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Week of September 7, 2008 - September 13, 2008

The USA Today-Gallup Poll


It's being publicized and used dishonestly, and I can't belief TPM is going along with it. When Barack Obama was ahead 50-43 % among registered voters last week, RealClearPolitics did not add the figure to their average. The explanation - according to someone here - was that it was reflective of the three-day Gallup rolling poll.

Now John McCain is ahead 54-44 % among LIKELY VOTERS, RCP has added it to their average to give McCain a lead.

USA Today/Gallup did not give a likely voter figure for Obama. (Please correct me if I'm wrong.) So to provide and use the 54-44 for McCain is so unfair it leaves me breathless. This is besides the fact that the result is so unlikely that the methodology and motivation of the pollster should be questioned.

And while polls don't contribute to the final outcome, they do contribute to a narrative and a momentum that could affect the outcome. And that's why they're important and that's why I'm upset about this.

I'm hoping TPM would remove the USA Today poll or use the registered voter result. But you know why I think they, RCP and others are so eager to jump on it? They want to create an I-told-you-so narrative. They don't really believe Obama can win. Or they think he's running his campaign all wrong. So - yay! - here's a poll that proves them right. Shame on you TPM!
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Erline

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