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Week of July 19, 2009 - July 25, 2009

Chart Attack


Doug Short's chart above, comparing three recessions with the Great Depression, has been posted and updated fairly often in various blogs I read.

But these are new to me:

For those who correctly understand that the "real" S&P 500 bear market started in 2000 with the Tech Crash, here is a chart that overlays its performance on the legendary Dow Crash and Great Depression. Both are adjusted for inflation using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index (CPI). Dividends are excluded.

... this time adjusted using the Alternate CPI maintained by Economist John Williams at his Shadow Government Statistics website. Williams' Alternate CPI preserves the algorithms in place before 1982, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics began introducing a series of modifications to their calculation methods. Those modifications have significantly reduced the government's official estimate of inflation, which has a ripple effect throughout the economy. For example, Social Security Cost-of-Living-Adjustments (COLAs) are accordingly reduced -- not a happy outcome for senior citizens.

Planning Edge Cities as New Urban


The Washington Post reports:

A densely packed "science city" near Gaithersburg, clusters of 25-story high-rises in White Flint along Rockville Pike and new developments with minimal parking are among the sweeping proposals approved yesterday by Montgomery County planners [shown above].

When we moved to rural Maryland in 1965, Gaithersburg was a fairly sleepy farm community nearby, and Rockville Pike was one lane in each direction. We were precursors of the invasion of families looking for suburban homes so parents could commute to DC, Bethesda or Silver Spring. Forty years later, so much has changed that I can barely find my way around Gaithersburg.

Planning Board Chairman Royce Hanson has predicted that the next wave of newcomers in Montgomery [County] will be more urban-oriented and ready to give up the detached houses, two cars and front lawns of the past. The proposals approved yesterday, he said, are major steps toward creating a new type of suburb where it would be easy for residents and workers to walk, bike or rely on public transportation. Hanson said his hope is to produce "great urban centers" that include a mix of housing types to accommodate various incomes and lifestyles.

...

Yesterday's decisions provide a blueprint for political leaders to address an array of issues. The board laid the groundwork for Johns Hopkins University to build its proposed high-density scientific community west of Interstate 270 near Gaithersburg; for developers to transform the aging and car-centric White Flint area into a high-rise mini-city, with a vibrant street life, that could be larger than Tysons Corner; and for landowners to build housing and offices with little parking, provided they are close to Metro stations and other public transit.

But will the infrastructure support cluster cities?

Pam Lindstrom, a Gaithersburg resident who tracks land-use issues for the Sierra Club, is worried about the density of the proposed Johns Hopkins "science city," saying that the area could not absorb it and that planners were relying on "ephemeral, weak, somewhat theoretical regulatory schemes to make it work."

It is unlikely they will eliminate auto traffic like the German suburb Vauban but might Montgomery County consider the approach to garbage taken by Hammarby Sjostad?

Hammarby Sjostad, a suburb of Stockholm, has practically eliminated garbage, by taking recycling to extremes. But it happens with no extra trouble for residents -- the waste-to-energy systems are all built-in.

The city handles its waste like something from a science fiction story. It's like a giant whole-house vacuum cleaner, only it clears waste from the entire town.

Each apartment building has a built-in receptacle with three openings for different kinds of waste.

...

This isn't government-subsidized efficiency. The apartments are built by private developers, they share the investment in the waste system, and the costs are comparable to living in downtown Stockholm. About 19,000 people live here, and the town is still growing.

Planners insist that all the city agencies work together to achieved the ambitious goals of 50 percent less energy use, and 50 percent less water use, compared to other Swedish households. One agency's waste becomes another agency's resource.

BTW, I once drew townhouses for a client with the same name as the fellow with the orange tie.

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Donal

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  • Website: www.donalfagan.com
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