Okay, poll people ---- how close is it going to tighten?
Trying to prepare myself for the "worst case" scenario over the next couple of weeks, so that - if necessary - I can watch it happen without starting to hyperventilate. The time left strikes me as about a week too long, long enough for one more trip on the roller coaster ride -- and it sure has been a roller coaster ride. I don't usually pay much attention to polls but know that I'll be obsessing over them for the rest of the time. Any wise advice from those of you who understand this particular phenomenon more? Do we look at the national tracking poll? the states? Do we want to see a 6+ point lead so that the possible "Bradley effect" can come into play with no adverse effect? Do we want to factor in 70% of the remaining undecideds for McCain (remembering all the 'late-breakers' who went for Clinton)?
So? .......... any words of wisdom or caution greatly appreciated.





I'd like to see a 7 percent lead. Don't ask me why, I just like that number.
More important is the lead in the swing states. That has to be up there around the 5+ mark.
But MOST important of all will be turnout. GOTV. GOTV. GOTV.
Keep canvassing. Keep calling. Sign up to give rides to the polls.
October 16, 2008 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Already signed out of work for the week before election and heading for Pennsylvania! Already signed up for one of the rural counties. I'd be happy with a 7% too -- also don't know why except that there is CW that the "Bradley effect," if it exists, might account for as much as 6%. Back to obsessing over the polls....
October 16, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
My read from the debate last night is that Obama lost Ohio. I wouldn't be surprised if McCain started edging ahead in OH polls this weekend.
Can't give you any inside scoop other than inside my gut: I'm from OH, and I know the things McCain said would have resonated with Ohioans. It has to do with being concrete, being specific. Like Hillary in the primary debate, McCain was more specific than Obama was.
October 16, 2008 4:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree about Ohio .. unfortunately. Don't agree that McCain was more specific, but having hung around SE Ohio for a while, I do think he said the phrases and hit the points that will catch attention and stick with those voters. Of course, having gone to Ohio in 2004 to work for Kerry, I can't think about that state and elections without thinking 'heartbreak.'
October 16, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gasket, were we watching the same debate?
Every answer that Obama gave (when he wasn't correcting McCain), he offered concrete examples of this plan.
McCain was string words together like popcorn and cranberries on a Christmas tree--messy and hard to follow.
October 16, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha! Okay, "specific" is the wrong word. They were both specific, each in his own way. It's more a matter of how each man presents the specifics.
McCain is direct, sometimes to a fault, whether by nature or by training (in the military, directness is acceptable and necessary). McCain can be too abrupt and blunt, and he has a kind of staccato delivery. What you describe as words strung together like popcorn and cranberries on a Christmas tree makes me think of a man who has been coached his whole career to alter his abruptness for civilian ears, as if by providing more explanation it will soften the bluntness. McCain's verbal awkwardness is much like George Bush's. Some people apparently find that style appealing.
Obama rarely answers questions directly or simply, rarely with a yes or no. Instead, Obama will provide the context surrounding yes or no, but leaves us to our own conclusions. He answers debate questions like a professor would teach a class. He's teaching us the answer rather than telling us the answer. Some people like that style best. Obama answers in the form of an essay; McCain answers like multiple-choice.
Conservative or liberal, people in Ohio want to know where a candidate stands, period. They will vote as easily for a Democrat as a Republican, but are suspicious of politicians who can't answer with directness (think Dennis Kucinich and George Voinovich). "Nuance" translates as equivocation, which is usually intended to deceive. In an extremely anxious time as the one we are currently in, Ohio voters want a no-nonsense candidate: someone who can perform surgery on the battlefield. I don't think Obama delivered a convincing message that he's the guy for that job.
Jay Cost wrote an interesting piece about the debate, comparing the pros and cons of these two different styles.
October 17, 2008 2:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, Gasket -- Thought you might be interested in this First Read entry on Ohio. If they are even trying for Marietta ... and if the more-direct Biden, HRC, and WJC are heading there ..... Then maybe ... just maybe...
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/10/17/1561327.aspx
October 17, 2008 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink