All this delay due to health care has pushed back the
sausage budget making process for 2010. Trying to pass a jobs bill will push it back even more. It seems to me that using the budget to create jobs would kill two birds with one stone and quicken the pace of legislation. The question then becomes, how could the budget be used to create jobs and fix the economy?
I would first adopt a modified idea from
Mark Cuban to take money from Wall Street and give it to Main Street.
Some of our politicians are suggesting .025pct.
There really is no reason not to do it either way. Spreads have
narrowed in the past several years to pennies from nickels, dimes and
quarters. So we know that the market can operate with the wider
spreads. Historically spreads are the profit margin of market makers.
Well in this era, who is a bigger market maker than the US Treasury ?
They are providing liquidity at every corner, so why shouldn't they
(we) get paid for it ?
snip
Of course the tax will be paid for by those of us who are buying
and selling stocks. So what. Here is the reality. If you are a true
investor. Someone who wants to own a share of stock in a company you
believe in, then its an amount that is not going to impact your
investment decision making process.
If you are a professional trader or an institutional trader that
trades continuously, then it may impact your decision making process,
but only to the point of reducing your returns by a minimal amount. Its
not going to change your inclination to trade. If you make 9.9pct
instead of 10pct, you aren't going to stop trading.
Whats the economic impact ?
If the NYSE, Nasdaq, Amex and OTC are trading 2 Billion shares a
day, thats $ 200 Million Dollars PER DAY. If there are 260 trading days
a year. Thats about 52 Billion dollars a year.
Thats real money.
The new tax has two impacts. It taxes the most prolific traders at a higher rate than you or I. The prolific traders tend to have more money than you or I too. This makes it a progressive tax.
In addition, traders won't be able to hyper trade and it would slow down the creation of bubbles.Trader behavior would change to reflect the new paradigm and begin to invest in markets instead of just speculate. This is one way to prevent another market meltdown. This should fit one of Dylan Ratigan's criteria to fixing the financial sector.
3. Enact a tax-code to encourage long-term investment and discourage short-term profit. Fortunes should not be made in minutes but over years through the creation of value to society.
As long as the easiest way for a man or woman to make money is to
spend their day clicking for dollars, why would they bother doing all
the work of investing in the long-term economic development of private
business in America? Tax code in general should encourage investment,
jobs, and innovation in America and discourage idle speculation as the
easiest way for a college kid to get rich. There are sensible ways to
use tax policy to encourage this that do not hamper liquidity.
A Democratic bill being
written is planning on using half of the extra $150B to reduce the deficit and the other half is being put towards job creation. Mark Cuban suggests using the extra revenue to offset a repeal of the payroll tax for companies with 25 employees or less. Obviously you would have to ensure companies weren't gaming the system to ensure one company with 50 employees couldn't just split into two to avoid the tax.
This would be difficult to enforce and I'm not sure the new tax money would cover it. There are
approximately 10.6M self-employed workers making an average $35,357 per year and removing the payroll tax for both Medicare and Social Security would be a 15% tax break for those individuals would be $56.2B (35.357 x .15 x 10.6M). According to census data taken from
2004, there are 21.2M employees working for firms with less than 20 employees. If you reduce the payroll tax required to be paid by the employer on those firms, it would cost $53.5B ((.062 SS tax + .0145 Medicare tax) * 33K average salary * 21.2M). So about $109.7B would cover these companies with 20 employees or less in 2004. Assuming the numbers went up $150B (from the article) sounds about right.
Of course tax cuts aren't the best way to create jobs. Spending does create a better multiplier affect than tax cuts. The advantage of tax cutting is the speed. The stimulus money has still yet to be spent and a light rail system yet to be built.
In addition to the light rail between cities, the US should commit to building a mass transit system in each major city. Funding for this kind of project in multiple states will not be cheap. The stimulus added $8B to high speed rail funding with Obama asking for an additional $1B annually. The Bush Tax cuts will
cost about $1.7B this year. In addition, adding a
millionaires bracket to the tax code that adjusted with inflation would produce approximately the same amount of revenue. One or both could be used to prime the mass transit pump.
Adding a new tax bracket for super high earners and lowering payroll taxes would be exactly the
opposite of Reagan. I view that as a good thing.
Mr. Reagan's second tax increase was also motivated by a sense of
responsibility or at least that's the way it seemed at the
time. I'm referring to the Social Security Reform Act of 1983, which
followed the recommendations of a commission led by Alan Greenspan. Its
key provision was an increase in the payroll tax that pays for Social
Security and Medicare hospital insurance.
For many middle-
and low-income families, this tax increase more than undid any gains
from Mr. Reagan's income tax cuts. In 1980, according to Congressional
Budget Office estimates, middle-income families with children paid 8.2
percent of their income in income taxes, and 9.5 percent in payroll
taxes. By 1988 the income tax share was down to 6.6 percent but the payroll tax share was up to 11.8 percent, and the combined
burden was up, not down.
Indeed, undoing the Regan tax changes (he raised and lowered taxes) would restore a progressive taxation to the US tax system. Ending the supply-side hold on the tax code would go along way toward fixing the broken economy. In addition, the new Wall Street tax will slow if not end stock market bubbles and prevent the next Great Recession.