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Elizabeth2

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Can someone please explain Bill Clinton?

That, by the way, is a reheorical question, but feel free to give it a shot. 

"Every living soul on this planet has some highly-justified anger. Everyone. If you know anybody who was a P.O.W. for any time, they can be going on for years and all of a sudden something will happen that will trigger all those bad memories," - Bill Clinton, Aspen Ideas Festival, yesterday.

http://jeffreygoldberg.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/bill_clinton_on_unstable

According to the longer (not very) write-up, he segued into that from a question about Nelson Mandela (is he implying Madela is subject to fits of irrational rage???) and in his entire talk he never mentioned the name of Obama.  

Of course, the entire statement would have to be read/heard to know *how* off topic this was or whether mention of Obama would have been appropriate ----- but, still, I can't think of ANY situation in which this statement should be made by an ostensible surrogate of Obama.  Nor can I believe anyone, particularly the 'best living politician in the US,' can think or say "POW" without having at least an instantaneous thought of John McCain.

Way to rally the base, Bill!   -- the REPUBLICAN base, that is.

Serious question (really): Why is the FISA telecom immunity important?

This is the concluding paragraph of my post (many words from now):

"what IS the reason for the FISA immunity provision? why is it important? If you look just at the effect it’s had so far, I’m sure they are smiling (and chortling - maybe a guffaw or two) in the White House and in McCain headquarters. It has certainly turned into a full-blown turn-on-each-other-and-maul-your-candidate-too feeding frenzy, one that’s draining enormous amounts of time, energy and enthusiasm from the effort to get Obama elected. — So that means there MUST be some really important and compelling reason to oppose the immunity provision. Can someone please tell me what that reason is?"

That indicates pretty well what the post is about, and I’m the first to admit that it’s long and pedantic and boring. So read only if you are interested, but I would genuinely welcome serious responses, other thoughts or insights.

Starting point: Everyone, their brother, and their cousin is either furious & disgusted or sad & resigned about Obama’s (apparent) willingness to vote for a FISA bill that contains immunity for the telecoms. Since I’m an Obama supporter, I decided to look into it to find out just how bad his (apparently planned) transgression was. And since I have 20+ years of experience working as a lawyer in civil and government liability I figured that for me at least it would be a quick matter to figure out, easily understood. WRONG!

You see, I don’t expect any candidate or leader to be perfect, but I do like to know where they fall along the continuum: from "Wow, this wasn’t a bad thing at all, I really respect this person" – to – "Okay, acceptable human flaw or cynical but realistic pragmatism" – to -- "That’s really sick-making but can be tolerated in light of the big picture" – to – "Ugh.  Okay, I'll bury my head in the sand, pay no more attention to the campaign, and on election day put a clothespin on my nose and go vote." -- to --  "Absolutely unacceptable and I cannot in good conscience support this person, no matter what the consequences."

I’ve done this a couple of times on issues involving various candidates (for Obama , the supposed pro-choice weakness and "present" votes, supposed idolization of Ronald Reagan, Samantha Powers, NAFTA-gate, Rev. Wright). To my surprise and pleasure, he’s consistently been in the first or second of those categories. But I figured that with SO many people so blisteringly angry, this was going to be one of the bad ones – maybe even the ‘hold-the-nose’ level.

What I wanted was for someone to complete this sentence for me: "The retroactive telecom immunity in the current FISA bill is a bad thing, so bad it MUST be opposed, because ______________." Just a simple statement, containing or referencing relevant facts, so that I could mull over what I thought about Obama’s (maybe) abandoning the fight against this immunity.

Here’s an example of such a statement, although it goes the other way because this is the only conclusion I’ve been able to reach based on what I’ve learned or been able to figure out so far (admittedly not a full scale project, I do have a day job... alas):

"The rectroactive telecom immunity in the current FISA bill is essentially meaningless and certainly NOT bad enough to fight over, because there is no evidence or any good reason to believe that the telecoms did anything that makes them potentially liable to their customers. They can only be liable if they violated the FISA statute that was in effect at the time, and I can find no FACTUAL allegations that they did anything that would constitute such a violation. Since either granting or denying them immunity would have little or no real-life impact, it should be an utter non-issue."

I may be wrong - I probably am -- that’s what I want you to tell me. But here’s how I arrived at that conclusion: My first (lazy) step was to simply post the question ("why is FISA immunity such a big deal?") on various threads on TPM. If so many of the knowledgeable and insightful folks on this board are THIS angry upset, then surely they know why they’re so angry. Right?

To my utter surprise, until recently most of what I received were >>>crickets<<< — or furious diatribes about people who would dare question Obama — or furious diatribes about people who would dare question people who question Obama — or statements that are so generic as to have no content (e.g., "because the telecoms broke the law") -- or scoldings because "that's already been discussed" but never stating any conclusion of that discussion. Finally, recently, I got some more serious responses that I greatly appreciated. So far, however, none of them see very persuasive legally.

By now I’m starting to wonder what all the angry people are saying in their letters and petitions to Obama, and calls and faxes to their Senators? Are you just saying "You. Must. Fight.This" ..... or are you giving them a reason why it’s important to fight it? If so, what are they saying that's going to convince these folks? Obama and most of the others are lawyers, too, so they'll be looking at the same things I do. So, if you like, consider this as a primer, one that can help you tell him and the world how wrong he is to take this (apparent) position.

One statement I received most often, and had seen written elsewhere, but that really doesn’t make sense legally is this: "We have to be able to sue the telecoms because they violated our our 4th amendment right to privacy." Legally, this is just a non-starter. Sorry.

No individual or a private company can violate any of your constitutional rights, because they have no duty to protect those rights. Only the government does. To get any sort of liability, against anyone, you have to have 3 things: a duty owed by the defendant to the plaintiff, a breach of that duty, and an injury caused by that breach. The Constitution gives citizens rights vis a vis the government .. and only the government. (Look at the Bill of Rights. They are either worded "Congress shall make no law affecting ..." or set limits on something that only governments do: quarter soldiers, issue warrants, prosecute crimes, empanel juries, set bail, etc.).

Of course, telecoms (and other businesses) can be liable to their customers, but only if they breach either a common law duty or statutory duty that is owed directly to those customers. So what is the potential liability here? Common law doesn’t seem to be involved and even if it were, there wouldn't be any liability without without proof of actual, measurable damages.  As a rule, statutory duties are not owed directly to individuals but are "general," they're owed to the public, or the citizens as a whole, to the state. Thus, the government can impose civil or criminal penalties if a statute is violated, but even a proven violation doesn’t give any specific individual the right to sue the violator for damages. (Unless there is a common law cause of action, and then the statutory violation could be evidence of, say, negligence.)

As I understand it, the then-existing FISA statute made it possible for individuals affected by a statutory violation to sue telecoms by creating a "private right of action" And it greatly essentially eliminated the requirement that the plaintiff prove actual damage, because it imposes penalties payable to the plaintiff simply upon proof that the statue was violated in a way that affected them. Still, in order for the telecoms to actually be liable, the plaintiff HAS to prove that they violated one or more of the duties imposed on them by the statute.

So, did they? Russ Feingold says no. Honest, he really does. First, he states in any number of places, on his web page and elsewhere, that in allowing access to customer’s confidential information the telecoms are "already immune from lawsuits, as long as they get a court order or a certification from the attorney general that the wiretap follows all applicable statutes." This is absolutely true:  apparently this is the duty imposed on the telecoms by the statute and if they complied with the statute, then there was no breach of duty = no liability. Next, he states that information declassified by the Senate Intelligence Committee indicates that the telecom companies all received "written requests stating the activity was authorized by the President and determined to be lawful" before permitting access. (This is a bit harder to find but one place is http://feingold.senate.gov/issues_fisafacts.html.)

But I'm not saying that nothing illegal happened - it did.  As I understand it, the FISA statute provided that before the government could legally obtain otherwise confidential information from the telecoms, two and sometimes three things had to occur:

1) The government had to serve the telecom with either a court order (warrant) or a written request for access accompanied by a certification from the AG that the request is lawful;

2) The telecom had to make sure that the warrant or request had all the proper information and authorizations. If it did not, they were required to refuse access; if it did, they were required to permit access.

3) If the government had not gotten a warrant ahead of time but used an AG certification instead in #1, then it had to go to the FISA court within a certain number of days to get a warrant issued after the fact.

There appears to be no dispute that in many if not all cases, the government violated the statute because it did not carry out #3. Still, everything up until that point appears to have been legal, and the telecoms "participated" only at #2, which was before things went sour. So, the government’s obtaining the information was illegal, and, as Feingold and others charge, the telecoms did "participate in" what was ultimately an illegal program to obtain information. But that does not – without something more - mean that the telecoms violated the statute so as to make them potentially liable to their customers for the illegal intrusion.

If what I have described above is all that is required and if it is all that happened, then the telecoms simply don’t need any immunity. That means all this fight about whether or not to give them immunity is, in terms of real life impact, an empty and meaningless exercise. If Sen. Obama has decided not to waste his resources (time, energy, political capital) on an empty exercise but instead chooses to pay attention to his campaign for the presidency, I - frankly - commend him. Even if someone thinks that immunity should be opposed because it "looks bad"  whether or not it has any meaning, fine - condemn.  But, if it is really meaningless, I don’t think his failure to do oppose it really ranks as a mortal sin (those are the bad ones, right?) and it certainly wouldn’t warrant  revolt and repudiation or at the least great discouragement by thousands of his supporters. Agree?

So there must be something more. Surely if there is this much opposition, sometimes semi-hysterical opposition, to granting immunity then there HAS to be some realistic theory of liability that the immunity would allow them to escape.

Did they know the warrants or certifications were forged, for example? Does the statute impose some other duty on them that they didn't fulfill?  (Hey, maybe it required them to follow up and make sure #3 got done and, if it wasn’t, then to insist on a warrant before granting any further access.  I don't think it did, but it should have!)? Those would be easy enough to explain: Immunity bad "....... because the telecoms violated the statute by accepting forged certifications and therefor could not in "good faith" allow access to the information." and "...... because the telecoms violated the statute by not following up to see if the government ever got the after-the-fact warrant and by continuing to release information on an AG certificate thereafter." ( I’m just making up these facts and provisions, by the way .... I’ve spent about a week trying to come up with factual scenarios under which the telecoms could be liable to their customers for participating in this admittedly illegal program. Some of the hypotheses were even wilder!)

But there has to be something — some action, even if hypothetical or merely alleged, that would constitute a breach of duty on the part of the telecoms and make them liable to their customers. If there isn’t, then this whole liability/immunity issue doesn’t mean anything at all.

After being quite a pest about this and, I suppose, finally convincing some people that I really was asking a question, not making an argument that started out with a question, I did get some serious, thought-provoking responses, to which I would like to respond. (I’m not identifying anyone because some comments were made by more than one person, some I got elsewhere, some I’ve reworded a bit, and in any event, I haven’t gotten anyone’s permission to identify them.  But their comments were greatly appreciated and if you recognize yours, please feel free to take credit!!) --------- I should say that dijamo and readytoblowgasket gave me the most serious and thoughtful responses. (And I hope you won’t be insulted if I say that the two of you wouldn’t necessarily have been ones I’d have predicted.... it’s very nice to be surprised, sometimes.)

Here are the suggestions I received or have found for completing that sentence about why it’s so important to fight retroactive immunity - followed by my comments:

***"Retroactive immunity is a bad thing no matter what the circumstances and should always be opposed. It sends the message that someone can break the law and get away with it."

Not so. In fact, granting retroactive immunity is most often done to promote justice and fairness, to protect people who did not intend to break the law and did not know they were breaking the law when they performed a certain act. Unlike the criminal law, where ex post facto laws (reaching back, having retroactive effect) are not permitted (Bill of Rights), in civil law the "default" position for new statutes and new court interpretations is that the new law applies to all matters then pending or commenced in the future. So it would be possible for you to do something today that you believe is legal and that *is* legal – Then tomorrow a statute is enacted or a court interpretation "elaborated" that makes that act illegal — Day after tomorrow you could be sued by someone who was injured by that now-illegal act or charged with having committed the now-illegal act. ---- And since you did commit the act, you could potentially be found liable or subject to a penalty for doing something you never knew or dreamed was wrong. -------  Obviously, that that’s very unfair on occasion, so in appropriate cases statutes and even court rulings can and do give "retroactive immunity" by saying that the people do did the act before the law was passed or "clarified" shall not be liable or subject to penalty. It’s actually a very good thing most often.

***"It’s clear the GWB administration had no lawful authority to do this, because there is no question that the request was unlawful and the telecoms complied without proper authority."

Under the above set of facts – which are the only FACTS that I’ve been able to come up with, the initial request (#1) was lawful, the telecoms’ complaince (#2) was in response to proper authority, but the government’s last duty (#3) wasn’t carried out. Therefore, you’re correct: the Bush administration did not have lawful authority to possess the information because the statutory requirements for obtaining it were violated. But the telecoms did comply with the part of the statute that applied to them.

Yeah, I know, I know. This is why people hate lawyers. But there really is no getting around that basic rule of civil liability: the defendant has to have violated a duty owed to the plaintiff (and cause injury) before liability can be imposed. So what duty did the telecoms owe to their customers that they breached?

***"We are allowing them to get away with violating the privacy rights of their customers absent lawful authority and we the people have absolutely zero recourse."

See above answer as to the telecom’s having lawful authority for allowing access. And remember that telecoms are private corporations. Only the government has a duty to protect or ability to violate your constitutional rights. If the facts are as set out above, then the only recourse the law would ever able to permit would be recourse against the party that breached its duty: the government. And, as a general rule, governments are immune: sovereign immunity. They cannot be sued except by their own consent. (But see next paragraph.)

***"Rights were violated, and you can’t sue the government so you should be able to sue the telecoms."

Actually, you can sue the government. As I mentioned above, there is the overall protection of sovereign immunity and, in addition, duties that are imposed by statute or constitution are "general duties," owed to the public as a whole (or all citizens, or the state itself), not to specific individuals. Sovereigns, however, can permit themselves to be sued in certain situations, and they can create, by statute, private rights of action, permitting individuals to bring an action when there is a constitutional or statutory violation. 

The FISA statute, for example, created a private right of action allowing individuals to sue the telecoms (or otherwise we would never have been talking about immunity!). Did it create a private right of action against the government as well? I don’t know, but it is possible that the customers may have the ability to sue the government for a statutory violation.

In any event, to the extent these actions implicate the 4th amendment (very much so, I'd say), many years ago Congress enacted 42 USC 1983, which creates a private right of action for anyone whose constitutional rights are violated by a person acting "under color of law" (i.e., by a government official). It’s a very powerful tool and was absolutely critical to advances made during the civil rights movement. Like habeas corpus, it is frequently overused and trivialized (most prisoner litigation, etc.) but it remains an extremely important weapon against governmental excess – as does habeas corpus.

I continue to be puzzled why no one is looking at or talking about pursuing this remedy and simply suing the government directly. (Hmmm, Maybe they were distracted by all this talk of telecom immunity?? See my last comment below.) Granted you can’t win big money damages in a 1983 action if all you prove is a constitutional violation; that gets only nominal damages.  To recover more you have to prove actual injury. (Unlike the FISA statute, which give $$$ just for proving the violation.) BUT .... a whole series court rulings that the government violated the constitutional rights of telecom customers would not be without effect: serious, major effect. Trust me on that one.

***"The telecoms may be liable for giving assistance in a database collecting private customer information for an NSA database. Qwest refused to participate in the database program." (With cite to an article: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-05-10-nsa_x.htm,23910_5719566,00.html)

Now .... this is precisely the sort of thing I’ve been looking for: concrete allegations of something that could lead to liability on the part of the telecoms, something that would therefore make immunity have some impact.  Apparently it's not precisely the same program as the wiretapping, but I gather the FISA statute applies to this as well.  There is a suggestion in the article that Qwest refused to provide the information at least in part because NSA wouldn’t give them an AG certification. That would be doing precisely what the statute required them to do: allow access if you’re given a court order or AG certification; deny it if they don’t give you one or the other.

Did the other telecoms act without receiving either a warrant or AG certification? Is there any reason to think that happened? Has anyone alleged that? What does this do to Feingold’s statement that the telecoms did get appropriate information?  Was he talking only about wiretapping.  Or maybe – do you suppose? – everyone up until Qwest got the AG certification but there were some, er, "changes" in the AG’s office that meant certifications were a bit harder to come by?  So there’s missing information, but it’s certainly a possibility.  But then, why is no one saying this.  It would be easy enough.  ."Retroactive telecom immunity is a bad thing because there is good reason to believe (or evidence to suggest) that one or more of them cooperated in giving the government access to information without being served with either a court order or AG certification." At the moment, however, all that we have - factually - is Feingold’s statement that the telecoms that provided access had been served with the appropriate documents and a suggestion that Qwest didn’t provide access or information when it wasn’t served with an AG certification. There is nothing to suggest irregularity (a/k/a breach of duty, a/k/a violation of statute) in either of those.

** "Given that Qwest found the (NSA) surveillance program unlawful, the telecoms that did comply with it should not be granted immunity."

Well, in a legal sense, Qwest can "find" anything; that’s for courts to do. But they did refuse to provide information. ----  If they refused because they weren’t given an AG certification, then that was just doing their statutory obligation. --- I thought I read somewhere, however, that Qwest had refused because it became aware that the government was routinely failing to get that after the fact warrant ( #3) and therefore took the position that it could not in "good faith" comply with what was, on its face, a lawful order.
          If so, a gutsy move, and a principled one. And in the end the good one, because the government backed down and did not charge them with violating the statute. (It works both ways, you know .... *refusing* when the demand is proper is a violation of the statute, just as much as granting access in the absence of a proper demand would be.)

For the argument that "Qwest refused so that means the others should have refused," however, that's true only if the reason Qwest refused was the absence of an AG certification and the other telecoms didn’t get one either. If Qwest refused because it was rightfully suspicious of the legality of what the government was doing, maybe the others "should" have in some ethical sense but they were not legally required to do so. It seems a quaint if not foolish idea after 7 years of GWB and Cheyney, but in the law there is always a presumption that the government is operating lawfully and for good purpose. You can rarely get in trouble if you assume that is true, and you can get in a LOT of trouble if you assume the other way and refuse to obey a government order or comply with a statute. So even if the other telecoms had the same reasons to be suspicious that Qwest did (and it’s not at all clear that was the case), the prudent course of action would still be for them to carry out their duty under the statute (scrutinize the order or demand to make sure it’s proper and, if so, permit access) and let it go at that. Repeating myself --- the telecoms and other private parties do not have a duty to protect our constitutional rights, and so they cannot be liable if there is such a violation.  In this scenario, Qwest would be taking a bit of a risk and, one could argue, being a hero. Thank God there are heroes (although, as MLK found, they sometimes wind up in jail for doing the right thing), but there is no DUTY to be a hero. (I suppose, come to think of it, that's why they are heroes -- going above and beyond duty.)

Bottom line:  tou can’t be liable to someone for not being a hero. Okay, if you are told, even with proper documentation, to do something truly egregious like "go exterminate those Jews" (or, arguably, "go waterbord this prisoner") and  you obey, you may be guilty of crimes against humanity but you're probably still not civilly liable to the injured party. In most cases, however, you are expected to obey all apparently lawful government orders and you are safe from liability (or penalty) if you do so.

*** If the court cases against the telecoms are allowed to proceed, we would learn more about how the govt broke the existing law, namely, how intrusive and extensive the surveillance was.

I’ve heard this a good bit, and Feingold keeps emphasizing it as well. But — again – you have to look at the facts that are going to be in issue. You can only get discovery of information that is "material and relevant" to the lawsuit. The facts at issue in determining whether the telecoms violated the statute appear to be very limited, based on what I’ve been able to find out. Was the demand from the government? Was the demand contained in a warrant?  If there was no warrant, was it accompanied by a certification from the Attorney General?  -------  Discovering the information that is relevant and material to those questions won’t get you anywhere near issues like how intrusive or extensive the surveillance was.

IF there were credible allegations that the telecoms violated the statute by giving access to more material than was authorized in the demand, then this argument might carry some weight. But if that is the reason immunity is so important, then why is no one saying it?  Easy enough to say: "Retroactive telecom immunity is a bad thing because there is good reason to believe (or evidence to suggest) that the telecoms gave access to information that went beyond the information authorized to be released by the warrant or described in the request accompanied by the AG certification. Giving access to that "extra" information , therefore, was a violation of the statute in that it was provided without any lawful authority."

By the way, if you want discovery rights to the really meaty stuff - information dealing directly with with privacy interests, the scope of the surveillance, and the use to which information has been put – then you need to sue the government. And, as noted above, you can.

*** "Obama should oppose immunity because he himself has stated that the law was "clearly" broken. Was he just speaking carelessly?."

The law was "clearly" broken - by the government. I believe they have acknowledged that they did go though with #3, getting or even applying for the after-the-fact warrant.  So the statement  you quote would be correct, but that still wouldn't make the telecoms liable, however.

If Obama ever said that it was clear *the telecoms* had violated the law (I don’t know if he did or not.) then either he was being careless and didn’t get all the information and think it through before speaking (I think that would fall in the "human failing" category of sins) — or he knows more than we do about the activity of the telecoms and knows there are some facts that would make them liable. Same thing goes for Feingold, by the way. Again, if that is the reason telecom immunity is such a big deal, it’s easy enough to say: ("Retroactive immunity is bad because there is information that I have seen but which cannot become public unless there is a lawsuit that suggests the telecoms violated the statute in a way I’m not at liberty to describe" - In other words, "take me on faith." Which, actually, I’d be willing to do, with both Obama or Feingold ... but neither one of them are saying that, that I’ve heard.)

**Even if retroactive telecom immunity isn’t so bad, Obama said he would vote against any bill that has immunity in it and I want a president who sticks to his word."

Well, if you want a president who takes the attitude that "I said that’s what I’m going to do and by gum I’m going to do it come hell or high water and even if I learn down the road that it’s a stupid thing to do and even if I find out that it’s not working, I’m going to keep on doing it because, by golly, I said I would" ..... then you must have been very happy for the last 7 ½ years.

For myself, I prefer a president who will mean what he says when he says it, who will carry through with what he says he will do unless there is good reason not to, but who is  brave and intelligent enough to change his position if he gets information that shows it’s a bad course of action or if something happens to cause priorities to get shuffled. (As I think I said in some post early on, if you promised to teach your daughter to play tennis on Thursday afternoon but a tornado is roaring down the street at that time, it really is okay - even a good thing - to break your promise and instead shove her in the car and get out of town.)

And, finally, there is the big one – the heart of the matter – possibly the most critical, persuasive "reason" of them all:

***"If the customers don't have a case against the telecoms, why is the gov't so intent on immunity?"

And that, I think, is something that's in the back of everyone’s mind. It might even be good enough, in and of itself, for some of those in Washington who’ve had to deal with this particular government for so long.  You could hardly blame them.

I have no idea – not on the White House grapevine. But, being a lawyer, I can hypothesize on almost anything (except, it appears, grounds for finding telecoms liable).  So here are a few:

(1) If, as some imply, it was the telecoms themselves that wrote and are insisting on the provision, then it’s a no-brainer. Deal with corporate or bank attorneys for any length of time and you’ll learn that they are absolutely, uniformly programmed: get them upset, hint that anything is the least irregular, even telling them about a problem that was discovered and resolved,  and they start squawking "Immunity - Immunity - I want immunity!" From what? "Anything and everything. Something is irregular, something was irregular so it could happen again; someone is angry, they might sue us , I don’t want to get sued – I. Want. Immunity."  And this is NOT an exaggeration (well, not much of one); there truly does not have to be a rational reason. Here, they wound up within shouting distance of something illegal - their names wound up in the paper - people were upset,  therefore they must have immunity. They may even know they don’t need it and there’s no good reason Congress should grant it ...... but I’ll guarantee they would ask for it anyway. You never know until you ask, and hey, it just *feels* so much better to be able to look at a piece of paper and "I’m immune. I’m immune. No one’s going to get me cause I’m immune." (Can you tell I don’t work for a bank or big corporation but run across their attorneys too often?)

(2) Maybe it’s the government’s attempt to be fair and just. Hey, don’t laugh - it’s always possible. I guess. They may know the telecoms did not violate the statute but because the government did and got them involved in an illegal mess, the telecoms might get sued and  then they would get all upset (see above). Since the illegality was all on the part of the government, maybe they thought it would be fair to keep the telecoms from being harassed for simply doing their duty. Okay, I’m not putting any money on this either but I had to mention it because this is the traditional reason for retroactive immunity.

(3) Karl Rove is sneaking back into the White House at night and whispering into Bush’s ear: "Look, you want to get people’s attention off the fact that we violated both the statute and the Constitution? You want to draw their attention away from the nasty little traps we’re sneaking in to the *other* part of this new FISA bill? Why don’t you throw them some red meat see if you can’t get a little food fight going on. You and I know the telecoms didn’t do anything they could be held liable for, BUT if we absolutely insist that they be given immunity, I bet you anything those liberal do-gooders will just go nuts! You know how they *hate* the big corporations, don’t trust anything we do, and are always sniffing around trying to find out what goes on behind closed doors over here.  If you act like you’re terrified the telecoms will be sued, then they’ll be like a pack of Bloodhounds: sniffing around, trying to figure out what they did wrong, figuring out how they can get a crack at us by suing them.   It’ll be fun. And if we’re really lucky ...... that Obama is pretty smart, so he may figure out it’s just a red herring and says he doesn’t really care. Actually, that would be great. Then you’d have some of them shooting at him for "caving in" or some such thing ... and others of them will start shooting at the ones who are shooting at Obama ... and they’d all be mad at Obama for ‘causing’ this problem. Wouldn't that be wonderful! And all the while, no one will be spending time thinking about how bad we were, or paying a lot of attention to the other things we want to get past them – oh, like intruding into their privacy some more, and getting rid of habeas corpus, maybe invading Iran, and maybe McCain can pick up some steam while they are occupied. Nope, they’ll be busy trying their hearts out to get at the telecoms so they can sue them — and, if they ever get to succeed, they’ll lose!! God, playing with the minds of these Democrats is so much fun!!!"

BTW, Rove IS capable of that. (Check back to his very first, baby effort at such play – involved a judge named Kennedy in Alabama. And he just got more ‘talented’ after that. Particularly effective but largely unnoticed were his efforts in early 2004 to make sure abortion or gay rights were going to be on the November ballots in certain swing states. That’s called "planning ahead.")

(4) GWB or some minion: "Damn. They caught us red-handed. Oh, well, we’ll have to try it a new way and I guess there has to be a new FISA bill. Hmmmmm — I wonder if folks will be so mad at what we did that they’d want to sue us. Oh, probably not - they couldn’t get much money and it’s a lot of work; only cranky prisoners and other ‘losers’ pay attention to section 1983 anymoore. But... wait ... folks do know they could get a lot of money from the telecoms if they could prove something.  Of course they couldn't but that won't stop them from suing and maybe even getting a nice settlement.  -- Oh, hell. If that happened, we'd have to deal with them jumping all over us, going 'woe is me - it's your fault,' and giving us grief when we want to get at more of their secret information.  --- Hey, I know! Let’s toss in some language that says we’re going to make the telecoms immune. It won’t mean anything, but it will make them happy, get them out of our hair. And, hey, if we have to ‘lose a battle’ along the way, we could agree to let that provision go, no harm to anyone, and we can remind the telecoms that we tried.(Weeks pass.)
"Well, would you look at that!!!???  Those folks are just going bonkers over that stupid immunity thing we put in to ‘make nice’ to the telecoms!  Wow - maybe there are advantages to a 28% approval rating, after all.  People are so suspicious of you that they assume anything you want is bad even when it doesn’t mean a damn thing.  Well, can’t waste an opportunity like this.  Let's see if Dick can get someone to get out some leaks to the press.  (Where's Scooter when you need him?)  They should just let it drop that the administration is going down to the wire on this provision, that we feel it’s our moral and ethical obligation (yeah, will that get them really suspicious!) to protect the telecoms from all those lawsuits they’ll be facing – all those ‘successful,’ and ‘lucrative’ lawsuits that are going to turn up so much ‘juicy information’ about the inner workings of this place. That should do it.   ---------  If we’re lucky, maybe they’ll start fighting amongst themselves, making people mad, getting people mad at Obama if he doesn’t fall for the joke, getting people mad if he does fall for it, getting other people mad at the people who are mad at Obama. Who knows, those crazy liberal bloggers might set up web sites and launch petition drives and all that sort of stuff . Wouldn’t that be great? It'll keep them out of our hair, take there attention away from the (cough! cough!) other goodies we slipped in the other part of the bill  and a few other projects we'd like to get done ...... and best of all keeps them from doing any work for Obama."

Okay, I’m not usually a conspiracy theorist (and I don’t know if you can create a conspiracy by stumbling... but if anyone can, it’s GWB).   Still, when no one can articulate a good reason for the telecoms or the government to seriously care about immunity, because there doesn’t seem to be any potential liability, then you start trying to make some kind of sense of it.

So ........   what IS the reason for the FISA immunity provision? why is it important? If you look just at the effect it’s had so far, I’m sure they are smiling (and chortling - maybe a guffaw or two) in the White House and in McCain headquarters. It has certainly turned into a full-blown turn-on-each-other-and-maul-your-candidate-too feeding frenzy, one that’s draining enormous amounts of time, energy and enthusiasm from the effort to get Obama elected. — So that means there MUST be some really important and compelling reason to oppose the immunity provision. Can someone please tell me what that reason is?


Morning Joe: Discussion of Bill, Vanity Fair, etc.

I'm probably naive - well, very naive.  But I was actually shocked this morning at the discussion about Bill Clinton's supposedly well-known but not publicly discussed "outside interests" (of the sort set out in the Vanity Fair article) -- so well-known, it was said, that the "problem" may well disqualify Hillary as VP -- so well-known, in fact, that it was the reason some inWashington did not endorse Hillary's campaign. 

It was Joe S., mainly, talking about this, but a couple of his guests were agreeing that they also knew.   Please - I don't take everything Joe says as gospel (FAR from it!!) but this just is not the sort of thing one person, let along 3 or so, is going to make up and say on national television.  According to him, this is the kind of thing that commentators and even the press simply don't bring up, even though it's clear the public doesn't know and might well want to know (Uh, yeah - it did have just a tad of impact on our country the last time, you know....).   But it's not spoken of, unless there is an 'outside' reason/excuse to do so - which the Vanity Fair article has provided.

So -- am I (very) naive to have thought that Bill had either finally grown up or at least learned to be totally, absolutely discrete??   If she had become the nominee, were the Republicans REALLY going to honor this code of silence or whatever it is? (Even I'm not that naive!) And if she was somehow elected, is there any faint, gossamer, wisp of a reason to believe there wouldn't have been another unsavory scandal in the White House? 

I hope it's totally untrue (that anything like this was so well-known) ---- but  if it is, I'm torn between feeling genuine heartbroken sympathy/empathy for Hillary and awe at the greater-than-we-imagined strength and 'grit' she must possess ...... and  ........ a strong desire to shake her and say "How DARE you risk putting us through that again?"   

You know, it's pretty clear she deserved something better than the campaign Bill and his buddy Penn put together for her, and I'm really, really thinking she deserves something better than Bill - period. 

Frank Rich: "One Historic Night, Two Americas"

Haven't seen anyone refer to this, but about 10 friends have sent me the link (just as I was sending it to them).  One doesn't want to become complacent .. or tempt fate .. but it certainly DOES make nice reading:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/opinion/08rich.html?ref=opinion

Does anyone recall which op-ed columist ....

.... wrote, sometime after the NH primary, that the nominee was eventually going to be Obama but that it would happen only after a series of "almosts" and then "backing off" -- like someone trying to get up their nerve to jump off the high diving board.  Go for it -- retreat -- charge out again, a bit further -- retreat again.  But he/she was confident that in the end the Democratic voters would summon up their nerve and actually DO it. 

I've thought of that often over the past few months, listening to folks say "why can't Obama close the deal?" and thinking "it's not him, it's us - it's frightening to do down such a new, different path --- but we really do want to, and there's still a chance."   I think it was the folks in IN and NC who finally summoned up the courage.  

It was probably someone in the NYT or Washington Post, because that's where I usually read the columns.  Does anyone recall reading anything like that?


What the *&^%???? Sending a message to Hillary.

She asked people to tell her what they thought she should do, and I decided to do as she asked.  HOWEVER, when you go on her infamous www.hillaryclinton.com site, your only option is to list your name, e-mail, and zip code under a 'message' that says "I'm with you Hillary and I am proud of everything we are fighting for."  Only THEN can you leave a comment (mine was going to be "Don't do it - don't got for the "subservient" role of VP --- ask for a cabinet position instead.")   But I'll be damned if I tell her first that I'm "with" her and proud of whatever she's fighting for.  -- I've sent several messages to Obama .... one didn't have to sign a "loyalty pledge" first .   This is utterly ridiculous!!!!  I was prepared  to give her every benefit of the doubt and give my best for 'unity.'   But this is utterly ridiculous!

The best post (and thread) I've ever read on TPM

I don't know if this is legitimate or not, but this post is special, and one of the best I've ever read, on this quite worthwhile site:

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/06/for-the-first-time-in-my-adult.php

Do Michigan and Florida matter? (and a proposal)

What importance will any decision about MI and FL actually have? How much is a fight worth?

Setting aside all the silliness and (arguably valid) concerns about following rules put in place by the relevant authorities and rules that you have agreed to. or disenfranchizing voters (both those who voted and those who *didn't* because they were told - by HRC among others - that their votes wouldn't count), what would/will the outcome be in terms of actual delegate count and the nomination?

Not much. Not even if you assume the very *best* possible outcome (from the Clinton point of view) from here on in. That would require:

-- Michican being seated with 73 delegates for Clinton and none for Obama (the 55 'uncommitted' delegates would not be pledged to any candidate and thus become "free" delegates),

-- 105 FL delegates being assigned to her and only 67 given to Obama (rather than the actual balance of 80, creating another 16 'free' delegates),

-- Obama gets no more endorsements from Edwards delegates beyond the 12 he already has, creating another 6 'free' delegates,

-- no more Clinton delegates switch to Obama,

-- none of the 257 currently uncommited superdelegates endorse Obama,

-- Clinton wins Puerto Rico by 63% to 35% and Obama wins SD and MT by only 55%/45%, resulting in the following delegate splits: PR 36 C, 19 O – MT 7 C, 9 – SD 7 C, 8 O.

Starting with MSNBC's current pledged delegate count of (1502 for Clinton and 1647 for Obama), by June 4 the pledged delegate totals would be:

CLINTON 1730 OBAMA: 1750

If MI and FL are counted, the 'Magic number for a majority of pledged delegates would be 1784, (Note: this still includes the 6 Edwards, 16 FL and 55 MI "free" delegates for purposes of calculating the magic number, although one could argue for a lower number.) And with MI and FL in the mix, the total needed to clinch the nomination would be 2209. (Without MI and FL, the ‘magic number’ for pledged delegates is 1627 and the number needed to clinch is 2024.)

Current Superdelegate (and committed 'free' del) count is:

CLINTON 281.5 OBAMA 309.5 + 12 Edwards = 321.5

Thus, their total delegate count as of June 4, under this 'best for Clinton' scenario would be:

CLINTON: 2011.5 (197.5 needed to clinch)

OBAMA: 2071.5 (137.5 needed to clinch)

The balance of their delegates would have to come from the "pool" of 334 remaining delegates (257 SD + 6 Edwards + 16 FL + 55 MI).

To win, Obama would have to get 41% (137.5/334) of those remaining delegates to support him ------- For Clinton to win, she would have to convince 59% (197.5/334) of them to turn their back on the majority of the pledged delegates (and number of contests won and popular vote, if counted fairly) and chose her over Obama.

So, CAN she win? Theoretically yes, Will she win? No, not even under the absolute best-for-her scenario, which will be a little bit less positive the minute another SD endorses Obama, or another Edwards delegate annouces, or another Clinton SD switches, or he does better than projected above in any of the remaining contests.

I'm sure that even Clinton herself knows this by now, and it must be absolutely "crazy-making" for her to have to get up every day and go out there and pretend otherwise. (In fact, that is probably the true explanation for her recent gaffes and, well, "crazy" statements.) That strength and determination is, without doubt, impressive. It would be admirable IF she was acheiving anything positive by it. If it really makes a difference to her supporters that she "finish the course," then perhaps it is worthwhile (the endurance, not the nastiness). I’m a woman, so please don’t try to tell me that women somehow need her to make such an effort. If she could do it with class and dignity, maybe.  But I - and others - are embarrassed and frankly humiliated by the way she is carrying on this fight.  Most of us want real equality, which in this case would mean that no one would be tolerating her current behavior.

For Obama to clinch the nomination on June 4, even under this 'best-case-for-Clinton' scenario, he would need to receive the endorsement of 137.5 more delegates, 41% of the available pool.

Other scenarios:

If he's given the 55 MI delegates, he would need 82 more superdelegates (24% of a 'pool' of 279)

If FL and MI delegates (pledged and super) are split 50/50, he would need 48 more superdelegates (8% of a pool of 263)

If FL and MI aren't counted at all, he would need 20 more superdeletages (9.8% of a 'pool' of 208)

My preferred scenario (borrowed from a poster on another blog) is this:

MI and FL *pledged* delegates are seated as won by Clinton with the balance for Obama (giving him MI 55, FL 80). But the 50 *super* delegates from those two states are NOT counted. To clinch under this scenario would require 2183 delegates, and Obama would need 79 more of the remaining superdelegates (30% of a 'pool' of 263).

Yes, this proposal would require him to do more than he would under any of the more reasonable scenarios. He would, however, be just 2 delegates short of the ‘magic number’ (1783.5 pledged delegates) at the end of the contests and I'm confident he could meet the goal, just as he will be able to meet the 41% goal in the ‘worst case' (for him) scenario.

Seating the pledged delegates but not the super delegates from MI and FL, would have a number of advantages: 1) honoring, more or less, the voice of the voters of the two states; 2) penalizing the SDs, at least some of whom contributed to this mess as much as anyone; and 3) leading to the quite "delicious" (sarcasm) sight of Clinton immediately pivoting and start to champion the Need and Right for the "undemocratic elite" to be heard! (I wonder if there is a Zimbabwian parallel?)

Since Obama can, I'm confident, achieve any of the necessary percentages of SDs after the contests are over (8% up to 41%), that means the ONLY importance of the May 31st decision re: FL and MI is going to be the message DNC wants to send regarding the 'disobedience' of those two states and the impact any decision will have on upcoming election, in which the states' votes will be needed. Only if it is badly mis-managed, so as to allow Clinton to further embarrass us (women and all Democrats) with lawsuits and similar insanities will it make any difference at all.

Math: Majority of pledged delegates, with and without FL and MI

Basic premise:  If Obama gets the majority of the pledged delegates (in addition to the other, less official measurements in his favor such as # of states and popular votes), the remaining SDs will have very good reason to endorse him (and no good reason not to).  In fact, some Clinton SDs may well decide they have good reason to switch.  

Below is a recap of the delegates won to date, the number needed for a majority of pledged (both with and without MI and FL) and a "worst case" estimate of outcomes of the upcoming primaries and the 'negotiation' over MI and FL.  If the estimates are reasonable and the math is correct, I think it's safe to say that Obama WILL have the majority of pledged delegates, whether or not MI and FL are included.

Majority (1/2 plus 1) of pledged delegates:
Without FL and MI:   1627   (total pledged 3253)
With FL and MI:  1785    (total pledged 3569)

Current pledged delegates (per MSNBC 5/8/08) 
Clinton 1426   Obama 1590

"Worst case" estimates of upcoming primaries:
WV:  Clinton 65%, Obama 35% = C 19 del, O 9 del
KY:  Clinton 65%, Obama 35% = C 33, O 18
OR:  Clinton 45%, Obama 55% =  C 25, O 27
As of May 20th, therefore, Obama would have 1644 delegates, more than 1627: the majority of pledged delegates without FL & MI   (Clinton would have 1503)

PR:  Clinton 65%, Obama 35% = C 36, O 19
MT:  Clinton 45 %, Obama 55% = C 7, O 9
SD:  Clinton 45%, Obama 55% = C 6, O 9
At the end of the primaries, Obama would have 1681 delegates.  (Clinton would have 1552)

Then Clinton gets what she wants re: MI and FL (I think this is correct?)
MI:  Clinton 77 delegates, Obama 51 delegates
FL:  Clinton 104 delegates, Obama 84 delegates
With these additions, Obama would then have 1816 delegates, or more than 1785, the majority of pledged delegates WITH FL and MI.  (Clinton would have 1733)

Now,  to actually clinch the nomination, counting MI and FL, 2209 total delegates would be needed  (1/2 + 1 of  4417).  Currently, Clinton has 273.5 and Obama has 262.super delegates.
Clinton: 1733 pledged estimate + 273.5 SDs = 2006.5 =
202.5 more SDs needed.
Obama:  1785 pledged + 262 SDs =  2047 =  162 more SDs needed.

There are currently a total of 309 uncommitted SDs (if  you includie the ones from MI and FL), and Clinton would need 65% of these and Obama would need 52%.  But -- to the extent that Obama does better than projected in any of the upcoming primaries (e.g. if WV went 60/40 for Clinton instead of 65/35), then the number of SDs Obama needs would decrease and the number of SDs Clinton needs would increase. 

So at what point can you say that there IS a nominee?

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