As we look about the business landscape
we find that many older, former blue-chip, firms are on the brink of financial
collapse. Given the shrinkage of credit, many are asking if these firms have
enough cash to survive a major recession. GM has been forced into seeking
Federal Loans and GE has already started marketing commercial paper to the Fed.
Why are these firms so cash poor that they have to go to extremes to survive?
I blame the Wall Street analysts
and the MBA programs of America.
In the last 40 years there has been a growing emphasis on distributing cash to
share-holders at the expense of a company's future financial health. About
eight years ago I spoke with the management of a firm which had recently moved
from listing on the American Stock Exchange to listing on the New York Stock
Exchange. Management was flabbergasted when the stock analysts assigned to
their firm said that they could not recommend buying the company's stock
because they didn't owe enough money. The company's management had always
pursued a program of internal financing. They believed that low leverage
(borrowing) ratios meant lower costs to share holders and safety in the event
of an economic turn-down. The analysts insisted that the company should do more
borrowing and hand the excess cash over to the shareholders.
Almost all publicly traded
companies are faced with this dilemma: Do they look to the long term financial
health of the company or do we put emphasis on maximizing short-term shareholder
value? The fact is that that the two may be mutually exclusive. High cash
distributions may enhance short-term shareholder value while undermining long
term financial heath. It is similar to the kick an addict gets from cocaine. It
feels good every time the addict gets a hit. However, the addict's long-term physical
health is at risk.
As a product of several of America's
business schools I am well aware of the financial analyses that are being
taught. I also understand the economic theory underlying the analytic thought
processes. The problem lies in the fact that most of the analysts are working
from a strictly academic angle. Most have never worked outside of the financial
sector and have no notion of how a firm producing real as opposed to financial
worth operates. The crux of the problem is that they treat all wealth creation
as if it were financial wealth. This leads to a casino mentality where the
emphasis is on short-term results. We end up in a world where there are no
investors. All we end up with is traders. If you don't believe this, just look
at the turn-over ratios of some of our largest pension plans. The ratios often
indicate that the portfolios are being completely liquidated and repurchased
more than once every year. This is not investing. It is gambling masquerading
as an investment strategy.
If we want America's firms
to survive, we need to break this gambling mentality. We need to restructure
the nature of business education. We need to realize that risk is more than the
financial analysts' notion of price variability. They believe that
diversification will get rid of the specific risk of bankruptcy. What they fail
to recognize is that the emphasis on leverage increases the bankruptcy risk of
all firms. If all firms are under increased bankruptcy risk then specific risk
becomes market risk and it is impossible to diversify it away.
"I blame the Wall Street analysts and the MBA programs of America. In the last 40 years there has been a growing emphasis on distributing cash to share-holders at the expense of a company's future financial health."
I think that there has been a conspiracy to get more money into management's pocket by getting idiots (paid off idiots) to sit on the board and at the same time remove decisions from the shareholders per legislation. It is harder and harder for shareholders to maintain suits against the corp.
This is all reflected in the 'propaganda' mills called MBA Degree machines.
What is your recommendation for a sensible, responsible debt/equity ratio for -- oh, pick one; let's say -- an industrial products company with a history of growing at double the rate of the general economy?
How did you arrive at your choice of that particular ratio?
There is no one sensible debt /equity ratio. It should be determined more by how sensitive the ability to pay obligations is to changes in sales. It has been a while since I saw it published, perhaps 3 years or more, but at one time there was a liquidity ratio that specifically measured this.I don't mean fixed charge coverage or times interest earned. I need to do some research. However, I believe that a sensitivity measure is more appropriate than a set debt/ equity ratio. We have become so concerned with CAPM that we forget that Eli Schwartz demonstrated that taking all debt into account partially negates CAPM.
"I blame the Wall Street analysts and the MBA programs of America. In the last 40 years there has been a growing emphasis on distributing cash to share-holders at the expense of a company's future financial health."
I think that there has been a conspiracy to get more money into management's pocket by getting idiots (paid off idiots) to sit on the board and at the same time remove decisions from the shareholders per legislation. It is harder and harder for shareholders to maintain suits against the corp.
This is all reflected in the 'propaganda' mills called MBA Degree machines.
February 1, 2009 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a poll at that CNBC link...
"Is President Obama unfairly bashing Wall Street?
Yes
No"
Hit it!
February 2, 2009 2:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, econmavin ---
What is your recommendation for a sensible, responsible debt/equity ratio for -- oh, pick one; let's say -- an industrial products company with a history of growing at double the rate of the general economy?
How did you arrive at your choice of that particular ratio?
February 2, 2009 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is no one sensible debt /equity ratio. It should be determined more by how sensitive the ability to pay obligations is to changes in sales. It has been a while since I saw it published, perhaps 3 years or more, but at one time there was a liquidity ratio that specifically measured this.I don't mean fixed charge coverage or times interest earned. I need to do some research. However, I believe that a sensitivity measure is more appropriate than a set debt/ equity ratio. We have become so concerned with CAPM that we forget that Eli Schwartz demonstrated that taking all debt into account partially negates CAPM.
February 16, 2009 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink