If Barack Obama keeps his campaign pledge to withdraw all combat troops within 16 months, that could still leave over 2/3 of the troops there, roughly 100,000. How's that? They're not combat troops, they're "service and support troops". But don't worry, Washington Whispers are that after 2011 this will only be 30,000 to 50,000, with a few sourpusses claiming more like 70,000.

Note that not all combat troops would have to leave, as they could be "re-missioned" with service and support titles. Troop levels today are higher than at the start of the now-finished surge exactly because of these numbers.

Nevertheless, Obama's intent on Day 1 is to end the war "responsibly, deliberately, but decisively". Not that withdrawn combat troops would be coming home - many would be redirected to Afghanistan. And Obama's #1 priority contains actually 2 or 3 priorities depending on how you count - to keep our troops safe in the transition, to make sure the Iraqi people are well-served by their government, and the Iraqi government is taking increased responsibility for their security.

But Obama is not grandstanding - he plans on listening to his advisors, and Gates makes clear, the question is now "how quick and how low". Which acknowledging that means a decrease, a skeptic might rephrase this, "how slow and how little". We went down that road in the early 70's though with a much better supplied opposition. I can't figure out why this withdrawal should take more time.

And I'm still a bit puzzled. I supported our invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, but not because it was run by primitives blowing up Buddhist treasures or keeping girls out of school, but because they were harboring and in all practice helping Al Qaeda attack us. Now that that's out of the way, and we'll certainly pre-emptively take out Al Qaeda where they pop up obviously, I don't think our #1 foreign policy is policing the Hindukush for some unobvious goal. Nor is capturing Bin Laden an important task unless it gives a real security benefit or a PR victory worth the cost. (Futilely trying to take Stalingrad because of its name remains one of the most classic military blunders of all time).

Anyway, Obama's chosen his team and he'll be listening to them. I hope I like what he hears.