You are counting on 8 long years of being puzzled? What? Because you think you have better political instincts than the long shot that just pulled off the upset victory of all time? When you're feeling puzzled during the next 8 years, just remember the last 8 years, and maybe some pieces will fall in place. Sheesh.

I would hope it's not because of a fear of losing political capital or looking partisan that he's not going, or even because of a lack of time. I've got two theories:

(1) He's doing his usual basketball politics: fake right, then go left. I.e., he might still go yet, and because everyone's been talking about how he's not going (but he's said no such thing), it generates a nice news cycle or two. Free press. Full court press, at that.

(2) As Chris Brown suggests above, Martin doesn't think Obama's appearance would be helpful. After all, Obama didn't carry Georgia.

As for him risking political capital, I think that's a very short-sighted way of looking at it. The risk of temporarily losing political capital (who'd really remember this loss even a year from now?) versus the reward of getting another Senate seat seems to heavily favor taking a chance, if it's thought to be helpful.

I don't want the media to turn this into a Obama v. Palin runoff. Next thing you know they will be comparing their appearances to what might happen in 2012! Yes, I think the media is that stupid.

Maybe it's excessive cautiousness on the part of the Obama camp. Concern that if he went now (or last week), it would be portrayed as "Obama, in a sharp partisan shift, ignores economic crisis to campaign for a Democrat", the sort of press coverage that would be unhelpful to the message they seem to have settled on (it's all about competence, not ideology) while being very helpful to Republicans in helping to set a frame for the incoming administration.

If Martin still lost, in spite of Obama's appearance, then the talking doodleheads would earnestly discuss whether "Obama was losing his support among Dems...".

The Obama camp would have to spend time to recapture the story, and perhaps the possibility of a 59th Dem vote in the Senate isn't worth the cost.

I tend to think it's concern over the media attention that is probably driving this decision.

Oh, Des is probably right. The person many of us supported and worked for, and canvassed and made phone calls for, probably is just what she says:

My guess is Obama either doesn’t want to look partisan in time of a meltdown and/or doesn’t want to own a defeat if Martin can’t pull from behind. Or maybe for some reason he thinks he wouldn’t help.

---Or maybe he is who we thought he was; maybe he is who we voted for, and is doing his best to hold the country together and do what he can for Martin (considering that he is running in Georgia - a state Obama lost). Maybe he is smarter than some of us, and maybe he knows exactly what he is doing.

Oh, no. Des is probably right. Obama is going to let us all down. After all, he has an x and a y chromosome.

This just sounds like a load of overly-cautious bollocks to me.

Obama's gonna lead us up against a Depression, end two wars, lower the rising seas... and he can't go to Georgia?

All this finessing about how we mustn't rile up the racist vote? Don't you think Palin & co are gonna pump up "their guys"?

Don't you think seeing a black President-Elect might actually excite a few people in Ga., boost their confidence in change?

Mustn't "spend" a penny of that hard-earned political capital? Sorry kids, that stuff melts FAST after Jan 20th, so Obama's gonna have to know how to create some coin on the fly.

If O wins, he gets more help in the Senate, and outs out a hell of a warning to the GOP. Cross me & I'll help take you down.

If he loses, so what? We could spin that a dozen ways, and it's not like Inauguration isn't gonna hand Obama a full sack of goodwill. Because the powers-that-be NEED him to succeed. We could just say he had other things to focus on, so couldn't campaign more than the one day, for starters.

I say, suck it up, and march the hell in there. You won. Be confident. Show confidence. That's what turning the economy around is gonna be all about.

Piffle, I say! PIFFLE on the pusillanimous!!! ;-)

I know I'm just spitting in the wind, here, but Obama knows what he's doing.

He's riding a wave of popular will, based in part on the fact that he's fresh from winning an election. Getting deeply involved in an election you are likely to *lose* is not a good idea one month before you take office. Fritters away the appearance of a mandate.

Qv. Bill C., Wyche Fowler, '92 -- similar situation.

Some background I'd forgotten when I wrote this, back from those halcyon but short-lived Ned Lamont days:

Barack Obama Quite possibly the biggest disappointment ... period.

While on his book tour, he was in NYC one day, had a scheduled day off, and appeared in Massachusetts the following day. Yet he couldn't make time to stop in the state between the two on his day off. We made it explicitly clear he was the single senator we wanted in the state above all others.

He declined.

Eventually, we asked Senator Obama to send out an email for the campaign to his Connecticut list. We created a culture in which emails became news (much like we did with the blogs in the primary). They made it entirely clear that he would basically not even mention Joe Lieberman's name in the email, let alone take him to task for his unfortunate position on the war in Iraq. This was disappointing, but I wasn't going to be spiteful. They sent the email, and as I hoped, the press came calling. Our Press Secretary, Eddie Vale, was asked how many people the email went to. He looked on the back-end of the website and saw the number of click-throughs to the landing page I created. He answered "about 5,000." Within minutes of the Associated Press piece going on the wire, I received several phone calls from Obama staff. They were none to pleased about the 5,000 number. Essentially, Obama could be seen as helping, but not helping THAT much. His staff apparently made it clear that the email only went out to 225 people in Connecticut. That's it. The next day we were subject to a correction in the papers and ridicule from Lieberman's campaign and corners of the right-wing blogosphere.

It's also important to note that Obama's email came only after a tremendous amount of pressure built up from portions of various online communities who "threatened" in behind-the-scenes conversations and open discussions online that support for Lamont would be viewed as a part of a "presidential checklist."

Everyone should also know that Robert Gibbs, part of the group that ran the infamous Dean/Osama ad during Iowa 2004, is now Barack Obama's Communications Director.

For those questioning whether 5000 was accurate, Kos explains:

So why were there 5,000 clickthroughs? Because Atrios got a copy of the email and linked to the landing page, inflating the number of people who saw that page. Obama was pressured into "helping" Ned Lamont, but that help took the form of an email sent to a piddling 225 people. Such help...

Them Internets, they have memories. I imagine Obama does too.

You know what, Des? You're right. The guy's a complete failure.

We really should start the recall campaign right now.