Stimulus, Part Deux: Getting Ahead Of The Curve
During the debate over the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, many people here and elsewhere criticized President Obama's stimulus as being too small.
I contended that (1) the White House had to know that the stim pack, by itself, would not make up for the loss of demand we're expecting in the economy, (2) a larger stimulus package would not have made it through the first time, and (3) there would likely be at least one more stimulus proposal, for at least as much as the first, coming this year.
Well, a consensus is developing that there will need to be another stimulus package. Here's some particularly sobering stuff from the Washington Post article on the subject (emphases mine):
The stimulus package was designed to "save or create" 3.5 million jobs, according to the administration. But the nation has already lost 4.4 million jobs since the start of the recession.
That's simple math, underscored by the announcement of an 8.1% unemployment rate. But even that number is probably understating the problem. I consider underemployment to be a first cousin of unemployment, and you can't really begin to understand just how bad things are until you account for the millions of underemployed workers.
But even the current job-loss figures mask the degree of pain among American workers. A broader measure, which includes people who want a job and have given up looking and those working part time but who want full-time work, rose nearly one percentage point, to 14.8 percent.
So, let's put that in perspective. Of every 40 adults you see, 3 are underemployed, and another 3 are completely unemployed.
"It's premature to say we need another stimulus, but the economy is performing much worse than when [the law] was signed, and the odds are increasing that we'll need a bigger policy response," said Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com, who has advised Democratic lawmakers. "What we've learned is policy has been a step behind this whole downturn. It's important to get a step ahead."
I admit, I don't understand how another stimulus could be premature, given the subsequent statements Zandi makes. But I am proceeding on the idea that at least one more stimulus package is needed.
This appears to be a non-partisan conclusion. And Congress should be scared enough by the recent Department of Labor report that they should not need nearly as much prodding on a reasonable stimulus as they did earlier.
So, with that in mind, I want to start a discussion. Please contribute your thoughts on these two questions:
- How big should the next stimulus be?
- What should it focus on? (Include all major areas, percentages on each, etc.)
I think Zandi has it absolutely right. I think the discussion in general was behind the curve on the last stimulus. And I know TPM'ers don't like to be behind on anything. :-)












I'll start:
(1) I'd like to see the next stimulus start at around $1.5 trillion. Combined with the $800B from the last one, and various stimulative ideas in the omnibus spending bill and in the next year's budget, I think that ought to help us at least catch up to the rate of employment decay.
(2) This one's tricky. I think the next stimulus is where Obama will have to put his foot down on pet projects. NO EARMARKS. Period.
I'd like to see a lot of the infrastructure projects that got cut out of the last stimulus re-funded. I'm also for funding more education-related issues - but that money must go directly to either funding current positions or creating new positions THAT CAN BE FILLED within 6-12 months of *passage* of Stimulus II.
March 7, 2009 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
I have little to offer except, a recommend! Let's move this up!
Thank you for sharing your expertise and analysis with us, Boyd. :)
March 7, 2009 9:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just watch the New Prez keep on keepin' on. That was not the 'last' stimulus. part two starts next week after the Senate plays some parliamentary games.
After the road construction starts and figures demonstrate that people are being hired--since traffic delays will be monumental it will be hard to miss--the electorate will call for more stimulus.
As always, we need some luck. A little progress. And the Prez keeps making appearances, I swear he is the best propagandist our party has seen in sixty years. Best salesman we could have had. If he cannot sell this, no one can.
In answer to your question: yes we need more stimulus, more government spending.
March 7, 2009 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Before I can (or want to) cite what you request, I am waiting for critical data on the quality of the oversight on current expenditures. And, if there is malfeasance, what are the consequences to the principals involved and how will they be implemented, etc. Still so much to 'know' before I can make informed projections.....
what works, what doesn't as to programs and projects targeted.
That said, good post and rec'd. Boyd, always make me 'think' and engage me....thanks.
March 7, 2009 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
How big? Big as we can get. What to spend it on? Just put people without jobs back to work.
March 7, 2009 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I understand the sentiment completely. :-)
That said, though, I think one of the big features of the first stimulus is that it targets multiple areas.
I think most of this next one has to go directly to creating employment demand, but there are other needs we have, too.
March 7, 2009 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink