One Democratic consultant not affiliated with either candidate said that Sestak's silence regarding Specter's raucous town hall could undermine that argument, however.

"I think Sestak could've shown he is putting party ahead of politics by somehow coming to Specter's defense," said the source who has worked extensively in the state. "It seemed like a good opportunity to reinforce the Sestak message that he's for party and principle ahead of personal gain."

Dear Ds4,

I am a public servant. I work for the people of my District, and after next year's election look forward to working for the people of Pennsylvania.

I cherish Town Halls, I really do -- it's the fullest expression of our democracy at work. I hosted a Town Hall on health care reform in my District the day after the Congressional recess began, and another last night in Philadelphia.

This upcoming election really is about change ... about putting principle over politics and a reminder that public service is a noble cause ... in the service of others.

I disagree with Arlen Specter's statement at his Lebanon, PA Town Hall on health care reform, when he said "I could be somewhere else. I don't get any extra pay. I don't have any requirement to be here".

We do have a responsibility "to be here" ... for others, not ourselves, which is why Pennsylvania needs a change. Please support that change.

Please contribute now: Contribute

Warmly,

Joe Sestak

P.S. Please continue to spread the word about our growing campaign by forwarding this e-mail onto your family and friends asking them to get involved by making a contribution to bring needed change to Pennsylvania.

Weak sauce.

According to Rasmussen, "Among voters who favor the congressional health care plan, Specter leads 55% to 26%. However, among those who oppose the plan, Sestak leads 61% to 25%." It's unclear how this divide emerged, but since support for reform among Democrats in the state is around 70 percent, don't be surprised if you see both candidates try to stake out the reformer position on health care.

* Black Vote: Roughly 11 percent of Pennsylvanians are African-Americans but blacks are a larger and more influential segment of the vote in a Democratic primary. With Philadelphia and its suburbs one of the crucial battleground between Specter and Sestak, whoever is able to make a more compelling case to black voters living in the city should have a leg up. Specter's past affiliation with the GOP won't be helpful to him but the prominent support of the nation's first black president should go along way to countering those negative effects. Sestak, as a Member of Congress, has spent little time courting the black community and must move quickly on that front.

I think that's unfair. The black vote isn't lock step in line with Obama. They like Obama --they like him a lot-- but that doesn't mean they'll follow his every bidding where voting for other politicians are concerned. Frankly assuming otherwise strikes me as more than a little condescending. And I'm not totally convinced that President Obama really wants Specter to win. Officially he does but really? I haven't seen the White House break its back to promote Arlen Specter's campaign. 

Beyond that though, why should blacks trust Arlen Specter? I mean if we're going to stand by crude, overarching logic then blacks aren't likely to vote for an ex-Republican recently turned Democrat who can't really be trusted on a whole bunch of issues that affect the black community.

I think the Cilizza got his migration patterns wrong here. There is a racial element involved. Blacks are more likely to vote for a trustworthy democrat if he's black but there's no such viable candidate between Specter and Sestak thus it's a bit harder to predict which way the black community will go.

Meanwhile, Sestak versus Toomey is much closer with Toomey leading Sestak 39% to 35%. Kleefield notes that a big factor in those results is that Toomey and Sestak both could earn considerably more name recognition. So on the nominate-who-could-win argument --which I don't like-- perhaps Sestak would be the right choice.

To make matters worse, in the Specter-Sestak matchup Specter leads Sestak 55% to 23%. Sestak probably doesn't have a lot of name recognition there either but that's still a huge margin to fill.

Over all, I think things don't look good for Sestak or Specter. Sestak seems unlikely to beat Specter in the primary and Specter seems increasingly unlikely to beat Toomey in the general election. Toomey must be pretty happy.

I want to also note that Sestak's name recognition problem is very serious. A few days ago I met a girl from rural Pennsylvania, a Democrat, who hadn't heard of Sestak. She's the exact kind of voter that Sestak needs and that she had never heard of him is a big problem.

UPDATE: Nate Silver writes: Ultimately, I'd still rate either Democrat as about a 2:1 favorite over Toomey, this poll not withstanding. But Pennsylvania will certainly be moving up in next month's Senate race rankings.