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More false premises re lending



The administration this week announced its program to help banks clear their balance sheets of so-called "toxic assets," bad investments that have tied up their capital and made it difficult for them to lend money.

Under the plan, the administration and private investors would take over up to $1 trillion in sour mortgage securities from banks. The goal is to free up money banks could then use for loans to businesses and consumers.  -- AP via Yahoo

The capital is not tied up, it's invested whether well or poorly.  The banks also have a fair amount of cash which they can lend out if they are solvent.   Goldman Sachs is reported to have $100B cash ready to "spend".  Others probably have less, but they do have TARP funds and they should have been busy on their own already improving their positions.

And let's note "sour mortgage securities" which is a rather generous umbrella, to put it politely.

The only way banks can improve their situation here is by getting people to pay them much more than the assets are worth as valued by the banks now.  Since the banks are generally over-valuing rather than under-valuing their own assets (as far as I can figure, data appreciated whether pro or con) selling off their toxic assets fairly will result in a loss not a gain.  That will raise some cash but will not help the balance sheet.

Some would suggest that banks are afraid to make new loans because of the uncertainty of the value of existing "assets".  The only way this makes sense is if the banks expect their assets to devalue naturally over time faster than their current models would have it, thus putting them in a squeeze should depositors start a run on the bank and put them under regulatory limits.  

Price discovery is a two-edged sword -- it could help or hurt a given asset, and thus the bank which holds the asset.  But inflating prices strikes me as criminal, and that's what the Geithner plan does, even absent outright scams.

The Geithner plan almost makes sense if the FDIC is selling/pricing assets it holds, such as after it takes over a bank.  Then the FDIC should try to get a high (inflated) price.  And then the FDIC would be lending money to asset purchasers to pay to the FDIC as part of the plan (one part private, one part public, and up to 10 parts loan).  The "loan" would be a bookkeeping trick, no money would go the buyer but the buyer would take on an obligation to pay interest and principal to the FDIC unless the asset tanked seriously.  And the public part would be the Feds putting their one part into the FDIC.

Mixing up price discovery with price inflation is just a bad idea.  It's an attempt to shift the burden from bank management, banks stock holders, and bank bond holders.  Why should we even think about doing this??




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edscan? that you?

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But inflating prices strikes me as criminal, and that's what the Geithner plan does, even absent outright scams.

What can we do eds?

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If a "bank" needs an intervention, we can make the management and equity holders (stocks and bonds etc) pay the piper, aka take haircuts. Then we can sell off assets at inflated prices as long as the FDIC isn't providing too much profit margin to buyers.

If a "bank" doesn't need an intervention now but has assets over which there is a big difference in pricing opinion (whether real value differences or plain old Obscurity By Complications) then it can either hold the asset until circumstances change or it can take a big haircut while continuing to operate. That will give it more cash but reduce its reserves, so it won't be able to lend out as much money and it won't be as profitable as a bank with sound assets. This is more or less as it should be in the large view even if it hurts the bank and its equity investors.

As for what we little folks can do, we can continue to try to speak truth to power or otherwise pursue our other wise or foolish agendas and interests.

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There have been several statements by bank CEOs that they are lending more than they have in the past.

Perhaps the "toxic assets" aren't on the banks' balance sheets. They may be in various off balance sheet vehicles that are part of the securitization market. Foreign banks are big participants in setting these up.

For an example of off balance sheet securitizatioin see Financial Conduits: A $700 billion time bomb?

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If they are not on the balance sheet, then how do they have a negative impact on lending ability etc?

"financial vehicles allowing billions of dollars to pass through them—but that do not release information regarding their underlying assets—still exist"

that is sorta like the milk-flow without a cash cow. I didn't yet take the time to understand the article's "conduits" carefully but they look like another kind of what I'm calling assetization, treating rents as if assets.

What about the Interest Rate Swaps which stood at notional $460T last year with an estimated market value of $9T? That dwarfs $700B.

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From Remarks by Governor Susan M. Phillips (of the Federal Reserve).

Securitization removes the assets from the bank's books, but does not necessarily remove all of, or even most of, the risk of the underlying credits. Indeed, as is the case with some other derivatives, a securitization can effectively result in a leveraging of credit risk for the sponsoring bank. To understand how, let's review the basic securitization process. Typically, the sponsoring bank creates a bankruptcy-remote vehicle called a loan securitization conduit. The conduit purchases loans or other assets from its sponsor or, in some cases, originates the loans directly within the conduit. The loans in the conduit are financed by the issuance of multiple classes of asset-backed securities. The most senior securities of the conduit generally are rated double-A or triple-A by the rating agencies. To achieve these high credit ratings, the conduit must obtain credit enhancements on the underlying assets in the conduit. These credit enhancements generally are provided by --you guessed it--the bank sponsoring the securitization conduit. The credit enhancements can take several forms, including purchase of subordinated securities or provision of a standby letter of credit to the conduit, generally large enough to absorb most of the risk of the assets being securitized. In return for providing the credit enhancement and servicing the loans on the books of the conduit, the bank sponsor lays claim to all the residual spread between the return on the conduit's assets, net of any losses, and the conduit's costs, including the interest cost of the securities issued.

The credit enhancement itself is a derivative instrument; its value, and its risk, derives from the underlying pool of loans in the conduit. It is fairly typical for these credit enhancement positions retained by the bank to involve considerably more credit risk, per dollar of book value, than is implied by retaining the underlying assets on the balance sheet. For example, the enhancement could guarantee absorption of first losses on the entire pool, not just the proportional share of losses represented by the face value of the credit enhancement. If you were assessing a bank's credit risk, what level of capital would you require the bank to hold to protect against losses, for example, on a junior security? Or suppose the bank held a credit enhancement position for a conduit whose assets themselves consisted of credit enhancements, such as other subordinated securities? Or suppose the bank, rather than holding a first loss position, holds a second loss position, insuring the conduit against losses beyond a particular amount up to some other particular amount?

You can see that securitization can very easily involve quite complicated risk positions. As in the case of the emerging derivatives markets and the direct conduct of nontraditional financial activities, we wholeheartedly support the development of securitization by banks. The technique has permitted the "slicing and dicing" of the risks associated with a pool of assets in ways that permit each investor to choose positions that most closely reflect desired risk versus return. Market efficiency and liquidity are enhanced. But like derivatives and other complex activities, securitization makes my life as a supervisor, and yours, more difficult in one respect. Measurement of risk becomes more difficult.

So the assets don't appear on the banks books, except for the equity tranches or derivatives used to "enhance credit" of the commercial paper sold by the special purpose entity. The bank also gets fees for administering the SPE and probably also as the originator and servicer of the underlying debt instruments.

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"--you guessed it--"

That section looks like Reflexivity, whether per Soros or otherwise. That makes the process a shell game which is both gambling and crooked.

From your link (thanks): "In some ways, my job as a bank supervisor is not too dissimilar from your job as a market analyst. We both spend our time assessing risk versus return"

Or obscuring risk, as it happens. Also I see a role for Leverage in this too. Leverage usually applies to borrowing money to leverage one's own capital - you have $1 and you borrow $N so that if successful you get the different between profit and interest payments, and that can be a huge rate of return on your $1. It's risky in that if not as successful you still have to pay the interest (and principal eventually).

But this kind of leverage is leveraging risk itself, not leveraging fundamental purchasing power, and it's not soundly secured (not properly collateralized, for instance). It looks like Risk Squared or worse.


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It looks like there was a considerable temptation presented to the banks to originate lending and pass it on to other investors in such a way that it was off the banks balance sheet.

Ideally this would be done in such a way that the bank was no longer responsible for any aspect of credit risk. However, if the ratings agencies balked at making the whole thing AAA, then the banks would keep the higher risk shares and/or provide credit enhancement by writing some derivative contract. Again, these might be hedged by writing offsetting derivatives contractes with some other party, e.g. AIG, so that the bank was theoretically at risk. That is, until the offsetting derivatives proved to be shaky.

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"Ideally this would be done in such a way that the bank was no longer responsible for any aspect of credit risk."

That would turn the bank into a mere broker. Think mortgage broker.

It's clear to me how banks stayed in the game, they took a slice of the dice and took a high risk/uncertainty secondary position.

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As a concrete example -

On 12/31/08 the Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund had 30.1% or $15.274 billion of Commercial Paper & Other Corporate Obligations.

Of this, there was about $1.1 billion of Bank of America Corp. paper, which would appear on BofA's balance sheet.

There was also close to $1 billion of Ranger Funding Co. LLC, which is a conduit sponsored by Bank of America, but this would not appear on BofA's balance sheet.

Almost all of the above short-term commerical paper has matured by now.

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from your 1997 article:

"Beginning in January of next year, large multinational banks will be able to use their internal VaR models to determine their own capital requirements based on the peculiarities of their own portfolios, rather than be bound by the current capital requirements that do not take into account the diversification of risks within the market portfolio. Regulatory capital for market risk of trading activities at these banks will be set at a multiple of Value at Risk, calculated at the 99 percent confidence level, over a two week time horizon. "

I had not realized that self-monitoring preceded Donaldson at the SEC (circa 2004) when he let non-banks overleverage and self-monitor.

This excerpt nicely encapsulates a number of factors, for me.

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