Has anyone here actually looked at the accuracy of these predictions? In 2007, the Mets missed the playoffs in only *17* of 10000 simulated pennant runs. In other words, according to "the algorithm" - McCain's chances are 10 times better than the 2007 Phillies' chances of winning the NL East were. We know how that ended. In 2008, the Mets were offered an up to 92% chance of making the playoffs. We know how that ended. And at the beginning of the 2008 playoffs, The Phillies were offered only a 5.02% chance of winning the World Series. McCain is currently sitting at 6+% in the 538 simulations. We know how that ended.
What have we learned? Do not trust Nate Silver on anything related to Pennsylvania, ever. PA goes to McCain. The rest of my electoral map after the jump...
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Obama in a squeaker - 271-267. Murtha costs Obama PA, and
pollsters dramatically undercounted older votes (who always vote) in
VA, NC and FL. Georgia appears to go Obama's way but massive numbers of
ballots are thrown out. Arizona and Nevada aren't close. Still, Obama
wins!
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