« January 25, 2009 - January 31, 2009 | Home | February 8, 2009 - February 14, 2009 »

Week of February 1, 2009 - February 7, 2009

Going to Bat for Manufacturing


So let's see, our manufacturing sector increases amount of goods produced an incredible 400% over the last 10 years, while cost of goods rises only half that of foreign imports. But we can't consult and work with the manufacturing sector on the bailout because it's too much tied to labor unions?

Oh sorry, no, it's because our manufacturing sector is now highly Chinese. We've created this huge trading partner than now produces $312 billion of our goods annually, and happens to hold lots of Xerox/photo replicas/mimeographs/mashups (depending on your age) of our currency, which is why we have to treat them like pariah in our time of dying. But the fact that they perform much cheaper and their costs to us rise much slower than our other foreign suppliers buys them no love.

What would we do if all our trading partners were as greedy as the Chinese? What if the Chinese started fighting for the high price sector rather than bottom feeding? Oh wait, the EU sells us $340 billion worth of goods & services a year, and you can bet those aren't the cheap knockoffs.

So we're frantically worried about China making stuff we don't want to bother with anymore, while not worried about the EU competing with our top margin sellers. Why is that? Well, part is simply racism - we like European faces more than Asian faces, even though we've calmly accepted Japanese in cars and electronics by now. (Doesn't hurt that the Japanese were so incompetent in their own stimulus efforts over the last 1 1/2 decades - caveat US-tor). But it also helps that the US & the EU have relatively more similar systems, that there's more trust in behavior and better recourse in case of problems.

Which also means that in this crisis time there's much more to be gained by working it out with China, both in terms of coordinating bailouts and stimulus, figuring out most effective ways to restructure Chinese & US finance at the same time (a year ago we wanted Chinese banks to be like ours - fancy that), plan together ways to improve recovery in the quickest time possible to salvage areas like environmental and judicial reforms. Because countries under heavy economic duress are tons less likely to pay obeisance to human rights, personal property, pollution cleanup, and you can short those odds even more with China.

And then there's simply the fact that we've never quite accepted that our girlfriend of convenience has become our de facto wife - sharing bank accounts, car, mortgage, It'd be easier if she weren't paying a good chunk of the bills, which we never admit to the guys at the bar without a good deal of squirming. Whenever they get too close to, "Why?" we always answer a bit indirectly with a shrug of the shoulders and a "You know" as if they actually knew. Which of course they do because they have the same kind of "girlfriend of convenience" as well. All acting like we married the LL.D. co-ed who aced mergers & acquisitions, when it's really the factory girls who we pick up at the gate at 4:30 each afternoon.

But at some point we've got to grow up, face the music, admit that times are tough and that we all need to work together, realistically, in tune. We can't talk about world economic justice while dissing 1/5 the world's population and our 3rd biggest trading partner (hey you Canucks, get off our lawn). We can up it to 2/5 the world's population if we include our sometime lover, India.

So imagine GM telling the guys on the factory floor to go to hell just because there are tough times in the front office. Oh wait, they just did. Alright, but at least they talked, and worked out something. I remember some time ago, Prince did a song called "Ronnie talk to Russia", back in his early really edgy days. Perhaps he can prematurely re-release (Oh Sister, did I really say that?) his 30-year anniversary version as "Barry talk to China".

And while Barry's at it, he can talk to YouTube - seems like Prince is embargoed except for "BatDance" - too batty for my tastes and we can't run a recovery on that shit - an aging Batmobile won't run on bat guano or fuel cells - imagine the crappy gas mileage. In the Dark Knight of the Soul, we need all the friends we can get, especially the Dark Prince, and right now we seem to be so party over, oops, out of time.

[Dedicated to DJ, #1 Prince fan]


YEAAHHHAARRRGGHHH!!! Howard Dean for HHS!!!


Yep, write Obama, call the White House, tell them Des sent you, sure that'll bump you to the front of the line.

Want a snake like Daschle "changing" health care? Or a "crossover" Republican like Gregg who'll be at Commerce? Or a pretty-boy self-promoting talking head like Gupta more attuned to TV ratings and spouting pharma company wisdow than medical science?

Or someone who actually helped revive the Democratic party through his 50 state efforts the last two elections, and who actually is a doctor and ran his state effectively and economically?

So give it up for Dr. Dean. Let me hear you say YEAAHHHAARRRGGHHH!!! A little louder, so CNN can mix it up in the audio track. Is there a Doctor in the (White) House?

Maverick Redux: Support Your Local StockMaker


Judging from some of the comments on my previous Maverick post, there's a curious American psychology at work. Let's imagine this - 2001-2, Cisco stock plunges, WorldCom goes bankrupt. No government bailout. What about those Cisco salesmen/women that were doing a great job, but well, Cisco had to cut its workforce by thousands, forcing them to go somewhere else. Not because Cisco or they themselves did something wrong really - because the market ran into a roadblock, a bit because of over-optimistic planning, a bit because of uncertainty of when and how quickly the dotcom boom would end. (We've known there was a housing bubble since the late 90's, continued in part because of the dotcom crash - but a company can't just bet bear for 10 years without losing out as well). So where was all that support for $60K IT employees at that time? Many of them got to live in their cars when their high priced Silicon Valley/San Francisco loft accomodation was no longer affordable to the unemployed. What about the good managers & designers and CEO's who just hit a tsunami? Hasta la vista, you can blog about it.

Scroll forward to 2009. Wall Street, mortgage banks, etc., belly up. Along comes the government, to save people their jobs. Now fancy this - that's not enough for some "progressives". We're obligated to save people their bonuses even if they were selling crap. It's not enough that they keep their base salary and live off their crap bonuses from the last 8 years. Nope, unlike IT employees or farmers or auto workers, we as a country are a sucker for the illusion that Wall Street and Finance jobs are sacred. Ohmygod, if we don't save these peoples' bonuses, they might go somewhere else!!! Well, why the fuck not? If AIG is so screwed up, why shouldn't their best and their brightest go to some better run company? Or skip to a different industry (green technology, anyone?). Let AIG shrink to 1/3 its size if there are competitors left - we're trying to avoid meltdown, not maintain size and competitiveness. Remember when Arthur Anderson got gobbled up in a flash? How about BoA buying Merrill Lynch? Think BoA is going to be maintaining high bonuses for mid-level employees? Rather doubtful - clock starts over, and if we keep you, you better prove yourself in this Brave New World. Many people drifted to this industry because you get paid a lot for not knowing very much - a little like the IT industry in 1998. And the proper result? Tough titty said the kitty. Market forces have their day, and while we might want to make the crash landing a little softer and safer, I didn't see lounge chairs rolling out to those passengers in New York Harbor.

I can tell you I've spent a lot of time taking risks on iffy products and solutions, and no one guaranteed my income through failure or came in to take the pain out of the trough. Not even now as the trough grows bigger. So when the Dark Angel comes in to lop off last year's bonus, they should count their goddamn lucky stars that it didn't include their job like so many other people lose. Not have the taxpayer come in and try to maintain industry parity for them. This is a safety net, a lucky one at that ("too big to fail"), not a jobs works program. Let them eat sponge cake, let 'em live on Raman noodles and Mountain Dew, the breakfast of champions for budding entrepreneurs and poor students. And maybe if they're worth something, they'll get out there to earn that new bonus to replace the one they didn't get last year. That's the American Spirit, take a hit, shake it off and keep on driving, not fall back and punt or take a breather on the bench. Well, okay, it's the American Spirit I'd like to see, and certainly the one I'd rather pay for.

So yeah, if Claire McCaskill proposes a $400K pay cap for indigent companies, I'm for. If someone wants to add an exemption where they can take options for earnings growth (with a proper accounting firm checking the books), sure, that's pay for performance. If no one wants to work for those odds, well, that gives you an idea the industry need restructuring more than this wave of bailouts is doing.  
« January 25, 2009 - January 31, 2009 | Home | February 8, 2009 - February 14, 2009 »

Desidero

user-pic

Following: 4
Followers: 58

Posts
Comments & Recommends


Favorites

  • Favorite Books Ack, Books? Who reads books? A boy and his dog, note the graphic.

All Reader Posts
How to use myTPM

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address