Posting on what really happened in Orlando at the Florida Democratic Conference.

The most important news to come out of this conference was the unity of the delegates over a single issue. US Senator Bill Nelson found out that his Democratic base of support was united in anger over his failure to support the Public Option on health care.

Twice during the event he was greeted by chants of "Public Option, Public Option..." Perhaps the most impressive show of unity by the delegates and embarrassment by Senator Nelson came at the general session on Saturday morning. As Senator Nelson took the stage to address the delegates, he was greeted by a standing crowd of united delegates chanting "Public Option". The chant prevented Senator Nelson from speaking for almost 5 minutes. Hopefully it was a revelation to the Senator that his own political base was unanimously united against the Senator's failure to support their desire for a robust public option in the Senate Finance Committee.

The Senator then spoke in very ambiguous terms about any commitment he had to correcting his position and instead focused on the procedural aspects of getting the healthcare bill out of the Senate and into reconciliation with the House bill. He promised the delegates that the Senate will have passed their bill by Thanksgiving and that eventually the bill would meet the President's desires on health care reform. He never committed to the public option.

The message to Senator Nelson is that his actions have alienated the very people that have elected him to office. These same people that will be the driving force behind his re-election bid in 2012. This message is also one that his base will not forget his health care position by the 2012 elections when actual campaigning begins just after the 2010 elections.

Senator Nelson has a lot of repair work to do to bring his activist base back into his devoted camp. As the Senator emphasized, President Obama has stated that the success of his Presidency rests on the passage of a robust health care reform bill. The Senator had better get back in line as a bill without a public option could easily be blamed on his failure to support that in his powerful position on the Senate Finance Committee.

When the 2012 election rolls around, Florida will once again be critical for President Obama's re-election. In 2008, it was the massive voter turnout generated by the Democratic activists that turned Florida blue. It would be a shame for the Senator to be at fault in 2012 for a less than motivated base turnout due to his failure on Healthcare Reform.

Palin recently posted the following on her Facebook account; the headline is courtesy of Talking Points Memo. Palin's lies are becoming typical of the wingnut anti-healthcare crowd but this one goes beyond the pale.

Palin: Obama's "Death Panel" Could Kill My Down Syndrome Baby

"The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down Syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama's "death panel" so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their "level of productivity in society," whether they are worthy of health care. Such a system is downright evil."

Her comments reach much farther than just the crazy rhetoric. I have a twin sister that was born with Profound Down's Syndrome; the worst type there is. Since my parents deaths over the last 15 years I have become her sole guardian.

I recently testified for the Federal Department of Justice in a contempt hearing against the State of Tennessee for their treatment of mentally retarded citizens. Yes, it took the Federal Government prosecuting Tennessee (where my sister lives) for the last 17 YEARS to protect the civil rights of the mentally retarded within that State.  This doesn't sound like the Federal Death Committee which Palin has conjured out of thin air. Without the Federal Government fighting for the rights of mentally retarded citizens, many States would have completely ignored the civil rights of these individuals.

Palin's irresponsible statements strike at the fear of every parent or sibling of a severely mentally retarded person; that the State will abandon the services that allow for a decent life for these citizens. I know the frustration of dealing with these issues. I know the fear of responsibility for someone that needs extensive care beyond what a family can provide. To be responsible for such a family member is an overwhelming emotional burden.

Thankfully, the Federal Courts and the Federal Government are there for the protection of everyone's civil rights.

Now we have a new heartbreak to deal with; someone as crazy as Palin making outrageous statements conjuring the threat of death to our loved ones. Could we possibly add more fear and emotional burden onto the loved ones of the mentally retarded?

Palin is exploiting her child for personal and political gain. This goes well beyond the boundaries of acceptable social behavior. Where are the outraged mainstream media at someone that could even contemplate making such mean, hateful, sociopathic comments on a national stage?

Have we become a country where the mainstream media actually rewards people for crazier and crazier behavior just to spice up the mainstream media ratings? Our journalists should be calling out the Palins and Limbaughs of the world for their patent lies and distortions and abhorrent behavior. In most cases, the media mentions the statements without comment or correction of the facts.

To only find solace from Palin's rant from a very few well read and informed people is not very reassuring about our society. Where are the huge numbers of our citizens crying out against her behavior?  Then, of course, we have the wingnut media sites like FOX News that support her behavior and actually perpetuate the lies and distortions of the truth.

Yes, I am feeling offended and emotionally attacked but imagine how my sister would react if she only could do so. What words would she speak to condemn Palin and Limbaugh to the hell that they deserve? Would the town hall meeting crazies say to her face what they are shouting now in anonymity?

 Where then can I find some measure that would impose the suffering onto Sara Palin that she so deserves for her behavior?

Well what a surprise for Floridians on Friday when Senator Mel Martinez resigned. Good ole Mel had already announced that he would not run for re-election in 2010. With Governor Charlie Crist (R-closeted) already running for the 2010 seat and with the ability to appoint Martinez's replacement, many wondered if Crist would be our new interim Senator.

Governor Crist, also late Friday, announced he would not appoint himself and would proceed through a vigorous vetting process for Martinez's replacement and would have an appointment prior to the end of the August recess.

With Crist leading in the polls for taking the actual Senate election in 2010, who would he pick as an interim that wouldn't eventually be a challenger to himself?

Perhaps the Republicans are going to focus longer term and use the interim appointment to polish a candidate to face Senator Bill Nelson (D-moderate) in 2012. Looking back at the 2006 republican primary that determined Senator Nelson's last challenger you will find that the Palinesque Katherine Harris won the primary and then was easily defeated by Senator Nelson.

During that race, the Republican power brokers were not Katherine Harris supporters. She defied the powers to be and ended up as the brokers predicted; a terrible candidate from the fringe. Harris' opponent in the primary William McBride would have been a much stronger challenger to Senator Nelson. Extremely Conservative in the Jeb Bush category but without the wing nut craziness of a Palin or Harris, McBride was only defeated in the primary due to the State's Republican grassroots support for the women that had given Bush the Presidency in 2000.

McBride's political office background is empty. He is a personal injury attorney from Tampa but he garnered 30% of the vote against the wide name recognition of Katherine Harris. His father owns a large Christian radio network and has deep pockets and he has recently been getting Republican power broker support for a run at Florida Attorney General in 2010. The AG office is being vacated by Democrat Alex Sink (D-female Alex) who will be running for Governor in 2010

Appointing McBride as interim Senator is a win-win for the Florida Republican party. McBride would not scare national republican leadership; he could not hope to challenge Crist in the actual Senate race; it gives McBride political office experience he lacks; it gains significant name recognition for McBride for his run at Attorney General in 2010.

In the more distant future, it positions him perfectly to win the 2012 Republican primary to challenge democratic Senator Nelson in that year's general senate election. If McBride takes the Attorney General race in 2010 he will be a real threat to Nelson with the additional experience and name recognition. He will have all of the perfect Florida Conservative demographics to win against a moderate Democrat.

The Power Broker Republicans also trust McBride to follow orders, stay in line, and wait his turn.

The alternative is that Crist is so afraid of building an opponent to his own Senate candidacy that he makes a weak pick for interim Senator. This would be damaging to him at two levels. He would lose the support of larger Republican power brokers and his pick could make him look weak as a leader by only acting in his own self interest.

There are really no other players in the Florida Republican party that make as much sense as McBride. It will be interesting to see if the Republican Party can get it together enough with Crist to make a great play with the Martinez replacement. 

The announcement today that the remains of Captain Scott Speicher have been found at his crash site debunks yet another Bush/Cheney justification for the Iraq war.

Captain Speicher (from Jacksonville FL) was shot down in the first Gulf War in 1991. His crash site and remains were never found despite several covert missions into Iraq in intervening years to attempt to locate him.

Bush and Cheney reported that they had solid intelligence reports that Captain Speicher was alive; held in captivity, and routinely tortured by Saddam. The idea that one of our own had been left on the battle field and was still being held after 12 years inflamed the military. Invading Iraq to free Captain Speicher became a rallying point among the military and many right wing neocons.

Many of us doubted the reliability of the Bush/Cheney intelligence evidence as Senator Bill Nelson (D-Florida) who sits on the Senate Intel committee only asked for a special investigation. Knowing that Senator Nelson was not convinced by the secret evidence was another strike against the Bush/Cheney invasion justifications.

Captain Speicher's wife (although remarried) was put through an emotional nightmare by Bush/Cheney throwing out the idea that her husband was still alive. Thus providing more evidence that neither Bush nor Cheney had any empathy towards any other person; classic sociopathic behavior.

So today, we mark the sad news that a brave pilot serving his country was indeed killed in 1991. His death made even sadder by the immoral use of his name to help justify a war that has killed and maimed hundreds of thousands.

Our thoughts go out to the family of Captain Speicher.

Our apologies also go out to the family for allowing our former President and Vice-President to abuse the name of Captain Speicher for such treasonous purposes.

I'm lost.

I feel as if there are so many committees; so many compromises; so many taking stands against a position; alliances both holy and unholy; that there is no accurate scorecard of where we really are on healthcare reform.

Does anyone (Josh?) have a breakdown of the current proposals from the various committees with their similarities and their differences broken down? Where is the Senate in relation to the House?

I have no idea what to even tell my Senator (D-decent) or Representative (R-worthless).

Could TPM staffers do this for us: A simple chart laying out the plans from committees and Chambers and the member coalitions pushing hard lines one way or the other? Post a special page with summaries of the latest greatest screwy ideas coming from fantasy land?

Just show me lost in the wilderness; seeing only trees.

P.S. If you are as lost as I am, please ask Josh to help us out.

Does anybody else remember the good old days when TPM ran full time? The weekends were full of Josh and others careful insights and fact analysis from the week? When weekend phone calls were made? When organizing readers to research or blitz the politicians was standard?

I really miss the old TPM; so much so that I wonder how much longer my weekday attention to TPM will be affected by it's new model of corporate journalism. It's sad really to see such a great enterprise devolve into just another blog living off of its past glory.

One last time I say, great job Josh, along with the thousands of TPM'ers that pursued the AG scandal.

Are you happy now? You have received one more kudo. Now get back to work bringing TPM back into the leading blog it should be. News and blogs run 24 hours and they need nurturing to make that happen. Have your people take some laptops home so they can comment, report and blog when events are moving or the readers are moving a story forward past the 7pm news hour quitting time.

Who else is tired of seeing the "Yesterday in 100 seconds" piled on top of one another with little or no current entries between them?

I'm not complaining here just to complain. I want to see TPM succeed and break new ground in online journalism; I'm just afraid it is slipping into the corporate news model instead of what we all hope it can become.

Rumors abound on the intertubes that the Palin house was built with funds and or kickbacks from Federal Funds for the Wasilla sports complex. Palin's claim to fame as Wasilla Mayor was getting the funds for the complex. Rumors say that it seems that supplies and contractors from the sports complex also helped build the over 3000 square foot Palin home. 

Again, unconfirmed rumors are that Federal Indictments will be announced next week.

Aren't rumors fun. I can't wait to find out the truth (Hello, TPM Hill reporters??).

I decided to look at the demographics of Iran and do my own independent analysis of the election results. This wasn't easy. I have 3 pages of mathmatical calculations as well as many hours researching Iran's demographics.

Some interesting points:

60% of Irans population is under the age of 28 which is the largest demographic base against Ahmadinejad; but you must factor in that 40% of Irans population is under 15 and therfore ineligible to vote.

Women have the right to vote in Iran.

There is still some pockets of Sunni population in Iran that could never be supporters of the ruling Ayatollah.

Tehran has (calculated) about 8 million voters while the rural areas of Iran have approximately 31 million that voted.

Ahmadinejad's greatest support is from the rural areas.

The rural youth are not necessarily Ahmadinejad supporters.

All of this led to some crazy calculations and varying assumptions that seemed reasonable based on age and demographics. Two important points here is that Ahmadinejad only needed 51% of the vote to win and there were multiple candidates competing against him splitting the opposition vote.

Based on my very suspect math; the election results are within any reasonable margin of error for Ahmadinejad to retain his seat. My calculations show the opposition at 51% and Ahmadinejad at 49%; way too close to call.

I believe though that my calculations do show that the 65% number thrown around is a complete scam and indicative of Bush election stealing...Wait, excuse me, Ahmadinejad election stealing.

The mass demonstrations shown on news reports are from Tehran which is a huge stronghold of anti-Ahmadinejad sentiment. My figures estimated a Tehran opposition count of almost 6.5 million of 8 million voters. (My demographics for this figure cover over 9 segments of Tehran society).

Because the rural areas are split or favor Ahmadinejad, I predict a zero chance of the election results being overturned and an extremely low chance that continued demonstrations will affect any change in current Iranian power structures.

Believe me I was working through the numbers hoping for something that would ignite an Iranian pro-western movement but the numbers just aren't there. The rural poor are too great in number and too dependent on goverment officials goodwill to oust a sitting regime. Any significant rebellion would have to originate in Tehran alone and be able to sustain itself there until the rural areas saw the momentum swing and joined in. This is what happened in 1979 under the Shah but the entire country was being terrorized by the Shah's secret police trained by the CIA under the CIA leadership of H.W. Bush.

Today there is no country wide consensus of oppression from the ruling structure.

I believe we are stuck with the Grand Ayatollah for awhile longer.

It was Woodstock; peace, love, celebration. There was just one HUGE difference; it wasn't a just a bunch of white teenagers.

There was every color of skin and thousands of different languages. It was peaceful and polite and a celebration of a new America.

I asked a lot of questions of people I met. There seemed to be a few common themes.

A belief that America was finally living up to its promise of Democracy and following the vision of Dr King that we will now begin to judge individuals by the content of their character. A celebration that Bush will be gone and the crimes and abuses of his administration are finally over. A belief that the Wall Street rich are thieves stealing from the American people; that global economy and global corporations are not serving the people of the world.

There was fear of the crashing of our economy and a potential break in the social contract provided by Social Security. There was fear that the Middle East will continue to require more blood and treasure and that the Israelis have gone too far in Lebanon and Gaza with the massacre of innocents. There was hope that we would soon leave Iraq and there was fear that once we left a bloodbath would ensue as a result of our actions there.

Mostly though, there was a feeling of hope that for once, the policies of our government would focus on the general welfare and common good for our citizens.

Tomorrow will be a different kind of day; pure celebration.

The big day will really be Wednesday. The first day of the Obama presidency and what changes will be executed. The people are expecting dramatic action from day one. Let us hope that Obama has a ream of Executive Orders to overturn and a pile of signing statements that will be stricken from the record.

It will be interesting to hear tomorrow's post parade comments and attitudes.

Tomorrow (actually today since it is so late), I will be a poll watcher at one of our local precincts along with two other Democrats and an officially designated Democratic attorney. In Florida, each campaign (local and national) and party can each designate a poll watcher for each precinct.

In the past years, we have never had enough people to just cover each precinct with even one watcher throughout the county.

This year each precinct has at least three poll watchers and a designated attorney as well as attorneys at large. The Election officials know this because they have to certify the Poll Watchers and Attorneys.

I can assure you that the polls in Florida will be covered. Can the electronic machines still be a problem? Yes; but many if not most Florida counties have switched to an optical scan ballot insuring there are records available for recounts.

As poll watchers we will be entitled to watch the opening certifications of all the voting machines and at close of voting; we will follow the closing procedures as well as personally observe the transfer of ballots to the counting room at the elections office. There will be bi-partison participation for official observers in the elections office counting areas.

The party has trained each poll watcher and we know what to look for both inside and outside the polling locations. The attorneys are ready to immediately confront elections officials and if necessary file immediate orders with local judges.

Florida will be covered thanks to the organization of the Obama campaign. We will put out sparks before they can become fires. We are ready for this election like no other in my memory.

For those of you worried about Florida, be assured that we are watching and will be doing everything that can be done to assure an open and fair election.

Our local Supervisor of Elections is an elected Republican. She is an outstanding person and completely open about insuring fair elections. She has gone out of her way to insure that all registrations problems were resolved and has been open with both parties to solicit help in resolving individual registration issues.

There may be problems in other areas of Florida but we have the people needed right on the scene to keep things straight.

Other than long lines, I don't foresee any issues. We will also be watching for unfair allocations of machines that may be contributing to lines and have the attorneys primed to fix those situations.

Florida crosses two time zones. Polling closes at 7pm eastern so the western part of the panhandle in the central time zone will not close until 8pm eastern. Anyone in line at closing time gets to vote. Poll watchers have been alerted to the correct procedures for ensuring that everyone in line gets to vote.

The Obama campaign has Florida ready.

I will be working the poll tomorrow(today- 1:30am) and I hope many of you other TPM'ers will be out there as well. GOTV

Homerun!!

What do you think?

Early voting in Florida begins Monday, October 20th.  With Obama's lead I don't see how McCain can catch up in such a short time. The Democratic "get out the vote " effort has been organized by the Obama campaign to a level I have never seen before in Florida.

The JOBS speech was timed perfectly. Once again McCain will be the follower and not the leader when he releases his plan. I feel confident that McCain will miss the mark once again by emphasizing cutting spending and supporting Wall Street. I think everyone is much more concerned about Main Street. Obama's plan will appeal to many of the Republican small business owners and remaining undecideds.

I don't see how McCain can recover ground fast enough to get Obama.

I think it's time we started showing Florida "Blue".