Democrat angst seems to be building over the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, but needlessly so.  Any Republican optimism about these elections signalling a change in forturnes is hugely misplaced.  The off-cycle Dem wins in both virginia and New Jersey governor elections in 2005 turned out to be bellweathers for the 2006 Blue Wave.  Even if (I'd say when) the GOP takes both the NJ and VA governorships this fall, that doesn't mean in any way Republicans are coming back.  Unlike 2005, these two elections are purely local.

The underlying dynamics of a rapidly rotting Republican party had a lot to do with the 2005 elections, especially in Virginia where Gov. Kaine's opponent made a grave mistake with a "Hitler ad" on TV.  Devout Catholic Tim Kaine said he would enforce but was opposed to the death penalty on religious grounds and, when asked, said that his position would hypothetically apply to Hitler.  The ad was a huge mistake, unnecessarily displaying GOP attack dog politics at a time when party credibility was in a national nosedive and the GOP candidate had a huge lead.  Right after that ad, the polls steadily reversed until Kaine, Lt. Gov. to the popular Mark Wagner, made up a deficit similar to what Creigh Deeds faces now and narrowly won. Bob McDonnell won't make that kind of error, and, at best, Virginia is still a swing state, probably ready to go back to a Republican governor after eight years with the Democrats.  But the demographics of Virginia continue to trend blue and that's not changing any time soon.

New Jersey hates its Democrats until they get re-elected, but the state has been an economic wasteland.  It's probably unfair to John Corzine who's greatest failure is not being a miracle worker.  The organ-trafficking scandal swept up local Dems, but that's all NJ has locally, so I don't think it's a factor.  There's just a lot of angry voters in New Jersey right now and Corzine is a convenient target. 

If the Dems retain either state, it's New Jersey, but if they lose both, it's not because of any underlying momentum swing against Democrats generally.  That won't keep Republicans from trying to make a sweep into some kind of self-fulfilling prophecy, but it's just not in the cards.  Democrats have been remarkably scandal-free since November, keeping their promises (or at least attempting to), and overall, things are indeed getting better thanks to federal action and the natural business cycle.

There is nothing for the GOP to leverage in 2010 no matter how many times Michael Steele says "We're back baby!" (what an idiot; but I digress). The media will also be all over the wins in NJ and VA if they happen, simply because there won't be that much to talk about elsewhere in politics.  But ignore all of that -- positive change is just not there for the Party of Lincoln in 2010 no matter what happens on the Atlantic Coast in 2005.  But this is:

My GOP: Too old, too white to win
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/07/20/gop_math/

In the future, we will spell "GOP" with five letters: "S-O-U-T-H".