Why He Owns a Gun


Link

After WVBiker's blog led me to the FN Five Seven, I started looking at reviews of it, and then youtube reviews of it and other small pistols. One thing led to another, and I found this guy Don's series of reviews and personal messages.

Eleven months ago, he posted about Global Warming being BS.

He also has this series of Why I Own a Gun stories: the prowler, the daughter's ex-boyfriend, etc. I found the one above, from eight months ago, fascinating because although he starts out with an, "I'm not a racist but we showed them" story, you can't miss the economic fear that creeps in at the end.

Three months ago, he posted about the wisdom of having a garden and investing in silver.

Two weeks ago, he posted about preparing for disaster.

Food: Organic vs Sustainable


Seed Magazine starts by questioning at our shopping habits. Organic food at Trader Joe's, Whole Foods and the like certainly is presented well, and seems less prone to spoil as soon as we get it home than some other supermarkets. But can we really shop our way to better agriculture?

Unfortunately, what may have begun as a revolt against fake food or, for many, the horrors of concentrated animal feed lots, has given way to a culture that increasingly fetishizes organic, natural, and whole foods with little agreement on what such terms even mean, outside of an emphatic devotion to what they are not: They aren't in any way related to industrial-scale farms or big-box grocery chains; chemical herbicides or pesticides; biotechnology or its subgenre, genetic engineering. And by those criteria, they are deemed to be safer, more nutritious, and less damaging to the environment.

Nutritionally, there is no clear evidence that organic foods trump conventional ones. ...

Nor are they part of a plan for sustainable farming. And we can't escape our expanding population and resulting overconsumption:

Today, agriculture--thanks to deforestation, nitrous oxide, methane from cattle and rice paddies--is considered by many experts to be an overlooked environmental disaster. Speaking at a special Earth Institute symposium earlier this month on how to improve global agriculture, economist Jeffrey Sachs told the audience, "Agriculture is the main driver of most ecological problems on the planet. We are literally eating away the other species on the planet."

Clunkers for Clunkers


I was no fan of Cash for Clunkers, but when Edmunds claimed that C4C cost taxpayers $24K per car, I thought their math was a bit tortured.

But now AP claims that FOIA data shows that thousands of buyers replaced their old gas guzzling trucks with newer gas guzzling trucks with scarcely better mpg, and occasionally even worse mpg. So in those cases, we handed out at least $4,500 per buyer, but gained no environmental and fuel efficiency benefits from the transaction.

Clunker pickups traded for new pickups

The single most common swap - which occurred more than 8,200 times - involved Ford 150 pickup owners who took advantage of a government rebate to trade their old trucks for new Ford 150s. They were 17 times more likely to buy a new F150 than, say, a Toyota Prius. The fuel economy for the new trucks ranged from 15 mpg to 17 mpg based on engine size and other factors, an improvement of just 1 mpg to 3 mpg over the clunkers.

Owners of thousands more large old Chevrolet and Dodge pickups bought new Silverado and Ram trucks, also with only barely improved mileage in the middle teens, according to AP's analysis of sales of $15.2 billion worth of vehicles at nearly 19,000 car dealerships in every state. Those deals helped the Ford 150 and Chevy Silverado - along with Ford's Escape midsize SUV - climb into the Top 10 most-popular vehicles purchased with the government rebates. The most common truck-for-truck and truck-for-SUV deals totaled at least $911 million.

In scores of deals, the government reported spending a total of $562,500 in rebates for new cars and trucks that got worse or the same mileage as the trade-ins - in apparent violation of the program's requirements. The government said it is investigating those reports and said in some cases they were probably entered incorrectly by dealers or based on outdated fuel economy figures.

The new data, obtained by the AP under the Freedom of Information Act, include details of 677,081 clunker trade-ins processed by the government through Oct. 16. More than 95,000 of the new vehicles purchased under the program - or about one in seven - got less than 20 mpg, according to the data.

No program is perfect, and a lot of buyers responded to the rising fuel prices and the spirit of the program, but this is disappointing. I wonder how many of these buyers complain about wastefulness in government as they drive their taxpayer-funded guzzlers around town?

The Farmer's Dilemma


I was raised eating plenty of meat. My Dad had occasionally gone hungry in the great depression, but was very prosperous as an adult. He liked for Mom to cook a lot of beef. I still like the taste, but in view of the environmental and health costs, and the grocery store prices, I have cut back on all sorts of meat.

Even on a family farm, slaughtering and eating animals isn't a kind, warm and fuzzy process, but it has become difficult to reconcile our appetites with the realities of industrial scale of food production. Agribusinesses respond by essentially asking if we'd rather go hungry.

The LA Times reports how Harris Ranch is pushing back against new ideas about farming:

California agribusiness pressures school to nix Michael Pollan lecture

Threatening to pull donations from the school, a major California agribusiness has succeeded in turning what was to be a campus lecture by Pollan tomorrow into a panel discussion involving Pollan, a meat-science expert and one of the largest organic growers in the U.S.

"While I understand the need to expose students to alternative views, I find it unacceptable that the university would provide Michael Pollan an unchallenged forum to promote his stand against conventional agricultural practices,'' David E. Wood, chairman of the Harris Ranch Beef Co., wrote in a scathing Sept. 23 letter to the Cal Poly president.

Wood has pledged $150,000 toward a new meat processing plant on campus. In his letter, he said Pollan's scheduled solo appearance had prompted him to "rethink my continued financial support of the university.'' He also criticized an animal sciences professor who said that conventional feedlots like the one run by Harris Ranch were not a form of sustainable agriculture.

(Isn't a meat-processing plant on a campus sort of redundant?)

[Pollan] said the Harris letter raised troubling questions about academic freedom.

"The issue is about whether the school is really free to explore diverse ideas about farming,'' he said. "Is the principle of balance going to apply across the board? The next time Monsanto comes to speak at Cal Poly about why we need [genetically modified organisms] to feed the world, will there be a similar effort? Will I be invited back for that show?"

On the other hand, in Gagging Michael Pollan, Counterpunch, which is trying to raise funds to stay afloat, notes:

... agribusiness has the University of Wisconsin-Madison to deal with.

The land grant, ag-based university, in the middle of dairyland, clearly doesn't remember its roots. It gave Pollan's In Defense of Food ... free to all incoming freshmen as part of its common book read program ...

Protesting farmers who came to hear Pollan speak at the university's 17,000-seat Kohl Center in September wearing matching green T-shirts which said "In Defense of Farming: Eat Food. Be Healthy. Thank Farmers." were clearly outnumbered. So were bumper stickers reading No Food; No Farms and Don't Criticize Farmers With Your Mouth Full in the parking lot.

Students get all their facts from writers like Pollan, the farmers, who were bussed in by Madison-based feed company Vita Plus, told the Capital Times. They have never visited a farm for first-hand knowledge of food production and don't know what they're talking about.

But efforts to open farms to the public are not always successful.

This month United Egg Producers' "Opening the Barn Doors" media tour at Morning Fresh Farms in northern Colorado, for example, only confirmed the size of today's egg farm that make humane conditions impossible (36 barns; 23,000 birds each, 23 million dozen eggs a year) and raised further questions about environmental blight by showing the press wearing white HazMat suits to enter the barns.

Clearly, the farms have grown into agribusinesses in response to demand. But, no matter what ag students learn, what sort of change in demand could lead to more sustainable practices?

Deflation?


Some people I used to read at peak oil webblog The Oil Drum have formed their own weblog, The Automatic Earth, which focuses on the economic crisis.

This is a very wide-ranging article with many helpful graphics, a few pieces of which I have quoted here:

The Case for Deflation

Deflation is ultimately psychological. Without trust we will see hoarding of the cash which will be very scarce in the absence of the credit that currently comprises the vast majority of the effective money supply. The combination of scarce cash and a very low velocity of money will be toxic.

Money is the lubricant in the economic engine and without enough of it that engine will seize up as it did in the 1930s, when farmers dumped milk they couldn't sell into ditches while others were starving for want of the money to buy food. There was plenty of everything except money, and without money, one cannot connect buyers and sellers.

Potential buyers will have no purchasing power as they will have lost access to credit and their ability to earn an income will be hit by spiking unemployment. Those who still have jobs will find that they have no bargaining power and there is therefore no wage support.

Sellers and producers will have no market and will themselves lose the means to purchase supplies or raw materials for the things they would like to produce.

If conditions remain frozen for any length of time, they will go out of business. The deeper the collapse, the more protracted the trough and the more difficult the eventual recovery.

...

Unemployment will go through the roof as the prospects for selling most goods and services decline dramatically. In the developed world we are nations of middle men - generally service economies where we make a living figuratively taking in each other's laundry.

Most of us produce relatively little. Even those who do will find almost no market for their exports, and those who could find buyers may not be able to send shipments as credit contraction prevents shippers from getting the letters of credit they need to ship goods. ...

Unfortunately middlemen are almost completely expendable, and the services of others are likely to become unaffordable for the majority very quickly. While there will be a huge surplus of labour, and the few who retain purchasing power will be able to hire anyone they want for very little, most people will have to do everything for themselves, as poor people have done throughout history and as most of the population of the world does now.

Not only will we lose access to the paid labour of others, but we will lose our virtual energy slaves as well. This will represent an enormous fall in the standard of living for the vast majority.

Wonderful, Wonderful København


Update: Rainforest treaty 'fatally flawed'

A vital safeguard to protect the world's rainforests from being cut down has been dropped from a global deforestation treaty due to be signed at the climate summit in Copenhagen in December.

Under proposals due to be ratified at the summit, countries which cut down rainforests and convert them to plantations of trees such as oil palms would still be able to classify the result as forest and could receive millions of dollars meant for preserving them. An earlier version of the text ruled out such a conversion but has been deleted, and the EU delegation - headed by Britain - has blocked its reinsertion.

Environmentalists say plantations are in no way a substitute for the lost natural forest in terms of wildlife, water production or, crucially, as a store of the carbon dioxide which is emitted into the atmosphere when forests are destroyed and intensifies climate change.

Read more »

Polluting Romania


Lacul Valiug On Flickr, Lake Valiug looks picturesque, but locals are dumping trash in the nearby woods to avoid collection fees.

The Polluted Danube Swine farming in Zimnicea and chemical plants in Svishtov pollute the waters of the Danube.

No way to treat a Lady's River Raul Doamnei, a tributary of the Argeş River in Romania. Named for the lady of Vlad Ţepeş who flung herself to death in the nearby Argeş. Works for Vidraru Dam redirects water to a 220 Mw hydroelectric plant reservoir, and the river frequently dries up in summer. No information as to whether this stream of plastic trash is constant or whether it cleans out trash after a dry summer.

Balloon Economy Dad says, "This was not a stunt!"


Even as the Dow rallies to 10,000, those in the real economy wish they were hiding in a closet. Meanwhile Alan Greenspan, the father of our balloon economy, appears to reconsider leaving such a highly inflatable situation essentially unsupervised. Baltimore's free City Paper looks past the stock reporting of the NY Times to remind us of the real situation:

Greenspan Changes His Mind

Alan Greenspan has changed his mind, proving finally that he has one. ...

"If they're too big to fail, they're too big," Greenspan said today. "In 1911 we broke up Standard Oil--so what happened? The individual parts became more valuable than the whole. Maybe that's what we need to do."

...

By not reminding us just what a credit default swap is, (NY Times reporter) Labaton forfeits his power to reveal what actually happened (and is still happening). Understanding how credit default swaps worked (and then didn't) tells us much about why Citi is failing, why AIG failed (but was propped up), and even, after a fashion, why Greenspan is reversing his stance on "too big to fail."

...

A credit default swap is an insurance product. Say you lend me $100,000 to buy a house, and I agree to pay you back in six years, with a 6 percent interest payment for those years based on a 30-year amortization, and a final balloon payment. For you, this is the equivalent of putting your $100,000 in a CD for 6 years at 6 percent.

Except, I'm not FDIC-insured.

In fact, I'm a very bad risk when compared to an FDIC-insured bank. This is one reason a bank CD pays, like, 2 percent these days instead of 6 percent.

So you really want to get a 6 percent return, or near that, but you really, really want to get your hundred-large back in 2015, even if I'm--as is statistically probable--in jail by then. Or on the lam.

Here's where a CDS comes in. For a small fee, my friend Vinny--er, I mean, "AIG"--will guarantee the $100,000 payment, plus 6 percent interest. You pay AIG a little off the top, say, 1 percent, and still make out with a 5 percent effective annual yield, with NO RISK.

What could go wrong?

OK, so now we see the problem. No one was checking to see if those big banks and insurance companies who issued the CDS--the AIGs of the world--had the dough to pay up if a lot of people like me defaulted. Keeping funds in reserve for such contingencies is one of the first rules of both banking and insurance. But with derivatives, it was not done, mainly because derivatives of all kinds are unregulated.

These instruments were unregulated on the theory, of which Greenspan was the chief proponent, that regulation would stifle innovation and wealth creation among the sophisticated players who dealt in derivatives. Even in the run-up to disaster, there was little attention paid to the issue of counterparty risk--that is, the possibility that the big issuers of these proto insurance policies would themselves be bankrupted by them.

Now, the regulations being contemplated today in congress so far do little to mitigate the risk that AIG will continue to act like my pal Vinny, who is as reckless and shiftless as me.

The reason for that is the too big to fail doctrine--which is what allowed AIG, Citi, Goldman, Lehman, and a few others to provide insurance without the necessary capital requirements. Imagine what you might do in their place: Knowing that if you ever went bankrupt, your debts would all be paid in full by taxpayers, how careful would you be about what bets you covered? And remember, every time you guarantee someone payment, you get money.

When you're right, you get paid. When you're wrong, you still get paid, and someone else pays on your behalf.

Now, the derivatives regulation bill is not designed to deal with the too big to fail doctrine, which has been enshrined as policy under the past two administrations.

Greenspan took a lot of hits for his unexamined faith in the unfettered, crook-rigged markets that delivered such unspeakable prosperity to so few over the past three decades. Now that he's examining things, he may finally be worth listening to.

Or not. My question these days is how to get out of a system that funnels my money to the rich..

Population Consumption Hunger


As U.S. and Other Wealthy Nations Slash Aid, UN Warns of "Silent Tsunami of Hunger" in Global Food Crisis

We turn now to what the United Nations World Food Program has called a silent tsunami of hunger. Its been described as the worst food crisis since the 1970s. According to the Food and Agricultural Organization, more than a billion people or one-sixth of the world's population go hungry every day. Last year alone 37 countries experienced riots over skyrocketing food prices.

But the world's richest nations have slashed their funding for food aid to their lowest levels in two decades. The World Food Program warned this week that more than 40 million people will have their food rations reduced or eliminated because of the drastic aid cuts. According to Josette Sheeran, the head of the World Food Program, wealthy nations "think the world food crisis is over, but in 80% of countries food prices are actually higher than one year ago."

For more on the food crisis and the related crisis in agriculture, we're joined now by award-winning Indian journalist, writer, and activist Devinder Sharma. He closely monitors how international agriculture, biotechnology, and trade policies negatively impact food security and farming communities in the global south in general and India in particular. Trained as an agricultural scientist, he is the author of "Gatt and India - The Politics of Agriculture;" "GATT to WTO: Seeds of Despair," and "In the Famine Trap."

Read more »

New Reserve Currency


Ickyma posted about the decline of the dollar yesterday, and today comes a report that a UN official has also suggested a new reserve currency:

UN calls for new reserve currency

Speaking at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Istanbul, UN undersecretary-general for economic and social affairs, Sha Zukang, said:

"Important progress in managing imbalances can be made by reducing the reserve currency country's 'privilege' to run external deficits in order to provide international liquidity," ... "It is timely to emphasise that such a system also creates a more equitable method of sharing the seigniorage derived from providing global liquidity."

But Luis Souza says talk of "Secret Discussions" is bunk:

A Change Coming to the World Monetary System?

There's nothing secret about the Khaleeji or about the currency swap agreements China is making with its closest trade partners. Even if the news really originated from Chinese officials, it should be taken more as pressure on the US than anything else. The only reason for these nations to work on their own is in case the US is unwilling to cooperate, which doesn't make much sense. Cooperating with the lender nations is the best way to avoid the dollar's collapse. The lender nations will possibly first de-peg their currencies from the dollar and peg them to the SDR (the IMF's Special Drawing Rights). This still leaves a lot of control for the US, given that the dollar still makes up more than 40% of the SDR. Afterwards the lender nations could slowly enter the SDR with small weights and then expand from there (the Khaleeji, the Real, the Ruble and the Yuan should be the first to enter the SDR).

Souza continues to what he sees as the deeper problem:

Going back to the SDR, kicking the problem upstairs can indeed deal with the dollar's expiration as world reserve currency. A new reserve currency system seems to be well on its way to development, similar in approach to the old Ecu. Such a development might make way for an orderly shift away from the dollar.

But as I wrote last time on this issue, there's more to this problem than simply finding a new reserve currency system. What Rickards seems not yet to be aware of is that the problems the US is facing today may soon become common to all other international players, even those adopting the SDR as reserve currency. What if there's no more growth, in physical terms?

If the flows of energy and matter to the economy fail to grow during an extended period of time, Central Banks will be caught between a rock and a hard place; they can either continue with present expansionist policies and be left powerless to the degradation of their currencies (and rise of precious metals) or they can limit the abstract currency supply and treat it essentially as a commodity currency. Whatever the option, in the long run, Central Banks will be dealing with limited supply currencies.

In the case of gold, Central Banks still have some options, like opening the Mints and mobilizing the dozens of tons of monetary jewelry worldwide into the bullion pool, thus effectively expanding supply (and even increasing velocity). But for the other precious metals this is not an option. Silver, for instance, may become a serious problem. Industrial usage depleted the world stock to the point that in weight terms, it is now down to less than a sixth of the world gold stock[1]; compounding that is the traditional lack of silver reserves at Central Banks. Silver is easy to falsify, having a density similar to that of lead, but in small bullion pieces it is still safe. With newer precious metals such as palladium or platinum the situation is similar. Platinum especially is even denser than gold and also impossible to falsify in practical terms.

The End of Growth may bring to an end a monetary system that existed during a brief period of time from a historical perspective--officially during the last four decades--in practice since WWII. It was fed by growth and in its turn fed growth itself, in a feedback loop that brought about the world of today--a world that tomorrow will be the past.

Fracking and Flammable Water


LIFE IN THE RED ZONE: Flammable Water in Fort Lupton, Colorado.

from Water Under Attack

No lie - the water from this guy's spigot catches fire. He said the same happens to his neighbor to the North. Local news found a lot of neighbors with the same problem.

"It's right in the middle of the crops that feed our country."

"What blows my mind is The Oil and Gas Conservation Commission. I thought they were there to work for the people. They're not there to work for the people. They are there to work and help the oil and gas companies. And I asked him who's there for the people? And he told me, 'Nobody. Call an attorney.' That's what they told me."

Her mother passed away, so Amy Goodman wasn't broadcasting today, but Democracy Now offered a pertinent discussion on Natural Gas drilling in the Marcellus Shale:

Environmental Battle Brews in New York over Natural Gas Drilling

Albert Appleton, Former commissioner of the New York City Department of Environmental Protection and former director of the New York City Water and Sewer System, warns that it only takes a small percentage of failures to contaminate water for drinking and nature. He suggests that NYC's vaunted clean water is at risk.

Living in the City


Morning in the city. The car alarm that was beeping ten minutes ago is back on.

Around 4 AM last night, in the street below my bedroom windows, some woman started yelling and cursing at someone else down there. I heard some people in my building yelling at her to STFU, and then her yelling back. Eventually I dozed off again. I live in Federal Hill, among numerous bars, restaurants and a parking garage. I prefer natural ventilation and have adapted to sleeping through a background noise of patrons arguing or reveling as they make their way to their cars or townhouses. My wife hasn't.

After three years of walking five quick blocks to the office, I'm moving nine miles away so I can swim in the mornings. I'll be biking and riding the light rail to work. I've been throwing things out as we prepare to move, but I remembered this morning that no one had set the trash bins out for collection last Wednesday, so they are already overflowing. We supposedly have a trash schedule, but the building's owners moved out two years ago, essentially leaving no one in charge. No one bothers to lock the bins, so passers-by stuff beer cans, pizza boxes, dog waste, whatever, in our bins. The city won't collect loose trash, so the bins just fill up with more and more loose, foul-smelling trash. Yes, I see rats at night.

Despite the problems, I've enjoyed living in such a walkable part of the city (WalkScore = 92). I like waking up later, not having a stressful commute and walking home for lunch. I like walking to everything, not having a car, not worrying about moving between parking spaces. My wife, OTOH, doesn't feel safe here, would rather drive than walk and feels trapped in the apartment. When I read New Urbanists arguing for denser cities, I am sympathetic, but I am aware of the practical complaints suburban-raised Americans will have with city life.

In his latest book, The Architecture of Community, Léon Krier argues for traditional walkable cities. He sees modern architecture as destructive of urban fabric. I've heard a local architect express the theory that a few buildings should be, "heroes" while most others should be, "good soldiers." Can modernist buildings be good soldiers?

Modern Problems

(Krier) begins with a rather provocative thought experiment:

"If, one day, for some mysterious reason, all the buildings, settlements, suburbs, and structures built after 1945--especially those commonly called 'modern'--vanished from the face of the earth, would we mourn their loss?"

"What if, instead, all of the pre-modern buildings--the ones we consider historic--disappeared? Would we weep more for them?"

... Krier contends that modernism, whatever its virtues in small scale, has been nothing but a disaster in larger scales--a force that has managed to sterilize cities aesthetically, ruin years of expertise in building trades, and lead planners and developers to compose cities in unsustainable ways.

...

Modern architecture and contemporary urban planning have grown up at a time of copious energy supplies, particularly in fossil energy. That energy supply is anomalous in history and quite possibly running out soon. So shouldn't we make cities that are more traditional in shape and size, which have survived centuries?

...

Whatever Krier's taste in building styles, his point about the structure and sustainability of cities is unassailable. Too many cities grow like cancers, spreading without planning, with various functional zones--residential, commercial, recreational--isolated from one another. Communities should be mixed from the start, growing by duplication, with the 10-minute walk being the measure of proper scale. (Forward-thinking cities like Portland have tried to plan around the 20-minute walk or bike ride.)

For now, Krier laments, we are wrapped up in celebrating green efforts only in high-profile individual buildings. "Sustainable development or city is a powerful myth with little reality," he writes, adding that the notion of sustainable planning exists only as hypothesis. "For the time being, the abuse of the term 'sustainable' erodes its social and political persuasiveness and postpones the advent of eventual solutions."

Witold Rybczynski also believes the sustainability movement has gone awry. He expresses what I noticed about the 2007 Solar Decathlon. All the examples were essentially rural or suburban houses.

The Green Case for Cities

Putting solar panels on the roofs doesn't change the essential fact that by any sensible measure, spread-out, low-rise buildings, with more foundations, walls, and roofs, have a larger carbon footprint than a high-rise office tower--even when the high-rise has no green features at all.

The problem in the sustainability campaign is that a basic truth has been lost, or at least concealed. Rather than trying to change behavior to actually reduce carbon emissions, politicians and entrepreneurs have sold greening to the public as a kind of accessorizing. Keep doing what you're doing, goes the message. Just add a solar panel, a wind turbine, a hybrid engine, whatever. But a solar-heated house in the burbs is still a house in the burbs, and if you have to drive to it, even in a Prius, it's hardly green.

Architectural journals and the Sunday supplements tout newfangled houses tricked out with rainwater-collection systems, solar arrays, and bamboo flooring. Yet any detached single-family house has more external walls and roof--and hence more heating loads in winter and cooling loads in summer--than a comparable attached townhouse, and each consumes more energy than an apartment in a multifamily building. Again, it doesn't really matter how many green features are present. A reasonably well-built and well-insulated multifamily building is inherently more sustainable than a detached house. Similarly, an old building on an urban site, adapted and reused, is greener than any new building on a newly developed site.

A Thoreau-like existence in the great outdoors isn't green. Density is green. Does this mean that we all have to live in Manhattan? Not necessarily. Cities such as Stockholm and Copenhagen are dense without being vertical. And closer to home is Montreal, where the predominant housing form is a three- or four-story walk-up. Walk-ups, which don't require elevators, can create a sufficient density--about 50 people per acre--to support public transit, walkability, and other urban amenities. Increasing an area's density requires changing zoning to allow smaller lots and compact buildings such as walk-ups and townhouses.

But one man's ceiling is another man's floor. There goes another car alarm.

Lucy got some splainin' to do


There was a great exchange on Let That Be Your Last Battlefield, an episode of Star Trek, the original series with Shatner, Nimoy, etc. While justifying his racial prejudice, Commissioner Bele, a half-white, half-black humanoid played by Frank Gorshin, sarcastically challenges the Federation's science.

"I once heard that on some of your planets, people believe they are descended from... apes."

Spock might have replied, "We believe that humans and apes share a common ancestor." But being only half-human, he more elegantly said:

"The actual theory is that all lifeforms evolved from the lower levels to the more advanced stages."

Today's announcement, fifteen years in the making, changes neither of those statements, but suggests that our common ancestor resembled man more than ape, and that great apes, currently unsuccessful competitors to humans, have diverged physically from primitive man more than we have. In other words, considering primitive humans to be ape-like Alley Oops isn't quite right.

WSJ: Fossils Shed New Light on Human Origins

After 15 years of rumors, researchers in the U.S. and Ethiopia on Thursday made public fossils from a 4.4-million-year-old human forebearer they say reveals that our earliest ancestors were more modern than scholars assumed and deepens the evolutionary gulf separating humankind from today's apes and chimpanzees.

The highlight of the extensive fossil trove is a female skeleton a million years older than the iconic bones of Lucy, the primitive female figure that has long symbolized humankind's beginnings.

...

"They are not what one would have predicted," said anthropologist Bernard Wood at George Washington University. Although the differences between humans, apes and chimps today are legion, we all shared a common ancestor six million years or so ago. These fossils suggest that creature-still undiscovered--resembled a chimp much less than researchers have always believed.

In fact, so many traits in chimps and apes today are missing in these early hominids that researchers now question the notion that modern chimps and apes embody vestiges of our primate past, retaining primitive traits once shared by our ancestors. "We all thought the ancestral animal would look more like a chimp," explained Yale University anthropologist Andrew Hill.

Instead, the new finds show that what seems most ancient about nonhuman primates today-such as canine fangs, long limbs with hooked fingers meant for swinging through trees and hands designed for knuckle-walking--may actually be the product of more recent development, the researchers said.

"It is the chimps and gorillas that have been evolving like crazy in terms of limbs and locomotion, not hominids," said Kent State University anthropologist Owen Lovejoy, a senior scientist on the research team. "We took a different tack. We went social."

Cost of Living Calculator


OK, you and your spouse have one child and bring home over $17,330 per year. According to the US Census Bureau's fifty-year-old formulas, you're above the poverty threshold. According to the Economic Policy Institute, the actual threshold between working poverty and making a living is probably twice what Census cites, varying by where you live.

EPI offers this Basic Family Budget Calculator, and while there are no figures for Parent supporting grown offspring, Single Woman supporting two cats, or Uneuthanized Man living in a shack, you can choose something close, plug in your area and see the variations.

Making ends meet on $21,834 a year

Where in the country can a family of four keep a roof over its head and food on the table for $22,000 a year, before taxes, and still having something left over for health care and transportation? In 2007, EPI took a detailed look at basic costs in different parts of the country and built the Basic Family Budget Calculator, which assembled the costs of basic housing, food, child care, transportation, health care, taxes, and other necessities in different regions of the country. Besides offering detailed data on how much costs vary across rural and urban areas and different geographic regions, the calculator shows that poverty thresholds are too low just about everywhere.

...

In examining different family budgets around the country, it is also worth noting that the federal minimum wage -- even after its July increase to $7.25 per hour -- equates to an annual salary of $14,500 per year based on a 2,000-hour work year, which is just barely above the 2008 poverty threshold of $14,051 for a family of two.

Of course, each family has its own unique set of expenses. Just as some may cut costs by sharing housing with relatives, others may face exceptionally steep costs in the form of gasoline and car maintenance for long commutes, or medical care for a special-needs child. While it would be impossible to account for all the variables affecting an individual family's housing, food, and other costs all around the country, the Family Budget Calculator attempts to get at the bare bones expenses. It estimates housing costs based on non-luxury, "privately-owned, decent, and safe rental housing" at the 40th percentile, or that which costs less than 60% of the rentals on the local market. Food cost estimates come from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's "low-cost" food plan. Average transportation costs are based on the National Household Travel Survey and consider only travel related to work and other non-social purposes such as essential errands.

I found that in Altoona, two parents and a child would have to make $38,330 per year, while Baltimore would be only marginally more expensive - $39,088 per year. I don't know where EPI's figures come from, and I'm only poor the week before payday, but for me, living in Baltimore has been waaay more expensive than Altoona.

Update: If we move to the nearby planned community of Columbia, MD, EPI says we'll need $53,702 per year to make it. That difference agrees more with my experience, and I do live and work in Federal Hill - an expensive neighborhood probably more comparable to Columbia than to most of Baltimore City.

Critics of the Census Bureau's existing methodology for calculating poverty thresholds note that it is based on an outdated formula that was put in place in the 1960s, and has not evolved with family budgets. Not only have overall costs gone up since then, but the portion of incomes spent on food, housing and other essentials has changed dramatically. This commentary notes that during the 1960s, the typical family spent a third of its budget on food, but today food consumes just one-seventh of its budget on food, with other essentials such as health care consuming much more. If that would seem to suggest that food has gotten cheaper, it also highlights the problem of calculating poverty as a multiple of food costs, under the formula that was established decades ago and is still used today. The Census Bureau acknowledges that because of this longstanding formula, it is no longer possible to say what share of a poverty-level income would go toward specific categories of consumption. Simply adjusting food costs for inflation over the past 40 years, in other words, would not be enough to keep the poverty threshold current.

Roman sans clef


Roman Polanski. I loved The Fearless Vampire Killers, Rosemary's Baby, Knife in the Water, Macbeth, Chinatown. Tess, not so much.

I was surprised, in turn, that he got away, stayed away for so long and that they caught him. But I'm really surprised by the weak arguments of supposed intelligentsia that he should be set free.

"My journal, 'La Règle du jeu,' is working in support of Roman Polanski and mobilizing writers and artists through the following petition:

Apprehended like a common terrorist Saturday evening, September 26, as he came to receive a prize for his entire body of work, Roman Polanski now sleeps in prison.

He risks extradition to the United States for an episode that happened years ago and whose principal plaintiff repeatedly and emphatically declares she has put it behind her and abandoned any wish for legal proceedings.

Seventy-six years old, a survivor of Nazism and of Stalinist persecutions in Poland, Roman Polanski risks spending the rest of his life in jail for deeds which would be beyond the statute-of-limitations in Europe.

We ask the Swiss courts to free him immediately and not to turn this ingenious filmmaker into a martyr of a politico-legal imbroglio that is unworthy of two democracies like Switzerland and the United States. Good sense, as well as honor, require it.

Bernard-Henri Lévy, Salman Rushdie, Milan Kundera, Pascal Bruckner, Neil Jordan, Isabelle Adjani, Arielle Dombasle, Isabelle Huppert, William Shawcross, Yamina Benguigui, Mike Nichols, Danièle Thompson, Diane von Furstenberg, Claude Lanzmann, Paul Auster

Update: Far longer list here including Woody Allen (heh), Buck Henry, John Landis, David Lynch, Tilda Swinton and a lot of French names.

Have they also written to support Phillip Garrido?

Donal

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  • Website: www.donalfagan.com
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