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Should Obama rescue GM, Ford or Chrysler? Update 2


Besides the auto workers and their pensions, there are millions of jobs downstream at stake. Assuming he can, should Obama try to rescue all or any of these companies? I know what I think, I’m just curious what you think.

Update: Hat tip to pilakia’s Deep Thought post for Why Would You Bail Out an Industry This Stupid?

Update 2: Hat tip to Daily Dish for link to Megan McArdle’s Invidious Comparisons.


32 Comments

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I'm no fan of the US auto industry or the car culture in general, but if Obama can pull a feasible plan off that requires Detroit to boost fuel efficiency standards, it will be impressive.

Of course, without concomitant land-use reform, increased fuel efficiency will simply decrease the costs of driving and the problems of sprawl will be exacerbated.

I have more hope in his infrastructure investment scheme. He could link an auto bailout to bus manufacturing, for instance, but I am pretty sure GM has gotten out of the transit market in recent years.

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There's that pesky paradox again. It would be amusing to see GM turned into a trolley company.

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With a condition: all gasoline-powered vehicles manufactured or sold in the US must be required to run on any blend of gasoline or alcohol, either ethanol or methanol. The technology exists, it adds just a few hundred dollars to the cost of a car, and it sets us down the path toward a vehicle fuels market independent on oil imports.

Next, we need to examine market impediments to bio-diesel fuels - the oil companies do control a significant amount of the retail fuel outlets and therefore control whether bio-fuel tanks and pumps will be installed at those retail outlets.

There are valid concerns concerning the reallocation of food crops to fuel production; I believe we can solve those problems quickly. Some folks argue that we must re-engineer our societies to mimimize the use of personal transportation. As a long-term goal it is one part of an overall strategy, but folks like me in the Southwest face much greater challenges in the short-term given that our communities aren't designed around mass transit.

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I think he may wind up rescuing all three with a long-term, multi-year support plan.

And I'm okay with that.

Short term (I will be facetious): he can arrange for the government to buy up backed up inventory and (x)% future production and sell those vehicles overseas at competitive prices (which means substantial mark-downs and a net substantial loss on our balance sheet-oh well we get some of it back in tax)

Of course, this might set off a war or two!

Seriously though, we are in a crisis of over-capacity in the world manufacturing sector. I am totally stumped how we can stimulate the aggregate demand.

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I could see letting Chrysler wither. Chrysler has already been bailed out once, and I can't think of a single C/P/D vehicle that particularly interests me anymore, although my stepson would probably miss the Viper. Daimler sold Chrysler to a holding company called Cerberus Capital Management (hence auto pundits call them Chryslerberus), so it isn't a grand old American car company anymore. Cerberus tried to unload Chrysler on GM.

That said, I think all three have to be restructured now to eliminate unsustainable debts and bloated management.

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A study says that if they go down 3 million jobs will be lost, along with taking us from a recession into a depression. Yea, Save them NOW.

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But if you save them now, they'll be back for more later.

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We have some strategic industries we cannot allow to fail. The automakers are right near the top of the list.

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Bailing them out will save Rick Wagoner and Clay Ford's jobs, but only for a while. I think they've already failed and that only a restructuring will actually save them.

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Your argument doesn't make sense to me Donal. The auto industry has to stay in business to restructure (whatever that means) and without life support at least one of them will be closing it's doors. It hardly seems logical that the economy will improve by putting few million more people out of work.

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Restructuring is the corporate management term for the act of partially dismantling or otherwise reorganizing a company for the purpose of making it more profitable. Also known as corporate restructuring, debt restructuring and financial restructuring.

Restructuring is often done as part of a bankruptcy or of a strategic takeover by another firm, such as a leveraged buyout by a private equity firm.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Restructuring

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Who would make our tanks and military vehiclea in another World War?

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General Dynamics makes the Abrams tank, BAE makes the Bradley Armored Vehicle and AM General make Humvees and even non-military H1 Hummers. The auto companies do make military vehicles like jeeps and trucks. Either restructured automakers would still have the capacity to make military vehicles, or they'd sell off those divisions that do such work.

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Automaking is a basic industry. We need it. Do we need it in its present form? Not necessarily. How to change it is the question.

The single biggest move towards saving the auto industry would be national single-payer health care. Save the carmakers, kill the insurance industry. I prefer that choice, BTW. (For the truly uninitiated, the insurance industry's primary function is not "coverage", it is generating investment capital. They've managed to write mandates amounting to welfare programs for them into state and federal laws. Time for that to change.)

Then, set mandatory - and increasing - fuel efficiency and emissions standards, while not specifying how they are reached. This will be the root of much innovation. That innovation will have tremendous spinoff benefits.

And a concurrent commitment to public transit, complete with the construction of both bus and rail infrastructures - and vehicles/rolling stock, both with strong domestic content requirements, along with other localized incentives such as surcharges on monthly parking contracts in downtown areas of larger cities, with the proceeds dedicated to transit subsidy. You want to commute by car, fine, you can underwrite a more sensible approach for others.

It's a start, anyway.

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Oscar, I agree with most of your points with some qualification/clarification:

I just want to get the insurance industry out of the health care business. There is still plenty of need for auto insurance, homeowners' insurance, life insurance, etc. In each of those fields market forces can (with sufficient state regulation) function and force insurance companies to compete.

The other note I want to make is that for young families public transportation is often not viable. Child care requirements force the need to move independent of rail or bus systems.

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I took my toddler across the country on Amtrak.

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...and your point is?

Try three kids, two schools, after-school activities, plus me in school, grocery shopping, etc. And I just have a nine-year-old and five-year-old twins - I got it easy.

That was a pretty darned arrogant and insensitive comment, Donal. A single cross-continent trip, on a train (no changing flights, no hustling child seats and diaper bags through terminals), with a single toddler sounds like pure luxury.

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I read your upthread comment. You chose to live in the Southwest - an area you describe as being particularly unsuited to life based on public transit. Are we then to bear the costs of your lifestyle choice?

And you talk about arrogant. Do anything, so long as it doesn't affect you, I guess...

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Yes, it was a luxury playing with my kids rather than watching 6000 miles of highway. And if that's arrogant, we have nothing further to discuss.

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I made that statement that "Child care requirements force the need to move independent of rail or bus systems."

You responded that you were able to take your toddler on a cross-country Amtrak trip. It must have been a wonderful experience, but your comment seemed like an attempt to negate the validity of my comment.

As for the consequences of living in the Southwest, Old Grouch, we have just approved a tax that will help cover the costs of our new light rail system travelling up and down the Rio Grande Corridor. But the problem remains that we have to re-engineer our communities to make public transit more practical - we didn't inherit dense urban infrastructure like the cities have back east or on the west coast. These are recently rural communities, largely centered on water resources.

I'm not going to argue the value of living in various areas of the country. If you are sure that you are "bearing the costs" of my "lifestyle choice", chances are anything I say isn't going to change your mind...

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OK, Guido. Where did I say ban cars? Because it does seem to be what you're implying.

We need to be more sensible, and reducing the number of private cars commuting into central city areas is part of it - not all of it. Much of the rest of my argument goes to the centrality of the auto industry to our economy - a vital part of our society. (Do not, repeat NOT, confuse the two, however.)

And if you don't think the rest of the insurance industry could stand a bit of "adjustment", think again. How much auto insurance would we need if health care was a basic national right? How much homeowners' insurance? Liability coverage requirements in general would likely diminish by large amounts.

Not so difficult to see if you think it through - harder will be implementing it against the rearguard action by the industry.

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You didn't say "ban cars". What you said was, "You want to commute by car, fine, you can underwrite a more sensible approach for others."

I understand what you mean by "localized incentives such as surcharges on monthly parking contracts in downtown areas of larger cities", but we have to construct such incentives so that they don't hurt the ones who can afford it least - the single parents, the caregivers for the disabled or elderly, folks whose day-to-day lives are logistical nightmares because they have larger issues than just getting themselves to and from work.

I very much agree that if medical liability was removed as an issue in the cost of auto insurance, the cost would go down. But we'd still need the insurance because accidents happen and property damage results.

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I generally agree. You know the old saying, "Teach a man to fish ...?" Unfortunately the US auto industry only wants to fish for marlin (not the AMC Marlin) in that they base their profit structure on trucks and truck-based SUVs.

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Give them the choice - accept the mandatory efficiency and emissions targets in order to get the rescue, or die. And then let them figure out how to meet them. They will, if they have to - and it will employ a lot of people in both development and manufacture.

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Who's supposed to buy these vehicles when we bail them out?

It has been reported that Citibank and others are going to Modify the home loans for struggling homeowners

So let' me see if I understand this.

A homeowner is going to the banker and the banker’s going to see what kind of payment the distressed homeowner can make, and then there will be an adjustment made.

Do you think the bank is going to allow the distressed homeowner to go out and buy a new car, in order to stimulate the economy?

There better be an across the board mortgage modification for every homeowner, but there won't be one. Then another bailout program will have been ineffective.

Of course the bankers will resist modifying all loans, they want to skin those who can afford to be skinned. So those with bad credit are now in a favored position?

I guess the plan should be EVERYBODY in America should skip 3 payments and then the banks will work and reduce your interest rates?

Then we all can do our part and save the auto industry, buy a car and skip your house payment.

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I should have wrote buy the car first, then skip your house payment, is that the new scheme?

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Hey, we already own a bunch of banks. We might as well start making some loans.

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We bailed them out, but it doesn't seem like we own them to me. As I mentioned in another post, the money's going in to a black hole:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aatlky_cH.tY&refer=home

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Interesting that your post title is now already moot. Congress is not waiting for Obama. Dems for it, GOP against:

Pelosi said yesterday she wants ``immediate action'' to give automakers additional assistance as shares of General Motors Corp. hit their lowest level since 1943 and analysts said the company faces possible bankruptcy. Bush hasn't said he would approve any further aid to those companies. Richard Shelby, the Senate Banking Committee's top Republican, opposes the measure.

Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid made clear the bill's prospects of winning passage in this month's ``lame duck'' session rely on help from both congressional Republicans and Bush.

Pelosi's Auto-Rescue Plan Sets Up Clash With Bush, Republicans

It suspect it's partly being done for President-Elect Obama, so that he doesn't have to start his administration with a mass of unemployed auto workers. Bush and friends react badly to any bill, they get the blame, not Obama.

My own feelings tend towards the way I felt about the bailout bill. They have to do something, but as always, they are doing a rushed job because of urgency without the proper expertise, i.e., they don't do anything about problems until there's a fire, then they have to do a half-assed job, pasted and slapped together. Often the fire occurs when they've got other important stuff on their plate which makes their response even more haphazard.

As I implied in this comment on another thread, I think a lot of people aren't coming to full terms with how much the global economic meltdown will be affecting everything Obama as president does. Just throw out everything else, everything else he said is off the table. Main streets around the world haven't seen the real effects yet. It will affect foreign policy, it will affect everything, he will be dealing with it and nothing else. There is a lot of hopeful stuff being said that I think shows a complete sense of denial about the economic situation. Example: He cannot worry about whether it's a bad long term idea to bailout automakers, he's got to do it for the short term good. A huge mass of unemployed autoworkers just hurts anything else he wants to do from the getgo.

You tell the auto companies to "drop dead" right now, and you are basically doing a Herbert Hoover, it would freak out the world and send shocks everywhere that you have no way of predicting. They waited too long to be able to do anything else, they should have been riding herd on them with standards long ago, all those SUV's should never have been made, but it's water over the damn now. Arguing that they should be punished now by letting them die is arguing "free market" laissez faire principles--in a way, I think that might be a good medicine to do with this situation IF the rest of the economy was healthier, and workers had someplace else to go, but the problem is, it's not.

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I wonder if they have the votes. Again, I think a restructuring is due, not a business-as-usual bailout, or an out-of-business bankruptcy. The management they have is clueless.

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I agree with artappraiser. Remember what happened when the feds let Lehman Bros. go under.

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Donal:

I am reluctant to post anything specific about the auto industry because of my real-life work responsibilities and some directly on-point experience, and because sometimes I put my real name on my posts. But I do want you to know that I appreciate you raising this issue with the community, and I have enjoyed reading the comment thread.

Bruce

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