It is not too early to begin handicapping the players likely to be involved in the 2010 congressional race that will impact Marin and most of Sonoma counties if incumbent Lynn Woolsey were to decide to retire.

 

The 6th District seat has been occupied for the past 18 years by Woolsey, the veteran Democratic legislator from Petaluma who has proven to be very durable despite rumblings in some quarters about her uncompromising liberalism.

When Barbara Boxer surrendered the seat in 1992 to run for the U.S. Senate, the former welfare mom put her hat in the ring and bested eight opponents - all but one male and all but one from Marin - getting 26 percent of the vote. Woolsey went on to beat Marin's Republican Assemblyman Bill Filante, who even before his diagnosis with a brain tumor, was in for an uphill battle in this overwhelmingly Democratic district.

Since then, she has faced mostly token opposition, with the only real challenge coming from within her own party when then-Assemblyman Joe Nation tried to oust her in 2006. He was soundly beaten.

Now the vice chair of the House Progressive Caucus and one of only 133 members to oppose the Iraq invasion, Woolsey seems to fit the desires of her constituency like a glove and has more than once shown an inner mettle, including her arrest in April with four other representatives protesting the blocking of aid to victims of the Darfur atrocities.

Open congressional seats are a rarity, usually attracting numerous contenders.

While there is no heir-apparent several names immediately pop up.

The most obvious is Jared Huffman, the second-term Assemblyman from San Rafael, who would be established as an early frontrunner unless he opted to remain in the Assembly until 2012 when he could run for the State Senate.

But state Sen. Mark Leno, whose district overlaps with Huffman's, could decide to run for re-election or have jumped into what will be a crowded race for mayor of San Francisco after Gavin Newsom's departure. Leno has not yet signaled his intentions.

Huffman's strongest opposition could come from Sonoma County where Petaluma Mayor Pam Torliatt came within 3,000 votes of beating him in the 2006 Democratic primary for the Assembly.

But these numbers must be measured against the fact that, as the sole Sonoma entry, she only carried it by 52 percent, with Huffman, then an unfamiliar face north of Marin, scoring an impressive second-place finish there and besting his four Marin opponents by more than their combined vote total.

Sonoma, with its 2-to-1 registered-voter advantage and growing population, will play a decisive role and an endorsement by Woolsey, who enjoys widespread popularity notwithstanding some criticism that she has not been effective enough, would have to be considered a coveted prize.

Other candidates could emerge from the Marin Board of Supervisors where Susan Adams is known to have ambitions. Supervisor Charles McGlashan also might be interested.

It is almost certainly a Democratic seat.

But after Boxer and Woolsey, is it a "woman's" seat? Place your bets now.