To Have and Have Not
Another pundit tells us what the future holds:
The Next Big Thing: Neomedievalism By Parag Khanna
... as countries stumble to right the wrongs of the corporate masters of the universe, they are driving us right back to a future that looks like nothing more than a new Middle Ages, that centuries-long period of amorphous conflict from the fifth to the 15th century when city-states mattered as much as countries.
...
This diffuse, fractured world will be run more by cities and city-states than countries. ... Today, just 40 city-regions account for two thirds of the world economy and 90 percent of its innovation. The mighty Hanseatic League, ... will be reborn as cities such as Hamburg and Dubai form commercial alliances and operate "free zones" across Africa like the ones Dubai Ports World is building. Add in sovereign wealth funds and private military contractors, and you have the agile geopolitical units of a neomedieval world.
Again, I think many things could happen, and this makes as much sense as a lot of other predictions. What seems clear to me is that there will be a growing exodus of those having steady work, reliable energy, healthy food, clean water and security into the class of those not always having those things. The haves, aided by the press, will dehumanize the have-nots, blaming them, as they do now, for their predicament. Who will end up among the haves is less clear, but I think a lot of folk who assume that they have reserved spots at the "haves" table will be disappointed.
I haz pitchfork.
June 7, 2009 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh somebody sent me to Gary Larson:
http://www.davidpriestjazzpiano.com/images/Larson01img447_000.jpg
June 8, 2009 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for flagging this Donal. Interesting read.
June 7, 2009 10:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
The haves will never be safe. Their walled cities will be no proection.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death
June 8, 2009 2:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
At what point do the “HAVES” figure it out?
The “HAVES” benefit from the CDC, they benefit from everyone having health care.
It won’t take a gun to take away the “Haves” security. A rodent under the fence could do more damage. Imagine a report of some “ have-not” that didn’t seek medical care, becoming in effect a walking host, until the bacteria became immune to any drug.
I agree, many have-nots will have pitchforks; but the have-nots only have to lay this disease-ridden body at the gate, or in the Bushes by the Gate.
Birds and mice the smallest creatures amongst us will be dreaded.
The have-nots, with nothing to lose, would get revenge.
THE END
June 8, 2009 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quite an interesting take on the future....not too far-fetched even. Although, couldn't they have come up with something better than calling it Neomedievalism? Makes me think of the Pox.
June 8, 2009 8:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sheep_Look_Up
He gets a good amount of details wrong, yet the broad strokes of how a society winds down into dystopia seem rather prescient.
June 8, 2009 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, another book to read.
June 8, 2009 2:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a good, if depressing, read.
June 8, 2009 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Less Middle Ages and more Late Roman Empire.
Modern city states require an umbrella of protection and must look to a global power to provide it. And too, they need a common mode of exchange and of accounting (a reserve currency).
Our absurdly expensive military budget and equally expensive central bank may prove valuable investments after all.
June 8, 2009 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Assuming your City is one who will be protected. This economic meltdown is about us dying from within. The military power will not protect cities. In the 21st century, that is what Blackwater/Xe is supposed to do, i.e. Katrina. As for the central bank, all our paper is owned by China.
June 8, 2009 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
It has already occurred to me that the world every day looks more and more like a Heinlein novel, and not in any of the possible good ways.
In one of them, maybe _Friday_, Acapulco gets nuked after getting into a dispute with IBM. The idea is that the corporations have the advantage because they are dispersed and have no geographical location to attack, while cities are sitting ducks. So at least in regards to cities, Heinlein's vision is even grimmer than this guy's model.
June 8, 2009 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is more than just an interesting take on things Donal. I for one, shall ponder this further.
June 8, 2009 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
One factor pushing along this "medievalisation" is the rush to privatize as much as possible of our social and political dynamic. There are, today, private armies, intelligence agencies and mail delivery systems. There are private communities in gated seclusion. I've carefully outlined my own plans to break away the Golden State - as the Holy Empire of Inter-Cascadia (and the Vassal States of Arizona and Nevada). This will be a land free of want, and in which whippin' may not be such a bad thing. HURT ME MISTRESS!!!
June 8, 2009 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
What an interesting idea. Certainly nation states will play a decreasingly important role in the world, but I don't see city states assuming prominence as much as I see chaos. When you have all those entities - corporations, sovereign wealth funds, NGOs, governments (whether city or nation), superwealthy individuals, and mercenaries, each one being guided by its own self interest - what can possibly come from it but chaos and anarchy?
Frankly, I have felt for some time now that this country has been sinking into its own little dark age. Fundamentalism and anti-intellecualism have contributed to an increasingly ignorant and uninformed population. I'd say we're already on our way to the future.
June 8, 2009 4:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a hell of a thing to happen. Better get right with God.
Carey Rowland, author of Glass Chimera
June 8, 2009 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think civilization has peaked. I was listening to tales of woe today on NPR.
Let's all give up, eh? The corps won.
June 8, 2009 8:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don’t let All Things Considered get you down, Bwak! Even the corporations are cutting their own throats for short term gain. We may end up with nothing but the Hads and Had-nots. Then we can skip the Middle Ages and go straight to hunter-gatherer tribes again. I'm getting my group together, just in case.
Everyone will have their own specialty skills. For example, I'm a master of city camouflage- sitting on a park bench reading a newspaper, I'm all but invisible. I've tested it, it works! And I can squirt milk from my eyes but only after drinking it, not from scratch, so scratch that. My dog, Muddy, can hold four tennis balls in his mouth with only slight gagging (good for carrying apples or Big Macs) and I can open a beer with a rusty hammer, a toilet seat or the door of my '84 K-car...
Well, I'll find something to contribute. Like the biblical Israelites, we're calling ourselves the Suburbanites (our colors- taupe and almond). Still working on an anthem...
June 8, 2009 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Suggestion.
June 8, 2009 11:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice. Thanks (I think), since you coulda just as easily suggested the previous video which asks the musical question, "Did you forget to take your meds today?"
June 9, 2009 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink