Regarding my earlier prediction, I would like to officially apologize to the state of Pennsylvania, and especially it's citizens for my miscalculation. Once deadspin picked up the similar sentiment, I should have known how wrong I was. I would especially like to apologize to first time voters, recent citizens and most especially to lifetime Republican voter Americo Monteiro, who previously had not imagined such a vote possible.

My prediction after the jump, but first a word of warning to the 538.com addicts out there... much has been made of the vaunted algorithm honed over many baseball seasons, &c &c. 

Has anyone here actually looked at the accuracy of these predictions? In 2007, the Mets missed the playoffs in only *17* of 10000 simulated pennant runs. In other words, according to "the algorithm" - McCain's chances are 10 times  better than the 2007 Phillies' chances of winning the NL East were. We know how that ended. In 2008, the Mets were offered an up to 92% chance of making the playoffs. We know how that ended. And at the beginning of the 2008 playoffs, The Phillies were offered only a 5.02% chance of winning the World Series. McCain is currently sitting at 6+% in the 538 simulations. We know how that ended.

What have we learned? Do not trust Nate Silver on anything related to Pennsylvania, ever. PA goes to McCain. The rest of my electoral map after the jump...

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I'm enjoying these tools.