I decided to look at the demographics of Iran and do my own independent analysis of the election results. This wasn't easy. I have 3 pages of mathmatical calculations as well as many hours researching Iran's demographics.

Some interesting points:

60% of Irans population is under the age of 28 which is the largest demographic base against Ahmadinejad; but you must factor in that 40% of Irans population is under 15 and therfore ineligible to vote.

Women have the right to vote in Iran.

There is still some pockets of Sunni population in Iran that could never be supporters of the ruling Ayatollah.

Tehran has (calculated) about 8 million voters while the rural areas of Iran have approximately 31 million that voted.

Ahmadinejad's greatest support is from the rural areas.

The rural youth are not necessarily Ahmadinejad supporters.

All of this led to some crazy calculations and varying assumptions that seemed reasonable based on age and demographics. Two important points here is that Ahmadinejad only needed 51% of the vote to win and there were multiple candidates competing against him splitting the opposition vote.

Based on my very suspect math; the election results are within any reasonable margin of error for Ahmadinejad to retain his seat. My calculations show the opposition at 51% and Ahmadinejad at 49%; way too close to call.

I believe though that my calculations do show that the 65% number thrown around is a complete scam and indicative of Bush election stealing...Wait, excuse me, Ahmadinejad election stealing.

The mass demonstrations shown on news reports are from Tehran which is a huge stronghold of anti-Ahmadinejad sentiment. My figures estimated a Tehran opposition count of almost 6.5 million of 8 million voters. (My demographics for this figure cover over 9 segments of Tehran society).

Because the rural areas are split or favor Ahmadinejad, I predict a zero chance of the election results being overturned and an extremely low chance that continued demonstrations will affect any change in current Iranian power structures.

Believe me I was working through the numbers hoping for something that would ignite an Iranian pro-western movement but the numbers just aren't there. The rural poor are too great in number and too dependent on goverment officials goodwill to oust a sitting regime. Any significant rebellion would have to originate in Tehran alone and be able to sustain itself there until the rural areas saw the momentum swing and joined in. This is what happened in 1979 under the Shah but the entire country was being terrorized by the Shah's secret police trained by the CIA under the CIA leadership of H.W. Bush.

Today there is no country wide consensus of oppression from the ruling structure.

I believe we are stuck with the Grand Ayatollah for awhile longer.