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Female Voting & Exit Polls - Is This Accurate?
I was looking at MSNBC's figures on exit polls as
a followup on an earlier post (Women Not Counted Out)
on high female support for Obama in early voting.
What I don't know is if exit polls reflect the approximate
percentage of the gender of voters.
If so, I get Obama's support in a few interesting states at:
Georgia - 60.9% female
North Carolina - 58.9% female
Indiana - 55.5% female
Missouri - 55.5% female
In other states (like Florida or Ohio for example), the gender balance
is much closer. Am I interpreting this accurately?
Also Chris Bowers at OpenLeft notes that he managed to put together quite
accurate election projections based on easily available public information.
A good step for transparency in elections and understanding the system &
wishes of voters. (I.e. we no longer have to rely on pundits & media spin to predict
which way the electorate's going)
a followup on an earlier post (Women Not Counted Out)
on high female support for Obama in early voting.
What I don't know is if exit polls reflect the approximate
percentage of the gender of voters.
If so, I get Obama's support in a few interesting states at:
Georgia - 60.9% female
North Carolina - 58.9% female
Indiana - 55.5% female
Missouri - 55.5% female
In other states (like Florida or Ohio for example), the gender balance
is much closer. Am I interpreting this accurately?
Also Chris Bowers at OpenLeft notes that he managed to put together quite
accurate election projections based on easily available public information.
A good step for transparency in elections and understanding the system &
wishes of voters. (I.e. we no longer have to rely on pundits & media spin to predict
which way the electorate's going)
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It does appear there may be some error in your interpretation. It is true that women split somewhat more closely in Florida (approximately 52-47 Obama/McCain) - but then so did men in Florida. Hence, the reason why the state was hotly contested, no?
Ohio women were something like 54-44 Obama/McCain. This is not at all close by presidential election standards, and very much consistent with the female vote in the other states you cite.
In the data I have, Missouri has the closest split of the female vote in these states. 51-48, with 1% refusing to answer, and I would bet you can guess for whom the refusals likely voted.
November 5, 2008 8:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you missed what I was saying.
Of Obama's supporters in Georgia for a high example, almost 61% are women.
That's not saying that 61% of women voted for Obama.
Perhaps the reason Florida was hotly contested was lower female turnout than in other states. Residual PUMA/senior female anger or from not counting the Dem primary? Don't know, looking for clues, but right now the internets are a bit slow, so....
November 5, 2008 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it just means that in Georgia, for example, more women than men voted. I don't think that is the type of data you need, you need to know: of the registered voters in Florida, how many were women?
btw: I just read a bit ago that Florida had a record breaking 83% voter turnout.
November 5, 2008 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
oops, Of the registered voters THAT VOTED in Florida, how many were women?
Then if 100,000 women are registered to vote in Florida and only 49% voted---what is the reason? You have amunition!
November 5, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Understood.
Perhaps I am somehow misunderstanding you. Please provide some details concerning the equations you use to reach this conclusion:
Also, just to confirm - I am using the Mitofsky-Edison data. You?
November 5, 2008 9:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just using the MSNBC exit polls I reference above, understanding they're not the best.
Simple equation:
(F for Obama x %F vote)/
(F for Obama x %F vote) + (M for Obama x %M vote)
If the %F & %M vote approximates the actual, and if the sampling is unbiased enough, then it should give the percentage of Obama supporters that are female.
November 5, 2008 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink