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Week of February 1, 2009 - February 7, 2009

WHY THOSE WHO CAN ARE NOT SPENDING


Recently, my wife and I found out that we could reduce our mortgage and second mortgage interest rates substantially by refinancing and combining the two loans. This process reduced our monthly payments by over $300 and left us with substantially the same outstanding balance. The generation of credit reports for the mortgage triggered automatic reporting to our various credit card companies. One company cut our credit limit in half because we weren't using all of it. Another credit company cut our credit limit for two reasons: one was that we used too much of the credit available on the first card. The other reason was that they didn't like the bank from which we obtained our new mortgage.

The fact is that we substantially reduced our monthly cash outflow. This means that in the event of something going wrong with either my wife's or my income our chances of continuing to pay our bills has been significantly increased. In their infinite wisdom, however, these idiots reduced our credit limits. This has resulted in our eliminating our plans for a winter vacation because we do not want to come closer to our still available credit limits and thereby reduce our future credit worthiness.

On top of all of this, the banks that reduced our limits were on the list of banks which received outrageous amounts of bailout money. This is the money that was intended to increase bank's willingness to lend. Not only did it not increase bank lending, it appears that the banks have reduced their lending despite their gorging themselves at the public trough.

So, because the banks are acting like idiots, people like my wife and I who are willing and able to spend have been forced to cut back. Perhaps the Swedish answer of nationalizing the banks is the only way out of this mess. We should also be looking at the potential for fraud charges against the banking executives who took the money under false pretenses.

DO WE DESERVE THIS?


Someone once said that we get the government we deserve.  My problem is that I cannot fathom what grievous harm we've done to the world to get the congress we have today. We have both Republicans and Democrats screaming that we have a spending program instead of a recovery program on the table. My guess is that all of them failed their Introductory Economics course or they decided that nothing in the field developed after 1899 has any relevance.  Our illustrious elected leaders seem to forget that spending is economic stimulus. When Republicans complain that the New Deal took too long and we needed WWII to get out of the depression, they are ignoring the fact that it was the stimulus spending for WWII that finally ended the depression. Even FDR had a tough time spending enough to end the disaster. Now Republicans and some conservative democrats are complaining that President Obama is spending too much. These naysayers are going to end up extending the problem through under spending.

I can understand why the Republicans might want to do this. They believe that they can win the mid-term congressional elections if they make sure that a recovery doesn't take place. They are willing to see the country go down the tubes in order to gain an electoral victory in 2011. They bring out the old saw of giving money to business to get the economy moving. They believe in something called "Say's Law" which states that supply creates its own demand. The problem is that nobody in his/her right mind is going to produce goods in the absence of demand. Without an increase in demand, reducing the cost of labor merely increases business profits without increasing employment.

It is time to get tough and call the obstructionists to the carpet. I would use their old saw and state that they are threatening the security of the United States. I would not hesitate to call them traitors who are more interested in lining the pockets of the internationalist multi-national corporations than they are in the security of America. Progressives have, for too long, been too timid in their pursuit of their goals. They have tried to appeal to the mind. It is now time to use the tactics of the conservatives and start appealing to the gut. In 1932 the USA could have gone the way of Germany and Italy or the way of Russia. We found a third way through FDR and the new deal. If the conservative have their way, I'm afraid that our fate will be to resemble Mussolini's Italy.

The Crisis in Non-Financial Companies


As we look about the business landscape we find that many older, former blue-chip, firms are on the brink of financial collapse. Given the shrinkage of credit, many are asking if these firms have enough cash to survive a major recession. GM has been forced into seeking Federal Loans and GE has already started marketing commercial paper to the Fed. Why are these firms so cash poor that they have to go to extremes to survive?

 

I blame the Wall Street analysts and the MBA programs of America. In the last 40 years there has been a growing emphasis on distributing cash to share-holders at the expense of a company's future financial health. About eight years ago I spoke with the management of a firm which had recently moved from listing on the American Stock Exchange to listing on the New York Stock Exchange. Management was flabbergasted when the stock analysts assigned to their firm said that they could not recommend buying the company's stock because they didn't owe enough money. The company's management had always pursued a program of internal financing. They believed that low leverage (borrowing) ratios meant lower costs to share holders and safety in the event of an economic turn-down. The analysts insisted that the company should do more borrowing and hand the excess cash over to the shareholders.

 

Almost all publicly traded companies are faced with this dilemma: Do they look to the long term financial health of the company or do we put emphasis on maximizing short-term shareholder value? The fact is that that the two may be mutually exclusive. High cash distributions may enhance short-term shareholder value while undermining long term financial heath. It is similar to the kick an addict gets from cocaine. It feels good every time the addict gets a hit. However, the addict's long-term physical health is at risk.

 

As a product of several of America's business schools I am well aware of the financial analyses that are being taught. I also understand the economic theory underlying the analytic thought processes. The problem lies in the fact that most of the analysts are working from a strictly academic angle. Most have never worked outside of the financial sector and have no notion of how a firm producing real as opposed to financial worth operates. The crux of the problem is that they treat all wealth creation as if it were financial wealth. This leads to a casino mentality where the emphasis is on short-term results. We end up in a world where there are no investors. All we end up with is traders. If you don't believe this, just look at the turn-over ratios of some of our largest pension plans. The ratios often indicate that the portfolios are being completely liquidated and repurchased more than once every year. This is not investing. It is gambling masquerading as an investment strategy.

 

If we want America's firms to survive, we need to break this gambling mentality. We need to restructure the nature of business education. We need to realize that risk is more than the financial analysts' notion of price variability. They believe that diversification will get rid of the specific risk of bankruptcy. What they fail to recognize is that the emphasis on leverage increases the bankruptcy risk of all firms. If all firms are under increased bankruptcy risk then specific risk becomes market risk and it is impossible to diversify it away.

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econmavin

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Former Corporate Treasurer in multinational corporation. Currently teaching Economics and Finance at the college level. BS, MA, MBA

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