My Prediction
My prediction after the jump, but first a word of warning to the 538.com addicts out there... much has been made of the vaunted algorithm honed over many baseball seasons, &c &c.
Has anyone here actually looked at the accuracy of these predictions? In 2007, the Mets missed the playoffs in only *17* of 10000 simulated pennant runs. In other words, according to "the algorithm" - McCain's chances are 10 times better than the 2007 Phillies' chances of winning the NL East were. We know how that ended. In 2008, the Mets were offered an up to 92% chance of making the playoffs. We know how that ended. And at the beginning of the 2008 playoffs, The Phillies were offered only a 5.02% chance of winning the World Series. McCain is currently sitting at 6+% in the 538 simulations. We know how that ended.
What have we learned? Do not trust Nate Silver on anything related to Pennsylvania, ever. PA goes to McCain. The rest of my electoral map after the jump...
Has anyone here actually looked at the accuracy of these predictions? In 2007, the Mets missed the playoffs in only *17* of 10000 simulated pennant runs. In other words, according to "the algorithm" - McCain's chances are 10 times better than the 2007 Phillies' chances of winning the NL East were. We know how that ended. In 2008, the Mets were offered an up to 92% chance of making the playoffs. We know how that ended. And at the beginning of the 2008 playoffs, The Phillies were offered only a 5.02% chance of winning the World Series. McCain is currently sitting at 6+% in the 538 simulations. We know how that ended.
What have we learned? Do not trust Nate Silver on anything related to Pennsylvania, ever. PA goes to McCain. The rest of my electoral map after the jump...
Obama in a squeaker - 271-267. Murtha costs Obama PA, and
pollsters dramatically undercounted older votes (who always vote) in
VA, NC and FL. Georgia appears to go Obama's way but massive numbers of
ballots are thrown out. Arizona and Nevada aren't close. Still, Obama
wins!
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I live in PA and my children and I were out doing door-to-door GOTV for about 5 hours yesterday. I live in a county that went to Hillary in the primaries, and I'm feeling confident about Obama's prospects here tomorrow.
While McCain is playing to conservatives in the northern and western areas of the state, I don't think those numbers will compete with Philly and its suburbs.
November 3, 2008 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Man you are going to look horribly wrong after Tuesday. Change your methodology after then, ok?
November 3, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is a map from a liberal afraid to get his hopes up but knowing that predicting a McCain win would be unrealistically pessimistic. ;)
November 3, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hear, hear!
November 3, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
My analysis of DJacobs: You mean well, but you tend towards anal-retentiveness. Loosen up, my friend, live a little, go out on that limb.
And speaking as a Statistiscian, Nate does, indeed, know his shit.
Could McCain take PA? Sure. But, it's more likely that it's going to Obama. I'd turn that State blue. And NH, too.
November 3, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for commenting. I will follow you using TPM's social media tools so that I can continue to benefit from these insights!
November 4, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for commenting. I will follow you using TPM's social media tools so that I can continue to benefit from these insights!
November 4, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Taeggan Goddard's Pennsylvania Head Fake strategy is fascinating. I pray it's true and that the Dems were so astute.
November 15, 2008 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink