Exile on Ericsson St.'s Blog tag:www.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008:/talk/blogs/exile500//5009 2008-10-15T05:41:23Z 2008-10-15T05:29:25Z Movable Type Pro 4.21-en tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://14.236905-comment:3228414 Exile on Ericsson St. Commented on Overconfidence: A Sermon on Not Picking Your Cherries Until They Hatch by Todd Gitlin 2008-10-15T05:41:23Z 2008-10-15T05:41:23Z "scrutinizing the state totals, then totaling them again on the assumption that each Obama figure has to be discounted by 5 points."

I simply don't believe this is true. There is no evidence to support the idea that the Bradley effect is still there.

And, moreover, by lending credence to the myth that it is still there, we merely give Republicans a reason not to give up on this election. It hurts McCain when Brooks and Krauthammer and the rest jump off the Straight Talk bandwagon, and you know as well as I, there's only one reason they do it: they think he's going to lose anyway and this is their big chance to show they're not just Republican hacks.

So inventing new reasons to believe that McCain has a chance here is not just intellectually dishonest, it's also counterproductive politically.

Sorry to have to be a party pooper here.

]]> tag:tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com,2008://14.236864-comment:3228407 Exile on Ericsson St. Commented on A Profile in Nit-picking by Jim Sleeper 2008-10-15T05:29:25Z 2008-10-15T05:29:25Z I have a prediction to make: sometime between now and November 4, Brooks will write an article about ACORN and the threats of voter fraud. He may mix in something about "Chicago politics" and, since he really hasn't done this in a while, maybe a reference to his time as a beat reporter in Chicago. Maybe: "I knew guys named Lou and Vinnie who voted several times each year, but seeing Mickey Mouse on the voter rolls is a first for me. Plus ca change you can believe in."

I can't guarantee this, but at the very least we can expect a few "witty asides" about ACORN.

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