Where will the Superdelegates go?
Well, clearly this is going to be decided by superdelegates. Obama, at
this point, is the prohibitive favorite to win the pledged delegates
based on the favorability of the calendar, but the best case scenario
he could hope for is 3/5, which won't be nearly enough to get him over
the hump. So what do you think? Where will the superdelegates break?
My guess is that the number one priority for them will be electability,
so it's time to start making that argument. For me it's Obama. He'll be
competitive in purple states in a way she simply can't be. Her most
important wins (Cali, NY, Mass, NJ, NH, etc...) are all states that he
can win easily in a general election against McCain. On the other hand,
his biggest wins (Colorado, Missouri, Georgia, Iowa) have come in
states where she would not be competitive, but he may be. Naturally,
there are of course going to be exceptions (Nevada for instance), but
this seems to be the trend. I'm not saying he'd win in Kansas or
Georgia, but he'd be competitive which is more than we could hope for
from her.
Finally, there is of course the polling data. While admittedly, polls
have been spotty, the bulk of them show Obama matching up better
against McCain than Hillary, though by only a small margin (+2 to 6
points). It's hard to refute the notion that he fairs better against
Independents (a strong point for McCain) and even some Republicans, who
are less than enamored with their presumptive candidate.
One other important point is that Superdelegates will be under a lot of
pressure to go with the candidate who has the most pledged delegates to
avoid the feeling that the choice was taken away from the voters. As I
mentioned earlier, given the calendar at this point, Obama has to be
the favorite to walk into Denver with the most pledged delegates.
At this point, I have to believe that the Superdelegates will go for
Obama, but that familiarity and sense of entitlement and establishment
will be hard to overcome. Party insiders are far less likely to fall in
love and be swept away by an insurgent candidate.
Tell me what you think; I'll post this as a blog entry if anyone wants to discuss this more.
