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The Great American Speculation vs Demand Debate


In Rolling Stone's The Great American Bubble Machine, Matt Taibbi accuses Goldman Sachs of inflating and exploiting a great many economic bubbles, including the commodity market for oil, which, he claimed, crippled the average consumer by driving up the price of fuels for driving and heating. I have no doubt that Goldman Sachs did their best to profit from commodities, but I wonder if Taibbi has fallen for a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy.

In line with Peak Oil theory, James Hamilton of Econbrowser believed that increasing demand vs peaking supply was at the core of the price increases. AFAIK, Hamilton has not yet responded to the Taibbi article, but about a year ago, in response to persistent debate about whether speculation could or would drive prices higher, he posted this article by Scott Irwin, who holds the Laurence J. Norton Chair of Agricultural Marketing at the University of Illinois.

Index Funds and Commodity Prices... Here We Go Again by Scott Irwin

[Start with] the non-controversial observation that a very large pool of speculative money has been invested in different types of commodity derivatives over the last several years. The controversial part is [the conclusion] that money flows of this size must have resulted in significant upward pressure on commodity prices, which in turn drove up energy and food prices to consumers throughout the world. This argument is conceptually flawed and reflects a fundamental and basic misunderstanding of how commodity futures and related derivatives markets actually work.
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The first and most fundamental error ... is to equate money inflows into futures and derivatives markets with demand, at least as economists define the term. Investment dollars flowing into either the long or short side of futures or derivative markets is not the same thing as demand for physical commodities. My esteemed predecessor at the University of Illinois, Tom Hieronymus , put it this way, "for every long there is a short, for everyone who thinks the price is going up there is someone who thinks it is going down, and for everyone who trades with the flow of the market, there is someone trading against it." These are zero-sum markets where all money flows must by definition net to zero. It makes as much logical sense to call the long positions of index funds new "demand" as it does to call the positions of the short side of the same contracts new "supply."
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[The] second error is to argue that index fund investors artificially raise both futures and cash commodity prices when they only participate in futures and related derivatives markets. In the very short-run, from minutes to a few days at most, commodity prices typically are discovered in futures markets and price changes are passed from futures to cash markets. This is sensible because trading can be conducted more quickly and cheaply in futures compared to cash markets. However, equilibrium prices are ultimately determined in cash markets where buying and selling of physical commodities must reflect fundamental supply and demand forces. This is precisely why all commodity futures contracts have some type of delivery or cash settlement system to tie futures and cash market prices together.
...
A third error ... is an unrealistic understanding of the trading activities of hedgers and speculators. In the standard story, hedgers are benign risk-avoiders and speculators are potentially harmful risk-seekers. This ignores nearly a century of research by Holbrook Working, Roger Gray, Tom Hieronymus, Anne Peck, and others, showing that the behavior of hedgers and speculators is actually better described as a continuum between pure risk avoidance and pure speculation. Nearly all commercial firms labeled as "hedgers" speculate on price direction and/or relative price movements, some frequently, others not as frequently. In the parlance of modern financial economics, this is described as hedgers "taking a view on the market." Just last week, when commenting on new survey results of swap dealers and index traders , the CFTC stated that, "The current data received by the CFTC classifies positions by entity (commercial versus noncommercial) and not by trading activity (speculation versus hedging). These trader classifications have grown less precise over time, as both groups may be engaging in hedging and speculative activity."
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What all this means is that the entry of index funds into commodity futures markets did not disturb a textbook equilibrium of pure risk-avoiding hedgers and pure risk-seeking speculators, but instead the funds entered a dynamic and ever changing "game" between commercial firms and speculators with various motivations and strategies. Since commercial firms have the considerable advantage of information gleaned from their far-flung cash market operations, they have traditionally dominated commodity futures markets and speculators have tended to be at a disadvantage. (If you are skeptical, I recommend reading the classic study by Michael Hartzmark about who wins and loses in futures markets.) In this light, entry of large index fund speculators has the potential to improve competition in commodity futures and derivatives markets, particularly as index funds become smarter about moving in and out of their positions.

In plain language, a commenter notes:

Folks, if you buy a futures contract at twice the price of the commodity and you can never sell it to someone else, you will receive delivery on your doorstep of what ever the commodity is and you will pay twice the price for the commodity. Not a smart move.

So as I read this, peak oilers would not claim that the futures market was not manipulated, but they would argue that the actual prices were rising more due to demand than to speculation in the futures market.


47 Comments

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I'll agree with a lot of that, Donal. But when a derivative market gets dominated by speculators it creates volatility because those people are by their very nature betting on price movements. If you're big enough, you also create price movements, pump up the bubble in the press, scare end-users so that they pay more for their hedges, and then hope you get out before the bubble pops. Speculators love price volatility, and price volatility creates uncertainty, which is costly. That's why I'd like to see them limited in terms of the volume of trades they can conduct.

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I agree we want more oversight and transparency, but I'm skeptical that "eliminating" speculation will somehow keep the price of oil affordable.

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Doesn't this ignore the practice of locking up supplies? I don't have the link handy, but in a recent article (re cap-and-trade potentially bringing some regulation to commodities) a case is highlighted where simply by closing down owned storage facilities, one trader was able to send the NY prices sky-high and make a killing by jacking the price of a trade. And the article indicates that this is both legal and SOP in that market.

The last I heard there was a flotilla of tankers cooling their heels offshore soaking up supply. Isn't that similar to the NY trader's practice of spigot-control but at the crude-supply level? It also creates the dynamic where at any time the owner of these tanks can flood the market and profit from any short positions, cashing in on their ability to control prices both coming and going. If these guys strategically buy stock in the energy companies themselves, they also get a chunk of the house-fee: the increased profits oil companies achieve from the reasonably consistent legitimate purchasers who pay full speculation prices for being the suckers forced to actually take delivery (and the knowledge when a stored crude infusion will reduce stock prices).

We are getting reamed ... over and over and over.

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Doesn't that represent excess capacity to soak up more supply rather than let it hit the market?

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That may be true. I just don't see how it's relevant to my point.

The amount of oil stored at sea climbed to the highest in at least two decades because traders could buy the commodity, sit on it and take advantage of higher prices in the future, according to Frontline Ltd., the biggest supertanker operator. Hamilton, Bermuda-based Frontline on May 28 estimated as many as 60 supertankers were storing oil.
[..Snip..]
Traders are now seeking to store oil products. JPMorgan Chase & Co. booked the newly built supertanker Front Queen to store 2 million barrels of heating oil off the coast of Malta, and several other traders are seeking similar deals, Athens- based Optima Shipbrokers said June 2.

A supertanker is capable of storing about 2 million barrels of crude, more than France consumes every day. Crude oil has advanced 55 percent in New York trading this year, rebounding from last year’s 54 percent slump.

Am I missing something? This implies they are sitting on at least enough crude to supply all of France's needs for more than two full months. Isn't it quite an advantage to know what the plans for all that oil is BEFORE making a speculative purchase - and to be able to release or hold it back depending on the investor's position?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=a7ATbV1ocXJE&refer=energy

(Note: there are better articles showing how this is used to manipulate ... this was just what 32 seconds and teh Googles turned up on the topic of offshore oil storage).

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OK, the second quote refers to the glut of heating oil and other distillates of crude oil that can only be sold at a loss right now. Storing crude oil is a gamble that the price will rise. Prices just jumped to $73 after some shenanigans, then dropped to around $60.

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A trader closed down owned storage facilities? I didn't think traders owned storage facilities...

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aaaahhhh found it....

When Olav Refvik wanted to boost the price of heating oil to make a lucrative energy deal even more lucrative, the Morgan Stanley trader locked up several storage tanks the bank owned near New York Harbor to squeeze supply. Far from being illegal, the maneuver -- which earned him millions and the moniker "King of New York Harbor" -- is business as usual in the "regulated" commodities market.

I imagine there are all sorts of things these assholes do that most people don't know about.

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I don't really see what's wrong with it. Morgan Stanley owns the tanks. The move to shut them could have easily backfired if some other event caused the price to drop and they were sitting on the asset. For all the "speculators" making money there were others losing money.

If Morgan Stanley was making bets that drove the price of oil down to $20, I don't think anybody would be complaining.

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It certainly is difficult to maintain that this describes the economics of properly functioning market based on true commodity supply and demand.

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Why not? They own the tanks and they can choose when to keep them filled and when to sell their inventory. Obviously they have no physical need for the oil, but does that mean that they can't trade in it? If they are taking physical delivery then they are part of the supply equation.

I can't imagine that one player would be able to corner the market and really control prices.

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Morgan Stanley alone controls the ability to manipulate 20 million barrels of oil - not counting leased offshore storage. They are concentrated regionally in New England allowing them to maximize the effect of their manipulations regionally. They can at the stroke of a pen remove 15%+ of all heating oil from the regional market. You don't see how that could impact prices?

Goldman Sachs is even worse. They own a refinery in Coffeyville, Kan., and control 43,000 miles of pipeline and more than 150 storage terminals. If gasoline goes too low ... ooops, time to shut down Coffeyville for maintenance.

When major suppliers manipulate the availability of the commodity, the economics skew away from the ostensible controls of a free market - which relies on un-manipulated supply and demand.

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You don't think Exxon takes out supply for the same reasons?

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20 million??

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20 million is what the what the report says. That's the equivalent to 10 supertankers I guess.

And yeah, I think Exxon is playing this game too.

Don't lose sight of the question here. It's not if this behavior should be prohibited or condoned - it's simply if speculation and manipulation are significantly responsible for inflating the price of oil. I feel they are.

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I feel speculation plays a role, and should be regulated, but I think think blaming all the price swings on speculation ignores the reality of our dependence on cheap energy.

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What about deflating the price of oil? Did speculators also drive the price of oil down to below $50 at the end of last year?

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Rec'd

But I agree with this comment. I can't see any reason why commodities derivative markets should behave any differently than any other market -- and thus be subject to the whimsy of speculators. If anything, it's more volative, given the limited supply controlled by controversial actors.

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Again, I agree that more regulation and greater transparency are needed, but what supply do they control? They are selling futures.

Again from the article:

An important and related point is that a very large number of futures and derivative contracts can be created at a given price level. In theory, there is no limit. This is another way of saying that flows of money, no matter how large, do not necessarily affect the futures price of a commodity at a given point in time. Prices will change if new information emerges that causes market participants to revise their estimates of supply and/or demand. Note that a contemporaneous correlation can exist between money flows (position changes) and price changes if information on fundamentals is changing at the same time. ... simply observing that large investment has flowed into the long side of commodity futures markets at the same time that prices have risen substantially does not necessarily prove anything. [This is] the classical statistical mistake of confusing correlation with causation. One needs a test that accounts for changes in money flow and fundamentals before a conclusion can be reached (more on this later).
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Here's the problem with your idea: Last September, when the "economic meltdown" ocurred, the price of gas here in California was averaging $5 per gallon, one of the highest in the nation. Within weeks, the price dropped to about $2.30 per gallon and below. Nationwide, the averages were even lower, at about $2-even. The demand hadn't changed, certainly not that much; here in California we need our cars to get to work, and we'll do our walking on the weekends, if need be.

What caused the price per gallon to fall so far, so fast? By late October, crude oil prices, which make up roughly half of gasoline prices, had fallen more than 60 per cent from a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11. Ten weeks.

What had changed? In the first days of the meltdown, banks froze credit. The money flow stopped. There was no capital with which to speculate on the price of crude oil futures. Could that have had an effect on the price of gas at the pump?

Sure... it was all supply and demand. And UFOs killed Kennedy!


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Curt - it's about future supply and demand, not trailing. The price of gas fell through the floor because people were worried that the world was coming to an end and we were going to be entering a new Great Depression. Fortunately that didn't happen but that's what drove it down. Expectations about future demand.

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Exactly! The price wasn't based on how much of a product consumers wanted to purchase for use contrasted against quantity of that product available. It was(is) based on what speculators could get each other to imagine things might look like in the future. Any way you slice it, true supply and demand has not been driving prices.

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Actually, you're wrong. The price is based on what the market is willing to pay for it. The market consists of corporates (Chevron, Calpine, NRG, etc, etc that all use derivatives to hedge oil and natural gas prices) and financial players. But that doesn't mean that "speculators" (however you're defining it) are controlling the market.

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I gotta agree with Curt on this. The other 4 investment banks were trying to avoid the fate of Bear Sterns and there was no other sector to make that kind of big cash quickly. At the G8 meeting in Tokyo last summer a number leaders like Merkel were saying we must rein in speculation of commodities like oil. It was destroying everybody's economies. That's when things started to cool off and then in September the game came to a screeching halt.

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Before we talk about the price drop, let's look at the spike. Many energy gurus had been predicting $200/bbl oil for quite some time. After the $147 spike, James Hamilton testified before Congress:

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2009/05/Hamilton_JEC_2009_05_20.html

... the price rise over 2007-08 resulted from a number of separate factors. World oil production decreased slightly between 2005 and 2007. Declining production from mature oil fields in the North Sea and Mexico played a role, as did political instability in Nigeria. Saudi Arabian production, which many analysts had expected would have increased to meet rising demand, fell by 850,000 barrels/day between 2005 and 2007. These declines were enough to offset production gains in places such as Angola and central Asia, with the result that total global oil production dropped slightly over this two-year period.

Although production stagnated, the demand for petroleum continued to boom. World petroleum consumption had increased by 5 million barrels per day during 2004 and 2005, driven largely by a 9.4% increase in global GDP over the two years. Over the next two years-- 2006 and 2007-- world GDP grew an additional 10.1%, which in the absence of an increase in the price of oil would have produced further big increases in the quantity of oil consumed. Even with the price increases, Chinese oil consumption increased by 870,000 barrels per day between 2005 and 2007. With no more oil being produced, that meant that residents of the U.S., Europe, and Japan had to reduce our consumption a comparable amount. The price of oil needed to rise by whatever it took to persuade us to do so.

How much the price needed to rise in order to balance global demand with supply depends on how quickly consumers change their habits in response to a change in the price of oil. The historical experience has been that even very large oil price increases cause relatively little immediate change in the quantity of oil consumed. The response of consumers to energy price increases over 2004-2006 was if anything even smaller than those historical estimates. One reason for that smaller response may be that energy expenditures as a fraction of total spending by U.S. consumers had fallen from 8% in 1979 to 5% in 2004. The reason that we were purchasing about the same quantity of gasoline despite the increase in the price was that many of us could afford to do just that.

By June of 2008, the price of gasoline had reached $4/gallon, driving the energy budget share back up to 7%. While some people had been ignoring $3 gasoline, $4 definitely got their attention. The resulting abrupt changes in spending patterns can be quite disruptive for certain key economic sectors and seem to be part of the mechanism by which the earlier oil price shocks had contributed to previous economic recessions. The kinds of economic responses we saw between 2007:Q4 and 2008:Q3 were in fact quite similar to those observed to have followed previous dramatic oil price increases.

Daniel Yergin testified jointly, and did not materially disagree with Hamilton's conclusions.

So why did oil prices fall so fast? The economy crashed and we stopped driving so much.

... the drops in overall spending that were caused by higher oil prices proved to be the knockout punch for an economy that was already wobbly. Whatever your preferred culprit might be for our current difficulties-- loan default rates, falling house prices, debt burdens, or pessimistic sentiment-- that measure would have had a more favorable value going into the fall of 2008 if we had experienced more favorable fundamentals in terms of income and jobs over 2007:Q4-2008:Q3. And there's no question that more favorable fundamentals are exactly what we would have had if the price of oil had never gone over $100 a barrel.

The fact that the biggest drop in output didn't occur until well after the oil price went up, and resulted not from the oil price itself but instead from the interaction with other factors and the dynamic forces unleashed when the overall level of economic activity began to decline, is also exactly the same pattern we saw in each of the previous recessions.

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Donal... 60 percent price drop in just over two months. Arguing last year's ever-booming gas price wasn't driven by commodities speculation is like arguing up is down, night is day, and black is white...

Please...

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The booming oil price was driven (haha) by demand for oil that exceeded supplies. In parallel, oil commodity futures were touted as the safest place to keep money because people would always buy fuel. Investors were convinced that people would keep driving & buying fuel, truckers would keep delivering stuff & buying diesel, etc., no matter the price. Fuel demand was, "inelastic."

But fuel demand stopped being quite so inelastic when people (not all but enough) started being scared enough to cut back on discretionary driving, and to stop buying SUVs, and to start carpooling or taking public transportation. They were paying more for fuel and food ( and some were losing jobs and houses) and so stopped ordering so much stuff, which cut back on trucking and shipping.

And worldwide demand dropped below supplies, and the price crashed.

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Heh, NWO site. Yeah, a lot of people want to believe that prices are due to speculation. It's always easier to find a bogeyman.

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I remember when the price of electricity in California went crazy: $400/MWh, $750/MWh, and so on.

Some of us said it was market manipulation.

Others were like you: "oh my gosh no, nobody could possibly manipulate the electricity market in California! You just want to believe that because it makes you feel better!"

And then Enron screwed up. Later, the facts about El Paso Energy came out as well.

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I'm not saying there couldn't possibly be manipulation, I'm saying that the fundamentals of supply and demand explain things better than bringing in a conspiracy of manipulation. And stupid manipulation, at that, because by pricing people into driving less, they would have been killing the golden goose. OPEC has generally been careful not to make that mistake.

Enron did make that mistake.

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OK, how about "60 Minutes", from earlier this year:

As the president of the Petroleum Marketers Association, he represents more than 8,000 retail and wholesale suppliers, everyone from home heating oil companies to gas station owners.

When 60 Minutes talked to him last summer, his members were getting blamed for gouging the public, even though their costs had also gone through the roof. He told Kroft the problem was in the commodities markets, which had been invaded by a new breed of investor.

"Approximately 60 to 70 percent of the oil contracts in the futures markets are now held by speculative entities. Not by companies that need oil, not by the airlines, not by the oil companies. But by investors that are looking to make money from their speculative positions," Gilligan explained.

Heh! Guess CBS is NWO, too?


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He's talking about the futures market, not the spot market.

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And this distinction means what to consumers? Donal, the whole issue here is that the price of gas shot through the roof last year because of runaway speculation in oil commodities markets. You say it primarily was because of supply and demand - which was exactly the argument last year of investment banks and Big Oil. It's happening again, now, as banks free-up credit to underwrite such speculation, and prices jump dramatically.

Here's the key dilemma: Your argument puts responsility for the price increases on consumers at the pump. It was their demand, according to you, that helped boost prices so wildly last year?

Why are you blaming consumers?

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"Why are you blaming consumers?" - SFC
"Why do they hate our freedoms?" - GWB

Aren't emotionally-charged questions a great feature of rhetoric? I am not blaming consumers anymore than Bush's opponents hated out freedoms. But I do believe that demand (resulting from our energy habits) has driven the price of oil to a much larger extent than speculation.

A market of commodities or securities in which goods are sold for ready cash and delivered immediately is known as Spot Market. Deals are struck for future action in the future markets. A future contract can be defined as a type of financial contract wherein parties agree to exchange financial instruments like securities or physical commodities for future delivery at a particular price. Future contract is a standardized contract to buy at a future date at a certain price.

Future market is full of risk because anything might go wrong at any stage and the transaction may become invalid or void. Stock markets all over the world are highly volatile and the value of the traded security may go down at any time. Similarly if a commodity like crude oil is traded, the happening of the future event may be subject to political equations between the two countries; unrest in a neighboring country may delay the delivery. Thus the future market does not meet the safety requirement of business. Trading in future market is not for the risk averse. It is only for those who trust others and their own luck. A very small percentage of future contracts turn to physical delivery.

http://www.altiusdirectory.com/Finance/spot-market-vs-future-market.html

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Emotionally charged? Yes... well... when in doubt, invoke Bush. No one's going to argue our energy appetite isn't outlandish, but I think your dogma is blinding you to the reality. From the Wall Street Journal last week:

Policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic launched an effort to crack down on what they called speculation in oil markets, underscoring concerns that a sharp rise in oil prices could worsen the global economic downturn...

The price of oil recently bounced back to some $73 a barrel from a 2009 low of nearly $34, despite a slump in demand, bulging supplies and a world economy in the doldrums. Crude, which closed at $62.93 Tuesday, reached $145 a barrel last summer. Higher prices could affect the prospects for economic recovery: A sustained 10% rise in the price of oil can knock as much as 0.4 percentage point off global economic growth over the subsequent 12 months, estimates Jim O'Neill, chief economist at Goldman Sachs.

Much trade in oil futures is carried out by commercial traders such as oil companies, utilities and airlines, seeking to protect their profits against swings in energy prices. In recent years, big noncommercial traders such as hedge funds and investment banks have poured money into oil and other commodities. Such investors typically put their money in indexes that track the value of futures contracts, in which investors promise to pay a certain amount in the future for oil and other commodities.

That phrase "despite a slump in demand" is the real key, even more than the fact Western governments are questioning financial and commerical sectors usually untouchable.

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Ad hominem, ad hominem ...

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I think speculation is one the greatest under reported aspects of American history. It was land speculation in the 17th and 18th centuries.

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Would anyone care about speculators if most of the speculators were shorting oil and the price of a barrell was in the $20 range? Somehow I don't think it would get as much attention.

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For once, you're right :-)

Thing is, the market manipulators do manipulate on both the long and short sides. And indeed, complaints abound when the long-side speculators manage to manipulate the price up to $150/bbl, then subside when they switch directions and manipulate it down to $40/bbl. Current supply and demand balance makes the "appropriate" price somewhere in the $60 to $80 range, but some players are able to not merely place bets on the price, but also push the price. This makes the "bets" pretty safe.

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OK, here's another source indicating that speculation, not supply vs. demand has driven oil prices:
(Based on a CBS expose via MotleyFool)

And when the price of oil jumped $25 in a single day on 9/22/08:
Greenberg commented: Did China and India suddenly have gigantic needs for new oil products in a single day? No. Everybody agrees supply-demand could not drive the price up $25, which was a record increase in the price of oil. The price of oil went from somewhere in the 60s to $147 in less than a year. And we were being told, on that run-up, 'It's supply-demand, supply-demand, supply-demand.


Masters commented: From quarter four of '07 until the second quarter of '08 the EIA, the Energy Information Administration, said that supply went up, worldwide supply went up. And worldwide demand went down. So you have supply going up and demand going down, which generally means the price is going down. This was the period of the spike. So you had the largest price increase in history during a time when actual demand was going down and actual supply was going up during the same period. However, the only thing that makes sense that lifted the price was investor demand.


The CBS program concluded:
The oil bubble began to deflate early last fall when Congress threatened new regulations and federal agencies announced they were beginning major investigations. It finally popped with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the near collapse of AIG, who were both heavily invested in the oil markets. With hedge funds and investment houses facing margin calls, the speculators headed for the exits.


"From July 15th until the end of November, roughly $70 billion came out of commodities futures from these index funds," Masters explained. "In fact, gasoline demand went down by roughly five percent over that same period of time. Yet the price of crude oil dropped more than $100 a barrel. It dropped 75 percent."

One other interesting note, if you look at the price of Oil on the day Lehman's folded - it tanked. Magically THE EXACT DAY Lehman's traders came back online under Barclay's banner, Oil shot back up again.

I agree with SFCurt. Trying to discount the role of speculation and manipulation in the cost of oil is laughable.

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And here's one that supports my view.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25463588/


I can't wait for oil to drop back down to $20 or $30 and you'll again be blaming the "speculators".

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This article ignores everything that happened in 2007-2008 - when the price of oil shot from the $60s to $147. Instead it focuses on 2000-2007 to show demand increased by 9 million barrels and supply by 5 million ... while actual prices only rose to $64.

Left unexplained (and unmentioned) is how between 4th quarter 2007 and June 2008 this dynamic would cause oil - which up to that point was rising at an average of $5 per year - to jump from $64.20 to $126.33 (on it's way to $147). Did early 2008 see a 100% increase in world oil consumption? Well, no ... the article I linked shows that consumption actually fell while supplies increased during this period.

Care to elaborate?

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See the response to Markg8 above.

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Why do you keep focusing on trailing supply and demand? Why aren't you focused on future expectations?

There isn't a 1:1 correlation between price movements and consumption. Have you ever seen a stock rise (or fall) faster than its profits are growing? Of course.

www.house.gov/jec/news/2009/Hamilton_testimony.pdf

You'll see from the link to the testimony in front of Congress that supply from 2005-2007 actually decreased while demand, especially out of China, continued to rise.

I'm not saying that financial players don't influence the market, but they certainly can't control where prices go.

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