avatar

flavius

User profile »

Yes, but we can't afford it.

Here's a link.
http://delong.typepad.com/


It takes you to Brad Delong and then move down to the DRAFT.

Sort of on the back of a post card Delong takes us through what we're spending money on now  and what we'd have to do to cease being stupid..

You don't have to agree with Delong to see that it's not
impossible-yet-for this country to recover from the hole which the Republicans have dug and to do it without abandoning any hope of living as well as the average Luxembourgher.

But this may be the last chance.  

Suskind's book

which I read last week  is convincing if not necessarily well written, a tangential subject which I won't discuss here.

Apart from the outrageous Habbush/phony document story which is being covered under

CIA:Book's Iraq Forgery Charges are "Offensive"

there's another interesting anecdote re Curveball.As is now well known, much of the information the Administration used  in what Andrew Card referred to as the marketing campaign for the War, was derived  from this questionable source. And we've been told that the CIA had wished to question him at the time  but access was denied by the German Government for whom he was spying.

But the reaon the German Government denied the CIA access was , writes Suskind, that Joe Wippl ,the CIA's station chief in Germany,  advised them not to do what his bosses were asking them to do , to let  Washington question Curveball.

Subsequently CIA attempted to dismiss Wippl and a funny thing happened. Cheney's office recommended that instead Wippl be given the job of CIA liason to Congress- a job for which he was unqualified. After some time he was removed from the job and when finally removed was given a sinecure running a one man intelligence "institute"
at Boston University. 


Our Russian Policy (oops) knee jerk reaction

is and has been dangerously wrong.

Brad Delong as usual isn't wrong and today takes a quick tour of a covey of columnists , bearing an uncanny resemblence to the fabled blind men trying to decide what to make of the strange animal each of them is individually touching: the tusks, the trunk,
those ears etc.

Here's the link

http://delong.typepad.com/

One more time, no Hillary as VP.,no Obama as Pres

Chuck Todd, speaking on Hard Ball said that in the most recent NBC/WSJ poll only 80% of former Hillary supporters say they will vote for  Obama. Of that 20% , a cohort of  11% are not undecided but  will defininitely not vote for Obama and a large number of those intend to
vote for McCain.

In which case, he'll win.

Only Hillary as VP candidate  can get that 11%( I suppose that's a couple of million) to vote for Obama.
Without that two million,he loses. even if they don't pull the lever for McCain , which many say they'll do.

It really doesn't matter what bad things HRC , or Bill or her supporters have done. HRC  must be the VEEP candidate
or Obama will be attending the swearing in in January.......as a guest.  

We have no foreign policy


If we seek to understand American foreign policy in terms of a rational engagement with international problems, or even as an effective means of projecting power, we are looking in the wrong place. ........................................ The US does not really have a foreign policy. It has a series of domestic policies which it projects beyond its borders.



Helping the nut with a nuke

Let us  assume that a  crucial, perhaps the crucial , goal of our  foreign policy  is reducing the probability of a terrorist obtaining a nuclear weapon. That the nut with a nuke is a more immediate danger than ,say, Iran's putative nuclear program.

And absent a convincing refutation let's accept Ron Suskind's thesis  in The Way Of The World that now and for some long time into the future the  most likely way that danger could materialize  is  by a terrorist obtaining the where-with- all from a poorly guarded  Russian site.. Probably not an an existing  nuclear device, more likely  material ready to be quickly converted into a device. Not yellow cake requiring years of processing

And assume that should that happen , it will be impossible, not difficult, impossible for us to prevent its use here: Haitian refugees regularly sail pitiful  boats into Miami harbor;locals  regularly walk ,unchecked,  across the Canadian border at any of the towns that straddle it..(Our "protection" against that in Vermont  is the never- relocated  check point on I-91.Which might well deter a terrorist in such a hurry he's unwillling  to drive on one of  the parallel town or state roads).

On these assumptions how should we conduct our relationship with Russia? Place Star War sites in Poland?
Allow Shaakashvili to think we'll support his invading Ossetia? Rather than letting  Putin know  through our respective state departments that if he doesn't withdraw he'll  be very , very sorry., instead have Condi tell the Tiblisi  press corps all the bad things we intend to do to Russia if it doesn't comply with our instructions ?

Just asking
.  



"The Geogrians came in and killed everyone"


 according to Leyla Bessateva in todays FT which consistently portrays a grimmer picture of the conflict there than does the Times.


Today ,under the headline Refugees tell a different story of six-day conflict 
.


Catherine Belton wrote "


The Ossetians who have fled north to the Alagir camp tell a very different story to those who view of the events of last week as Georgia’s plucky struggle.

……


Bessateva- an Ossetian refuge- for example  continued
 



“They burned all the houses  and they even set fire to the school and the hospital”


 

Well, who started it?

Josh asks whether it should be our policy to restrict Russia's sphere of influence.

But whether it is or isn't, this incident was a failure of US policy.
 
It was , after all, Georgia which took the first step.
 
The US media and at least the neo cons characterize the Russian action  as an example of its policy of  expanding it sphere of influence.And in particular of discouraging democracy among its neighbors..

Perhaps.
 
But in plain words  who did what to whom? Georgian troops crossed into Ossettia, bombed some buildings, killed some Ossettians (if that's how they are described) and -the Russian claim-some of the Russian  "peace keepers". Any dispute about that ? 

Robert Kagan for example sees this as a turning point in history , like Munich in 38. Unless we do something dramatic he expects Russia to continue invading or at least intimidating its democratic  neighbors.

Like Prague in 68 ,he thinks, altho in this case he approves of sending tanks over the border . At least the first set of tanks.. 

Well yes. Putin has certainly intimidated any of its neighbors -democratic or not- who decide to violate a truce and invade a majority ethnic Russian locality creating substantial casualties.

.One way those neighbors can avoid Russian intimidation is to ensure that if they  enter into a truce with an ethnic Russian population, they keep it, and don't send in their tanks..That doesn't actually seem like a terrible restriction on their sovereignty.

If it's our policy  to restrict Russia's sphere , then the corresponding tactic was  to avoid giving a pretext to expand it. We failed..Who was our representative to Shali? April Glaspie?

If it's not then we've singularly failed to make that clear  with such an "unbalanced" ( as John Bolton might say ) condemnation of only one of the two erring parties as to suggest that's our hidden agenda.

Let's face if guys. We knew Shali intended this. We hoped he'd sneak this fast ball past Putin.Now we're involved in operation CYA: pious declarations about humanitarian assistance and port calls from our Black Sea fleet.



 

A graph is worth a thousand TPM comments

TPM's book club has a worthy dissection of Galbreath's book on the predator state. Meanwhile Brad deLong has a killer graph which I'm probably not allowed to
post here.. The numbers aren't as colorfull but here's what they were

Cumulative Percent Growth
1946 -1976
Per Capital National Income  was up            90%
Ave Income Bottom 90% of Households up 83%
Ave Income top 1% of Households up         20%

1976-2006
Per Cap NI  up                                             64%
Ave Inc Bottom 90%  up                              10%
Ave Inc top 1%  up                                     232%

 

On the boat with Kerry

Waiting in line yesterday for the first boat to the Cape I looked back and about half way back in the line was Senator Kerry , having paid his 37 bucks like the rest of us. Not on a private jet or even a  Cessna..

I wondered idly whether I should say in passing that I respected his service to the country :in Vietnam , as a Vietnam protestor, and as a Presidential candidate who should have , but didn't , win.. Instead I decided to respect his privacy-as did the rest of the passengers-altho in my case that was somewhat irrelevant since he  sat down six feet awat from me. The only intrusion on his privacy was one he welcomed when the couple next to him asked whether they could photograph  him with their kids to which he said "of course"  and 4 lively pre teens squeezed in  on the banquette for that purpose.

I'd been discouraged ,but unsurprised , by  the morning  news report that Obama had dropped 22 points in the most recent poll of Massachusetts voters and now trails McCain among white male voters. 

What else is new.
 
I've long learned that Joe Lunchpail is not liberal and merely waits for the commentariat to provide some rationale he can use to justify his scorn for any one who is: flip flopper, he calls me bitter, too much like Paris Hilton, you name it.
 
And is reinforced in this by the MSM.,as in  the Kerry wind-surfing incident uniformly and incorrectly reported as evidence of his participation in an elitist recreation altho the other ten guys on the harbor that day were plumbers, masons , painters etc. who'd blocked the dirt  road with their pick ups,the actual elites  having brunch in their McMansions with the back entrance door mat featuring a photo of Hillary above the words  "A vast right wing conspiracy" on which the delivery men were required to wipe their feet before entering.

And not only the MSM.. In 2000 Nicholas Lehmann wrote a fulsome profile of W for the New Yorker which,AGAIN,  two issues ago proved its independence with a meretricious Ryan Lizza profile of Obama which ,interalia, described him challenging fraudulent signatures on an opponent's petition (should he not challenge fraudulent signatures?) described such vetting as having been learned from the Daley machine(do only machine politicians challenge fraudulent signatures?), and then in a breath taking example of  illogic  subsequently referred in passing to the fact that he Obama won his first campaign by " employing machine tactics". So add David Remnick's name to those for whom it's 'any stick to beat a dog.'

Provided the dog is liberal.

Sadly , we are once again convincing ourselves that Obama will be elected on the strength of his sensible policies and decent campaign tactics. Fuggedaboutitt. The exact opposite is the case. That's what will defeat him Combined of course with the powerful covert racism of low income whites. And not only low income whites. Michelle Obama's freshman room mate at Princeton described her mother as having been appaled to find her daughter forced to room with a black.

Meanwhile we'll maunder on here about Obama not deserving our vote because of FISA. Or Hillary not being acceptable to us were she his VP candidate. Whatever he has done in the past , and whatever he does during the campaign the only sensible position for us to take is to support the guy on the off chance he might overcome the prohibitive odds against this country choosing any liberal.

Piling on poor John

"The US presidential election has taken a nasty turn and the fault is all on one side.

John McCain .....has....launched ..advertisements that....misrepresent... to an extreme degree.

....McCain's new strategy is .debased

...prevailing tone ...is contempt....they outragously misrepresent

...watch McCain ....descend to gutter politics

...he would rather lose his reputation than lose an election."

end of quotes

Have they no shame the Daily K.....Oops, not the DK. Firedoglake? Digby ? 

Three attaboys for the first contestant to name the author of this scurility. (For which,see the first comment). Hint , it's pink.

On, and for good measure

"It is worth remembering where the blame for this ( this= Only luck can save America's economy) lies:squarely with the Bush Administration. 

Another Day , another slipping Obama poll result

Today Gallup Tracking shows a tie. Yesterday Rasmussen tracking showed Obama with a 1% edge.

If polls overstate voters' intentions with respect to Obama because those polled are reluctant to be considered  racists, Obama may be in serious trouble.

The VP proposals:Kaine, Bayh, Biden-but no Clinton- should be viewed in the light of that trend. . Not only would she nail down most of those 17 million primary supporters but she would also bring with her the Independents or liberal Republicans- particularly women-who were unable to vote because of their party affiliation.

If we here are contributing in any way to Obama's decision to side track Hillary we should think long and hard about what we're doing.

The issue is not how the two of them can work together,
or what we think of her Iraq vote, it's how do we get the guy elected. 

The case for Hillary as VP

The case for HRC as Obama’s VP is based on 3 propositions. Obama needs help, she can provide it, and  provide it better than the other potential candidates.

 

Hillary for VP-please

Two items in today's news:

July 29 NYTimes

oChance of an Obama -Clinton Ticket is Seen as Increasinly Unlikely

oUSA Today/Gallup poll of likely voters  7/25- 7/27:  Obama 45% ;McCain 49%.  compared to same poll for 6/15-6/19: Obama 50%;McCain 44%

I voted for Obama in the primaries and disapproved of many  of HRC's campaign tactics. But if Obama does not
choose her for VP he's still going to be paired with her as the two of them watch next January's inauguration  along with the other  senators.

It simply doesn't matter what we think of Hillary. If she isn't on the ticket Obama won't win. He can not afford to combine with the net electoral disadvantage of being black the swing to McCain (or to staying home) of a significant number of disappointed  Hillary's supporters.

We've been reading their sour comments here for two months but we "ain't seen nothing yet". Wait till Obama announces that his VP is to be Evan Bayh or Tim Kaine.
Not only will the polls show McCain ahead from then on ,but they'll understate his margin.

And don't be too sure about those expected majorities in congressional races.

If you're hoping to see Justice Stephens replaced by another Scalia or Thomas just keep agitating to keep
HRC off the ticket.  It's Hillary for VP or McCain for President.

IGNORE THIS IS A FORMATTING TEST


IGNORE IGNORE THIS IS A TEST OF A MISMATCH IN FORMATTING


They are not long the weeping and the laughter


Love and desire and hate


I think they have no portion after


We pass the gate


 

More Entries »

Inside Cafe



Cafe Features


August 18-22

Book Cover

September 1-4

Book Cover

September 8-12

Book Cover

September 15-20

Book Cover

October 6-12

Book Cover





Book Club Archive



Masthead

Editor-in-Chief
Josh Marshall

Site Editor
Lila Shapiro

Intern
Al Shaw



Subscribe to TPMCafe's feed.
Subscribe to TPMCafe's reader blog feed.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address