Nate Silver on Public Perception
He notes a 6% drop in Obama's rating.
So what has Obama learned here? There have been three lessons, I think:Do they? Isn't "political capital" part of what you spend letting the weak ones take pot shots and thus further deplete their ammo? It's true that the CRs are so low they cannot go a whole lot further. But even if they go "all in", Obama not only has a much bigger stash but he doesn't have to play the hand. So far they are not ganging up from different directions at all well... because they've boxed themselves in for the most part with the House "NO" vote and clowns like McCain and Graham speaking for them in the Senate.
1. Republicans have nothing to lose. Public perceptions of Congressional Republicans are also significantly down from their already-low levels since the stimulus debate began. But, the Republicans will gladly torpedo their own brand if it means taking Obama down with them. They are dangerous to him, in the way that a gang of rabid velociraptors is dangerous to a T-Rex.
I don't agree that Congress was charged with selling it to the public. Congress got the job of writing it based on Obama's proposal and requested guidelines. But I agree that chaos in Congress can affect WH ratings to some extent. However, Congressional Demos are doing okay in their own ratings, so there is a disconnect in Silver's thinking here. If falling CD ratings are bring down Obama ratings, we need to see large falls in CD. We don't.
2. Obama has to do the heavy lifting himself. Support for the stimulus dwindled when the Congressional Demorcats, who are not much more popular than their Republican colleagues, were charged with the job of selling it. The more Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are the faces of the Democratic Party, the more Barack Obama's approval ratings will come to resemble those of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.
3. The benefits of "bipartisanship" are dubious. The public says they want bipartisanship, and a large majority of the public believes that Obama acted in a bipartisan fashion during the stimulus debate. And yet, his approval ratings fell significantly during this period.That doesn't even make sense to me. Silver usually strikes me as very sensible. ??
A simple explanation is that his rating drop reflects the effect of ongoing uncertainty in the face of dropping jobs figures, other economic indicators, and a total lack of confidence in Treasury after September 2008's debacle. I think Geithner needs to go away or have some kind of quasi-religious epiphany. I also think that Obama's shift to strong rhetoric from the weak Could-Squared approach has not yet filtered into the polls. Public perception desires a strong image in leadership.
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I'm sick of hearing talk of the ideal of 'bipartisanship'. I thought only hippies and people running for office talk this bs. The election's over.
The lesson from the Bush years is not to be bipartisan at all costs. It's to avoid having as the centerpiece of your agenda 'how to destroy my opposition'. The destruction of your opposition should be a nice byproduct of helping the country. And happily, it usually is. So focus on the good of the country, and let the Republicans stew.
February 8, 2009 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's focus is "what works" and "smart". Bipartisan is only a means to those ends. Apparently Obama, whether as a Senator or just with his ear to Congressional or public opinion, feels that people feel that the Bush years were too partisan.
February 10, 2009 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Poll drops when the CIC appears to not be in control. I think Obama's hitting the road this week will correct that problem.
Republicans have "nothing to lose" means they are moving towards a regional party status and an Obama victory is likely to cement Democratic control of Washington for a long time. Most Republicans politicians will bet the farm rather then concede a generation lost.
February 8, 2009 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Congressional Demos are clearly up while Repos are clearly down and Obama is basically level!
So his road trip didn't help him at all, at least not yet. But the appearance that Congress is doing something over the stupid opposition of the Repos seems to be clearly helping the Demos.
February 14, 2009 12:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
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Polls, polls, polls . . .
About your comment here Eds...
To me it makes more sense that there would be a 6% drop after the high of the post-inauguration bounce... Meaning, as Nate Silver has said so many time in his own blog, it's too early to tell what the numbers mean.
You may wish to read a more thorough comment that I made Saturday in Daniel's Cafe thread in reference to this same point that Nate Silver had posted at his blog.
~OGD~
February 9, 2009 12:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Curious that I didn't notice that other blog, thanks.
February 9, 2009 4:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
eds - where did you get your information when you state that "Congressional Demos are doing okay in their own ratings"? I've read nothing but how unpopular both the democrats and republican are in congress. Rasmussen reported in early February that only 12% think Congress is doing a good job and 54% say it's doing a poor job. With the democrats in control, I wouldn't say that the "Demos are doing okay in their own ratings".
What are you reading that I don't know about?!
February 9, 2009 1:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
As linked above, see the Trendline options for Leadership and Congress part way down the page: http://dailykos.com/weeklytrends
I had thought I'd seen Pelosi level, but in fact she has fallen slightly since the inauguration (hovering just above neutral). However that slight fall doesn't seem enough to rationalize Obama's drop, rather they are tracking each other along with other figures. The Repos seem to be down sharper than the Demos in all categories.
February 9, 2009 4:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the link!
But a 38% favorable rating, better than I thought and certainly better than the Republican members of Congress, isn't "okay". It's like comparing who's better or more okay, The Wicked Witch of the West or Darth Vader? (Yes, I'm being silly.) But the point is that our Congress of both parties has a lot of work to do in order to earn acceptable ratings. They're both quite dismal.
February 9, 2009 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pelosi is at neutral, with about the same favorable as unfavorable rating (with many uncertain), and she's not dropping like a stone. That's the sense of "okay". 'okay' not= 'great'!
The question Silver raised was whether she and others were pulling Obama down. My point is that there isn't any clear evidence of this.
February 9, 2009 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dems are now up at that site, and Repos down further!
February 16, 2009 3:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Public perception of the string of criminals he nominated to cabinet positions has not caught up to Obama's ratings yet, as hasn't the exposure of the details of the porkulus bill he supports.
Already his handlers are corroborating with all the news actors to make Pelosi the heavy for the pork bill in daily conference calls.
His ratings are tanking, and will tank to a nadir with convenient timing. Timing is gonna be perfect for a '94 remake in the midterms.
February 9, 2009 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Keep dreaming the dream!
February 9, 2009 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
"His ratings are tanking . . ."
Yeah, sure thing!
February 9, 2009 2:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah Toad, from a high of 80 down to a present 60.
Not bad in terms of real numbers, but look at the trend in terms of time. He'll be beating Bush's and Carter's records and in record time!!!!
February 9, 2009 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is this 80 60 talk?
http://dailykos.com/weeklytrends see the Trendline for Obama.
February 9, 2009 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
No doubt spriche is a Rasmussen man.
February 9, 2009 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
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(s)pric(he)???
You mean the doofus that fell into the... The "TPM Two-Holer" at the Café ???
~OGD~
February 9, 2009 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
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Really . . .
He actually DID fall in the pile at The "TPM Two-Holer" at the Café...
~OGD~
February 9, 2009 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Glad to see you're maintaining the ol' privy!
February 10, 2009 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink