This morning Chris Cilizza had a run-down of the Sestak-Specter Pennsylvania primary. Most of his points were sound with this exception:

* Black Vote: Roughly 11 percent of Pennsylvanians are African-Americans but blacks are a larger and more influential segment of the vote in a Democratic primary. With Philadelphia and its suburbs one of the crucial battleground between Specter and Sestak, whoever is able to make a more compelling case to black voters living in the city should have a leg up. Specter's past affiliation with the GOP won't be helpful to him but the prominent support of the nation's first black president should go along way to countering those negative effects. Sestak, as a Member of Congress, has spent little time courting the black community and must move quickly on that front.

I think that's unfair. The black vote isn't lock step in line with Obama. They like Obama --they like him a lot-- but that doesn't mean they'll follow his every bidding where voting for other politicians are concerned. Frankly assuming otherwise strikes me as more than a little condescending. And I'm not totally convinced that President Obama really wants Specter to win. Officially he does but really? I haven't seen the White House break its back to promote Arlen Specter's campaign. 

Beyond that though, why should blacks trust Arlen Specter? I mean if we're going to stand by crude, overarching logic then blacks aren't likely to vote for an ex-Republican recently turned Democrat who can't really be trusted on a whole bunch of issues that affect the black community.

I think the Cilizza got his migration patterns wrong here. There is a racial element involved. Blacks are more likely to vote for a trustworthy democrat if he's black but there's no such viable candidate between Specter and Sestak thus it's a bit harder to predict which way the black community will go.