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It's the month of August, stupid
With the banner headline on TPM being the latest in a string of hyped negative news about the imminent political collapse of President Barack Obama, I wanted to send this friendly little reminder to my brothers and sisters in arms reading this site today.
There is no news to report on health care. There was not going to be news to report on health care while Congress was in recess in the month of August.
We are in a state of ever increasing demand for something to happen on the health care front. And after weekly headlines throughout June and July sent us on a roller coaster ride that sometimes frustrated, sometimes encouraged, but ultimately resulted in a bill passing four congressional committees, the daily lack of movement or news feels somehow like a defeat.
But the absence of action, at least this month, is not the result of progress denied, but the consequence of no news to report during recess. In short, the problem isn't the bill: it's August, stupid.
Readers and writers need to get a grip on the calendar we're dealing with on health care.
The Obama White House had initially set a pre-recess deadline to pass a bill on the floor of each house. Their thinking was that momentum would be greatest if they could fast track a bill and keep caucus members from being exposed to weeks of negative attacks back home. Although they didn't anticipate the teabagging guerrillas at the town halls, they did know full and well that August would be unpleasant without a bill.
We are, in short, seeing how right they were.
But the fact remains that health care is in no better or worse position now than it was on August 1. The feeling of foreboding, panic, or the abstract sense of impending doom shared by many in pro-reform circles, is due more to a lack of news than any real setback. More to the point, the constant string of bad news in the past weeks has been more a cause of the news vacuum of August recess, giving reporters and pundits nothing else to do but report on town hall conflicts, premature "Obama has failed" obituaries, or worthless "what Obama could've done differently" navel gazing.
We need to set our sights on September. That's when the action resumes, and that will be the make-or-break period of getting health care done.
The White House knows this. Congressional leadership, including Chuck Schumer, know this. And they're not panicking because their schedule is set by action in Congress, not by the empty airtime on cable networks. They know that Chris Matthews does not have a vote in the Senate.
This ain't over. Get in the game.
There is no news to report on health care. There was not going to be news to report on health care while Congress was in recess in the month of August.
We are in a state of ever increasing demand for something to happen on the health care front. And after weekly headlines throughout June and July sent us on a roller coaster ride that sometimes frustrated, sometimes encouraged, but ultimately resulted in a bill passing four congressional committees, the daily lack of movement or news feels somehow like a defeat.
But the absence of action, at least this month, is not the result of progress denied, but the consequence of no news to report during recess. In short, the problem isn't the bill: it's August, stupid.
Readers and writers need to get a grip on the calendar we're dealing with on health care.
The Obama White House had initially set a pre-recess deadline to pass a bill on the floor of each house. Their thinking was that momentum would be greatest if they could fast track a bill and keep caucus members from being exposed to weeks of negative attacks back home. Although they didn't anticipate the teabagging guerrillas at the town halls, they did know full and well that August would be unpleasant without a bill.
We are, in short, seeing how right they were.
But the fact remains that health care is in no better or worse position now than it was on August 1. The feeling of foreboding, panic, or the abstract sense of impending doom shared by many in pro-reform circles, is due more to a lack of news than any real setback. More to the point, the constant string of bad news in the past weeks has been more a cause of the news vacuum of August recess, giving reporters and pundits nothing else to do but report on town hall conflicts, premature "Obama has failed" obituaries, or worthless "what Obama could've done differently" navel gazing.
We need to set our sights on September. That's when the action resumes, and that will be the make-or-break period of getting health care done.
The White House knows this. Congressional leadership, including Chuck Schumer, know this. And they're not panicking because their schedule is set by action in Congress, not by the empty airtime on cable networks. They know that Chris Matthews does not have a vote in the Senate.
This ain't over. Get in the game.
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August 28, 2009 3:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Recommended. Although don't you think that the lack of news in August provided the Obama administration an opportunity to champion a narrative rather than respond to one created for them?
August 28, 2009 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes and no. Obama went on a town hall tour of western states, which went well until a GOP plant at the Colorado event prompted Obama to suggest the public option was just a sliver of the plan. The August story from the WH then became one of backpedaling and clarifying their position on the issue.
While I think everyone agrees that the Prez's team would've helped themselves by being less vague on the public option, I continue to argue that their problems stem more from the lack of a bill and a slow news month. We wouldn't have to resort to reading tea leaves if there were a bill to campaign for. And really, the tea leaf position was what all of us were doing from June and July, making it just another example of how the story has been stuck since Congress adjourned.
I think one of the reasons why anger boiled over on the WH statements on the public option in August and not earlier was that anxiety, inaction, and frustration had built up to intolerable levels by the time Obama and Sebelius made those statements. That the AP and the NYT also decided to jump on the statements then and not before is another product of the slow news month.
Anyway, that's my opinion at least.
August 28, 2009 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
We agree mostly. I'd be a hypocrite if I didn't confess that. After all, I recently wrote a post about the detriment of the blogosphere resorting to reading tea leaves to create narratives:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/tpmgary/2009/08/00011100000000100011-said-one.php
August 28, 2009 4:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha! Binary code. Glad you linked back to that post.
Robert Reich is saying a lot of the same things today.
The DC press is populated by people who no little about the subject they cover.
August 28, 2009 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
"know little" oops
August 28, 2009 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not just the August, stupid. Apparently, its the August that makes us (and the MSM) stupid.
Been that way for the last ten or fifteen years. The shock therapy (and actual news to report) delivered to the MSM by Katrina is the only recent exception.
As long as everyone is being all I toldjasoee, I that there'd be a storm of stupid during August if both houses didn't get a bill passed and was pooh-poohed by some for my trouble.
I don't for a minute think that Obama people were unaware that August would descend into a shitstorm if each house didn't pass a bill before it left because, that's what happens in August. They should have had a plan to deal with it. I think they didn't because they knew word of such a plan would leak and the people trying to delay would point to the existance of the plan as a reason it was okay, even necessary, to delay.
August 28, 2009 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. Remember you and others saying that, and I remember even the WH linking delay to defeat. It was easy to spot, especially when the opposition message for July was "What's the Rush?" However, I think they were preparing for an onslaught of TV ads, and not the teabaggers.
As for what everyone's intention and plans are, I have no idea to know for sure, but I'll bet my car that no on in the press assigned to cover the story knows any better or has an interest in finding out the truth.
What I can guess is that the administration had a contingency plan for reconciliation way back when they put the budget together, but they really didn't want to use it. Plus, they've lived in fear of something dying on the Senate floor more than anything else, so they've tended to approach Baucus and company like a dying butterfly until they knew they had enough votes to pass something.
We've basically been hearing the same story since August 1, like a week's worth of polling all saying the same thing, but every new poll being covered like it's a new event.
August 28, 2009 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for telling me what month it is- dammit, missed my birthday :) It is August, and I must be stupid (or more stupider anyway). Sorry I didn’t stop thinking (I tried), but seriously, we’ve had some very good discussions here on HC this last month. Not only that, but there has been significant news, especially to those who felt HCR was already compromised by accepting a PO instead of a complete structural overhaul of the system (national HC). Even as this is posted, TPM has two front page articles, which basically indicate that Harry Reid is, like the President, more interested in bipartisanship than a public option. One can argue that these ambiguous statements mean little, but they are strong signals as to what will be accepted.
But, if we’re supposed to wait until the horse has left to close the barn doors because it’s vacation time, very well. Your point that no action is going on during recess is well taken, but there were good reasons to try to get something done before the break, especially while the economic reform momentum was stirred up. It's true, no one knows where this will go- even more a reason to keep the pressure on.
I wish someone would tell the Blue dogs and Repub Senators it’s August. Then they can tell the teabaggers. And all of those clown-school dropouts foaming with propaganda at town halls and other media events can unhooster their guns and get back to their beer and bar-b-que or get in their Vista Cruisers and take a big vacation.
August 29, 2009 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
As to the meaning of the title, see James Carville. Seemed like most everyone got that I wasn't calling them stupid.
And no, by all means, do not stop thinking during the month of August. Heaven forbid. My point was that the sinking perception that seems to have taken hold among us in the blogosphere and even the otherwise political press was that somehow the viability of health care reform was deteriorating with each passing day because people were expecting something that couldn't happen during recess. The absence of news led to hyper reactions to things that had been more or less unchanged since the previous month, and a lot of the stress over how the teabaggers had out mobilized the rest of us had to due more with the absence of a bill to mobilize behind rather than a "messaging" deficit.
As for what Reid and Obama really intend, I have more confidence in the latter than in the abilities of the majority leader. And I also think your characterization that Obama somehow wants bipartisanship more than a public option is a bit of a caricature that has unfortunately become too popular among these parts.
August 30, 2009 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Either "had to do" or "was due to" in the next to last paragraph. Wish I could edit these comments.
August 30, 2009 11:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm aware of the source of the title and was playing off of it (not serious, but disagreeing all the same). I didn't mean anything personal, it's a good blog, I just think the opposite is true- we're not active enough right now. Most of what happens with these bills, especially big controversial bills, happens in the realm of public persuasion and the media. More has gone on during the recess in this regard than before.
I'm not blaming Obama. I believe he wants to get a bill at any cost; to get as many covered as possible. But I don't think any bill is a good one. It must reform the system or it will set it back decades as it has over and over and over. Obama has been wishy-washy all along and floats balloons to see if people will raise a ruckus. We need to raise a ruckus or they'll conclude - no push-back, no downside.
I think we need to immediately raise our voices when something is proposed that will, in effect, defeat the purpose of the bill.All of those 'write your representatives' campaigns stopped when they should have been redoubled. Expectations for true reform have been whittled away bit by bit, and each time, proponents move their baseline: no single payer- we'll take Public option; no PO- we'll take co-ops; no co-ops- we'll go reconciliation (which most were saying wasn't doable here until congressmen and Obama started hinting at it).
Now Reid is implying that even that is off the table because bipartisanship is soooo very very important (he didn't castigate the Republicans for eight years in their completely partisan play. And thanks for the belated birthday wishes!
August 31, 2009 8:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the reply. I think we're mostly in agreement.
What I've tried to argue repeatedly, however, is that much (though not all) of what we've interpreted as trial balloons and backpedaling has been smoke and mirrors, reflected through the lens of a political press with little real news to cover and oftentimes an anti-reform, or at least an anti-public-option, agenda. It's no secret that Obama has been supportive up to a point of a public plan, which has allowed him to keep some flexibility with Congress and also freak the living hell out of the activists. His intentions may be to use it as a bargaining chip and scuttle it in order to get the bill passed, or it may be his way to avoid painting himself into a corner--maybe it's a bit of both.
Whatever disagreements I've had with the WH team over their execution, it has been dwarfed of late by the activist community's refusal to take yes for an answer and even play chicken with health reform over the public option. It's always a tricky relationship to balance principles with governance of power, but we've made a real hash of it so far.
My sense is that once we get a bill off the floor, there will be a bigger public campaign to rally behind.
September 1, 2009 11:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope so, fbacon. I agree the media tries to gin up controversy especially during slow news periods. But that works two ways. Often politicians and groups are using the media to see where the edge of the envelope is; how far they can go.
There were two TPM front page stories today quoting Axelrod- one said he was implying the P.O. was dead; the other that it was almost a shoo-in. Go figure. The second talked about the organization Greenwald, FDL and others started (Act Blue?) that has received pledges from enough Representatives (through campaign donations mostly, of course) that the House may not vote out a bill without a PO. That may be a saving grace for HCR (may force the Senate to capitulate).
September 3, 2009 1:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also, happy birthday!
August 30, 2009 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink