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fairandbalanced

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March 12th

Circle March 12th on your calendar.

On that day, after being unable to gain ground on March 4th, after yet another blowout (this time in Mississippi), being broke, being down about 100 delegates (as more undeclared superdelegates break for Obama) or more, and staring at over a month of fruitless campaigning before the Penn. primary on April 22nd...

Hillary will drop out.

Does the Obama "revolution" fit within a broader global context?

Over the past couple of years, the world has seen a number of interesting "revolutions" of various colors (Orange, etc.). 

While in some cases these have been intertwined with partisan politics (where there was one clear party in power and one insurgent opposition), these have been by and large peaceful mass movements within an electorate energized by the possibility of changing HOW they are governed, and not advocating a change in the governmental framework (constitutions, etc.).  These have been by and large revolutions by the disenfranchised political center, wanting a change in the political discourse, and wanting more accountability and transparency and competence in their government.

In all these cases, modern communications (web, text, mobile phones) have played a critical enabling role.

So I would propose that the aggregate of these "revolutions" reflects a the results of an earlier communications revolution:  the democratization of media, the instantaneous nature of viral marketing and organization.  In all, it has enabled the disenfranchised center, which previously had been too diffuse and dispassionate to form effective collective action, to effectively organize. 

To put it simply, you no longer have to be a committed, outsider extremist to become part of a "movement".  And thus mainstream, centrist "movements" have swept the globe.

If all this is true (a big "if", admittedly), think about how the Obama campaign and its base support and recent momentum (and dependence upon these same enabling techs) might fit into this global narrative.

If so, it would give more credence to the Obama narrative that his campaign represents a chance for significant change, outside of just personality-driven effects.  If the Obama candidacy has become a keystone for an overdue mainstream, centrist revolution in the U.S., it could mean a significant political realignment into and beyond the general election.

...just something to ponder.



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