For it isn't enough to talk about peace. One must believe it. And it isn't enough to believe in it. One must work at it.
-Eleanor Roosevelt
The
inauguration of a new president in January 2009 will provide a singular
moment in international relations, a point in time where it is more
likely than ever that thoughtful, fair and direct diplomacy can have a
dramatic and positive impact throughout the Middle East. Currently,
most of the debate in the presidential election surrounds diplomacy
with Iran and withdrawing from Iraq. While these issues should be top
priority, for progress in either area a larger context must inform
policy makers' perspective and a plan must be put in place for the
future.
Below I give the central themes of what I think a successful Middle East Peace Plan for the 21st Century would look like.
Goals:
For
any plan to be legitimate, it must have clear goals to provide an
impartial measurement of success and failure. These goals must provide
a basis for moving forward with specific actions. The goals for a 21st
Century Middle East Peace Plan are simple:
Short Term Goal: Political stability throughout the Middle East
Medium Term Goals:
Diminished Iranian Influence, Increased Egyptian Influence, Diminished
Tensions in Israeli/Palestinian Conflict, Political Development in
Lebanon, Decreased International Dependence on Middle Eastern Oil,
Development of Good Governance Throughout the Region
Long Term Goal: Democratization
The
short term goal of political stability throughout the region is
important because it is also the fundamental goal of every government
in the region, ally and enemy. While it will require working with and
sometimes supporting governments and political figures who are anathema
to many of our political and moral values, it is a necessary first step
towards successful diplomacy. If a government feels threatened by
instability within or instability in surrounding nations, it will be
much less likely to be willing or able to trust, be honest and take
educated risks, which are all vitally important for successful
diplomacy.
The medium term goals are more specific and center
around targeted areas where progress is both possible and a logical
progression from the development of increased political stability. Each
one independently furthers peaceful prospects in the region; while as a
group they represent dramatic positive change.
The long term
goal is perhaps the most controversial. Not only is it counter to the
desires of numerous governments throughout the region, it could also be
seen as a diplomatic extension of neo-con foreign policy. It is not. It
is, and has always been, the most effective and constant foreign policy
of the United States, to further democracy when possible throughout the
world. This goal is furthered by finding the specific instances
throughout the plan when political and diplomatic leverage can be used
to further openness, good governance and democratic systems within
every government of the Middle East. It need never be forced.
Timeline
Initial Actions: Actions taken or begun within the first year of the next presidency.
1)Begin
Direct negotiations between the US, Syria, Lebanon and Israel with the
short term goal of settling the issue of the Golan Heights and ending
Syrian political interference in Lebanon, and the long term goal of
normalized relations between Syria and Israel, as well as Lebanon and
Israel. While this would require tough choices by all involved, it is a
very real possibility that a deal could be struck where Israel agrees
to give up the Golan Heights and Syria agrees to stop funding Hezbollah
in Lebanon, while allowing a strong UN peacekeeping force to guarantee
the security necessary for Lebanese political development.
While
Israel giving up the Golan Heights would be a dramatic concession of a
strategic asset, 21st century warfare no longer makes the Golan Heights
the prize it was throughout the last half of the 20th century. Of much
greater value to Israel would be taking away from Hezbollah their base
in Lebanon. While the Syrians have shown little reason to be trusted, a
UN force with a mandate to protect the political leadership of Lebanon,
patrol the Lebanon/Israel border, and train the Lebanese army would
provide essential tools for the always burgeoning but constantly
undermined Lebanese government to take hold.
The dispute over the Shebaa Farms will have to be decided as well.
2)Dramatically
increase engagement with Egypt as a political and diplomatic leader in
the Middle East. To not see the potential for Egyptian leadership in
the Middle East is simply to never have learned the history of Gamal
Abdel Nasser. Egypt's current independence from much of the Middle East
is a consequence of their 1979 peace treaty with Israel and the fact
that Egyptian political leadership has found it easier and safer to
stay out of Middle Eastern politics whenever possible. While Egypt's
peace treaty with Israel was dramatic in 1979, for much of the region,
normalization has become a de facto reality, even if not expressed in
public by political leadership. This barrier to Egyptian influence has
been greatly diminished.
Which means what is stopping the
Egyptians from once again becoming prominent actors on the Middle
Eastern stage is the fact that it's dangerous and they see little
benefits to them. Yet America is able to provide numerous benefits to
Egypt, not to mention the billions of dollars we currently give them in
aid. A great deal of leverage can be obtained with Egypt through trade
negotiations that would be helpful to numerous growing Egyptian
business interests.
In the short run, Egyptian leadership
could be a partner in Lebanese and perhaps Palestinian political
development. In the long run, Egypt would provide a much safer counter
weight to Iran than Saudi Arabia and Iraq currently do. This is not to
say that Egypt is necessarily an example to the world of good
governance, tolerance and respect for human rights; it is not. Yet
Egyptian government and especially culture are more educated, in parts
progressive and forward looking than any other area of the Middle East.
3)Push Turkey to legislate and enforce the
laws necessary to qualify for EU membership, while at the same time
convincing EU allies of the benefits and necessity of ratification.
Specifically, Turkey needs to guarantee the civil and political rights
of all secular and religious groups, as well as individuals of Kurdish
ancestry. This would represent a dramatic, but not unpopular or
impossible, step forward in Turkish political development, while
simultaneously showing their good faith in pursuing EU membership. It
would also diminish one source of instability in Iraq, the conflict
between the Kurdish north and Turkey.
4)Establish
an elite Middle East Peace Corps. Currently, the Middle East is likely
the most dangerous region in the world to work, which has led to a
brain drain the likes of which perhaps only the nations of sub-Saharan
Africa truly understand. In order to balance against this emigration,
it is necessary to provide strong incentives for people, humanitarian
groups and good government experts to flock to the areas most in need.
Through
a Middle East Peace Corps, the United States could train people in the
specific tasks necessary for targeted projects of humanitarian aid,
infrastructure development, political development, good governance
workshops at all levels of government, and education. While safety
would be a top priority, these will be dangerous jobs that require
substantial compensation. Even still, a call of service to further US
foreign policy goals through humanitarian efforts is one that many
Americans will answer, and which would in the long run help reestablish
US standing throughout the world.
5)Negotiate
and Enact a strong and ambitious treaty on climate change. In the long
run, America and our allies will never truly have any real leverage in
the Middle East unless we begin to end the world's dependence on Middle
East nations as a source of oil. While this goal will likely not be
achieved for generations, a climate change treaty with dramatic
emissions reductions and penalties for missing periodic target emission
levels will send a strong signal to the nations that depend on oil for
power that their future does and will depend on them acting in good
faith with their neighbors and the community of nations.
Future Actions: Actions taken within the last three years of the next president's first term.
1)Begin
direct negotiations with the Iranians over a broad range of issues,
including the development of nuclear power and weapons, interference in
Iraq, funding of Hamas and Hezbollah, and belligerency towards Israel.
Negotiations with Iran can only be successful if a number of necessary
steps are taken to begin to diminish Iranian influence in Syria,
Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and Iraq.
Yet Iran is
not a natural leader of the Arab nations in the Middle East, nor has it
ever been. The current Iranian rise in influence can be derived almost
directly from their defiance of the United States since the revolution
in 1979. By working towards all of the initial actions in this plan,
this defiance of the US will begin to diminish in key areas of Iranian
influence, including Syria, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories.
With Egypt as a once again emerging player in Middle Eastern politics,
Arab nations and people will begin to have a choice of strong
leadership in defiance of the radical tendencies of Iran and Saudi
Arabia.
A more isolated Iran will likely be more dangerous in
the short term, as it has long worked to emerge as a regional
superpower. Yet, if incentives, support and guarantees of political
stability can be used as the proverbial carrot of diplomacy, it is very
possible that Iran can be, at minimum, stopped from engaging in any
overt acts of aggression throughout the next four years, and, in the
best case, begin on a track towards normalizing their relations with
the world.
Any plan for peace in the Middle East will surely
have diplomacy with Iran as the linchpin, upon which success will
ultimately be decided.
2)Withdraw the vast
majority of US troops from Iraq. There are not words enough to describe
the danger, difficulty and absolute necessity of withdrawing US Troops
from Iraq. In short, Iraq diminishes our military readiness, costs
billions of dollars needed at home and in other areas of the region, is
a source of resentment for millions of people throughout the Middle
East and constant propaganda for our worst enemies.
Iraq is
not a stable nation at this point, but has reached a level of security
not seen in many years. This provides the best opportunity of the past
five years to begin phased withdrawal, likely over a two year period.
The goals of this withdrawal policy should be to get the most US troops
out as fast as possible, while guaranteeing the security of the Iraqi
government, reacting to terrorist threats and attacks, and, most
importantly, ensuring as best possible that our withdrawal is not seen
in Iraq and throughout the region as abandonment that equals our
initial invasion in hubris and devastation.
Second Term Actions
1)Convene
a regional peace conference with the goal of normalized political and
trade relations between all Middle Eastern nations, most importantly
Israel. In the long run, this is likely the toughest challenge in
Middle Eastern diplomacy, as well as the most important to maintain as
a goal. To some day strike this deal would be a coup for peace and
progress throughout the world. While it is only one of many sources of
instability, anger and violence in the region, it has proven the most
sustaining and intractable.
2)Elimination of
OPEC's ability to act as a cartel through bilateral and multilateral
trade negotiations. With peace comes trade; and with trade comes the
desire to talk and the ability to listen. While eliminating OPEC may be
impossible, diminishing its influence and securing concessions for free
trade from OPEC nations may, in the long run, be very possible.
Creating and maintaining a stable, secure and fair market for oil
should always be a priority for US foreign policy.
3)Pursue
direct and multilateral diplomacy to enact treaties that reward good
governance and democratization with strong trade and political
incentives. This effort should focus initially on creating democratic
systems within individual communities in an effort to build the
political infrastructure necessary to enact successful, sustainable
and, most importantly, peaceful democratic political reform.
Cross Posted at Fitz on Politics