits too high, and a handful of wealthy donors could warp the process. Set them too low, and candidates would be entirely consumed with fundraising, and challengers might never be able to raise enough money to challenge the power of incumbency (not to mention that they'd be forced to rely on third-party brokers, like business leaders and union officers, to aggregate large enough groups of small donors). The compromise solution was to set the limit at $2,300 - vastly more than all but a fraction of a percent of Americans could generally afford to give, but low enough that hundreds - if not thousands - of donors would participate at an equal level, limiting the influence any one of them might wield. And the limit was set high enough that campaigns could raise most of their funds at relatively few events, putting candidates back out on the trail. Since the limits were passed, we've seen a series of loopholes exploited. Some groups set up 527s and other third-party efforts to influence elections. Ambitious fundraisers bundled donations, receiving credit for hundreds of thousands of dollars. And campaigns established joint committees. But the biggest challenge to the system has come from an unexpected quarter: the internet.

Campaigns which use the internet to raise funds in small-dollar chunks free the candidate to go out on the trail and interact with voters; campaigns that continue to raise funds at big-dollar events tie the candidate down and continue to act as influence auctions. It turns out that most donors who give thousands expect face-time with the candidate or top surrogates; most donors who give hundreds do not. So one easy solution would be to lower the cap on federal donations in a single race from $2,300 to $250. Radically lowering the limit would vastly broaden the pool of donors who can exert equal influence, and since internet fundraising is now the most efficient way to gather these donations, it would also limit the impact of brokers and bundlers. These are complicated questions, and solutions tend to create new sets of problems. Ultimately, we may need to wait for the Supreme Court to recognize that equating speech with money renders the greater part of the public effectively mute. But it's a simple step that could move us in the right direction.

Bailout Madness: I hope to treat this at proper length over the next few days. But I think that the fuss over GM and the auto industry has obscured the really vital economic fight that's been unfolding over the past two weeks. On one side, we have Sheila Bair of the FDIC and Congressional Democrats, led by Barney Frank. And on the other, the Bush Administration and its point-man, Hank Paulson. In a nutshell, Bair and Frank want to redirect a relatively small portion of the $700 billion slush fund toward some sort of reasonably comprehensive foreclosure-prevention program. Bair - who has been the most aggressive and creative federal official during the crisis - wants to renegotiate the terms of some 2.2 million mortgages (although not to reduce their balances), thereby preventing a million and a half foreclosures at the cost of just under $25 billion. Frank was a little less specific, but is aiming in the same general direction. Others would go further: allowing bankruptcy courts to renegotiate loans, taking apart the securitization pools that have impeded the rational functioning of the markets, or reducing principal. 

But Paulson is having none of it. He is adamant that the $700 billion be used only as an investment pool. That's almost amusing. In Paulson's world, pouring hundreds of billions into shaky financial institutions that the government may never recoup is an investment, whereas spending tens of billions to address the root of the crisis, prevent further deterioration, and shore up the financial system is an expenditure. That displays a disturbing degree of literalism. Sometimes the soundest investments a government can make are systemic; building transportation infrastructure is a good example. The returns on highways, ports and railroads, to the nation and to the Treasury, are likely to considerably outstrip a similar investment in the S&P 500. At this writing, there are 61 days, 13 hours, and 37 minutes until the inauguration. We can't afford to wait two months on this one; the drift could be disastrous. 

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18 Comments

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I hope you realize I always love your posts, Fly!

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Surely the Zawahiri screed won't persuade too many of the vast population of "regular" Muslims around the world that Obama is untrustworthy. Last I heard Muslim opinion in general was fairly optimistic.

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No, it won't - not the least because most Muslims have come to feel about Zawahiri roughly the way I do. If you want to frame this in the terms we've all grown so used to employing over the past few months, Zawahiri has taken to shoring up his base, even as he drives moderates further away. And attacking a figure as popular as Obama in these terms is a case in point. (It's also worth noting that the Arab world isn't exactly racially enlightened; a fact that likely contributes to the tone-deafness of Zawahiri's screed.)

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From a psychodynamic point of view, your explanation makes perfect sense. When someone enters in to try and persuade an ambivalent person, they usually tip them in the opposite direction. (unless they're very dependent) It places the ambivalence "between" people rather than just residing within them.

So, if you're torn about which tv to buy - and I say, buy "A" - you're more likely to get into a stance where you and I argue A and B - with you taking the B side.

Just to give this topic a different spin - with the same result.

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Muslims/Arabs were more enthusiastic about Obama early in his campaign but his speech to AIPAC and other remarks intended to reassure Jewish voters have contributed to an attitude of growing skepticism that nothing of substance will change.

Americans may not find it disturbing that the Christian VP calls himself a Zionist, but no one should expect the Arab/Muslim world to greet such a statement with indifference.

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I truly love the sound of the term "Obamanomics" as much as the implications you seem to be gleaning from Orszag's appointment.

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Excellent post. My only reservation is what the effect of lowering the campaign contributions limit to $250 would be. My concern being that as you said, "equating speech with money renders the greater part of the public effectively mute", and lowering the limit would still leave a large portion of the electorate mute while concurrently making fundraising significantly more difficult.

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How about if we limited primary season and campaign season too?

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I'll get behind that! The two proposals in tandem might work.

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Although there will still be an awful lot of Americans for whom donating any amount of money to a political campaign will be virtually impossible.

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"equating speech with money renders the greater part of the public effectively mute"

This is a quote I would LOVE to see in the next majority SC opinion ruling on campaign fianance laws.

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I, frankly, would be delighted if the Supreme Court deigned to quote anything I'd written. But yes, that would be particularly sweet :)

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Well I feel the right dunce! I just posted a blog on Peter Orszag and see only now how Fly has already "been there done that".

FWIW, I am really happy about the choice and I think Orszag is going to do a very good job. For me this is more interesting and thought-provoking than the big marquee picks; it really shows how Obama is bringing together a young, flexible, and highly eclectic pool of talent.

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I'm relieved to learn I'm not the only one geeky enough to be excited about the pick. Frankly, I think it's a bigger signal on health policy than the Daschle announcement. And for those who haven't already, Lux's blog is always worth reading.

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The way a team is coming together around health care is just astounding to me! You can see the care going into this. Putting pieces together before the legislation is even there. I'm in awe!

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This dude is a joke.

If Obama is a house negro, I wonder what he sees Alan Keyes, James T. Harris, and Joe Watkins as?

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Thanks for the OMB update. I'd been wondering when/if behavioral econ was going to start making any headway in the govt.

Speaking of the Bush WH and certain Congressional Republicans having their bailout priorities backwards...Dont' know if you saw any of the Senate Banking Committee interview yesterday of Neil Barofsky, the guy tapped to be the inspector general of the bailout (and who, surprisingly given it's a Bush nomination, seems to be quite competent). Two Republican senators, Bunning and Carper, grilled him about whether $50 million is really necessary for his oversight office. Does he really need that much staff, etc? So $700 billion for Wall St is fine...but $50 million for overight? Time to break out the itemized budget and the calculators and save some money.

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I'd missed that hearing. Thanks for pointing me in that direction. Not surprising, but certainly disappointing. One of the hallmarks of the Bush administration has been the scorn with which it has treated IGs; when it can't appoint its own folks to the posts, it's simply ignored their scathing reports.

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