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Week of April 20, 2008 - April 26, 2008

The Votemaster's McCain v. Clinton/Obama maps


Numbers, numbers, who’s got the numbers?  The Votemaster, that's who.  I confess to finding the digested information at the widely-discredited DailyKos.com, but they jive with my rough addition of the Votemaster's maps.  And the Votemaster doesn't lie.  I think.

Electoral-vote.com maintains daily maps showing general election matchups by state, rated by strong, weak and slight support for the Democratic ticket.  Apparently Hillary's folks have been touting these numbers as proof that Obama loses to McCain in the general. 

Clinton's version of E-V’s April 23rd maps:

Clinton v McCain:
McCain: 239
Clinton: 289
Ties: 10

Obama v McCain:
McCain: 254
Obama: 269
Ties: 15

E-V’s rated breakdown for the same map:

                        Obama  Clinton

Strong Dem         67        74
Weak Dem         144        98
Barely Dem         58     117
Tied                    15      10
Barely GOP         76      13
Weak GOP          44      89
Strong GOP       134     137

Basically, the Clinton camp provides us with unweighted totals.  But Clinton doesn’t look nearly as great when you break the numbers down.  She does indeed have more strong Democratic support.  But if you add strong and weak, it’s 172 Clinton vs. 211 Obama.  Worse, 117 of Clinton's electors are in barely-Dem states, vs. 58 for Obama.  

Now, I know DailyKos has fallen hopelessly in love with Obama, but the Votemaster's numbers seem to reflect the range of current polls reported on TPM, and you can add up the electors yourself if you think Kos is lying. 

Hit 'recommend' if you find this interesting, and then hack away at will.  I know my avatar is ugly, but I'm not.  Really.

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eliyah

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