Fair or Smart? What Will the Supers Really Do?


There's nothing fair about the primary process. It's only a way for the DNC to figure out who will win against a Republican in the GE. Our votes and caucuses are merely our opinions in the primaries—opinions that weigh in only as a way to determine which Democrat can win the GE. Fair is not what the DNC is after; it is after the White House. This is politics, folks. (And just so this is clear, the DNC are the Superdelegates.)

Once a candidate is nominated, the DNC gets behind them 100%, and will spin and spin to the Democrats of this land until anyone who was against this candidate will come around to at least vote for them over the Republican. The losing candidate in this election is also a Superdelegate, so they, too, will get 100% behind the winner, no matter how contentious this contest has been. That is because it is in their best interest to see a Democrat in the White House, even if it is their arch rival.

Our votes and caucuses show the DNC several things, all of which they consider before choosing the nominee:

It shows them who comes out and actually votes, which is really important because that's the way the GE is run. If one candidate wins the votes, but the other wins the caucus, the result of the votes are going to carry more weight. It doesn't matter that Florida and Michigan delegates won't count; what matters is what the vote showed. Even though the people of those states believed their votes wouldn't count, in reality, the fact that they still came out in large numbers tells the DNC what they will do in the GE. So in essence, their votes do weigh in, even if their delegates don't. Remember, this is not about fair. It is about beating the Republican in the GE.

It shows them which states a candidate is likely to win over the Republican. If one candidate carries the states with high Electoral votes, that will carry more weight than delegate counts. It's not fair, but it's legal, and it's the way the system is set up.

The delegates only matter if there is a strong and obvious difference, such as with the Republicans this year. McCain's lead was overwhelming. Even so, Huckabee stuck with it because he knew that the RNC was not thrilled with McCain as the Republican nominee. But because there was such an obvious difference, the RNC knew that the GE votes would be much stronger for McCain.

Unfortunately, the Democratic candidates are too close to be decided upon by the delegate count alone. Math would be fair, but the primaries are not about fair. The Delegate math is merely one indicator among several to help the DNC make the all important decision.

If nothing else, this election is presenting a great opportunity for a lesson in Government. Those of us who always thought it was simply about the math are learning some new political lessons.

I have no idea who the Superdelegates will decide upon, but I will say once again that it is not about fairness or delegate math. They will decide based on the most likely Electoral college win. We can get all pissy about Bosnia or Wright, but none of that will matter unless it means that a candidate will lose (or win) Electoral votes because of it.

I'd say that the DNC has some serious thinking to do in the upcoming weeks. They have their work cut out for them. I don't envy them.

demsonly

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