McCain... Comeback Kid... Really?
I keep on hearing msm commentators talking about McCain's history of come backs- "Well, it looks bad for McCain, but don't count him out." It doesn't hold water.
He ran for President in 2000. He got beaten- badly! Not his fault, perhaps, but he certainly can't point to a comeback there.
Last year, his campaign was in disarray. He was all over the map. He shook up the campaign and his position improved... a bit. It didn't propel him to the front of the back. It returned him to viability. He then got a series of gifts. First of all, Rudy Guiliani and Fred Thompson, conversely to conventional wisdom, ended up being TERRIBLE national candidates. So, they basically self-immolated. That left Romney and Huckabee. Huckabee was very engaging, but was NEVER going to be a viable national candidate. He was, however, engaging enough to fatally wound Romney. Romney, went limping into New Hamphshire, where Huckabee was not likely to play well, and there was John McCain- always somewhat popular in New Hampshire anyway. And we're off the the races- Romney, having lost in his neighboring state, was not going to come back. Huckabee was never going to have the money to seriously compete on Super Tuesday, and even if he could, there were too many states that would not look kindly on his evangelical background for him to have too good of a day. Bottom line is, McCain won the Republican nomination by being the last man standing at the end of a very short ward of attrition against two highly flawed competetors.
And now, here we are in the Fall campaign... and McCain has been singulalry unimpressive. McCain had a few good weeks when he named Palin and that's about it. And even there, I would argue, he had actually planted the seeds of his ultimate demise- it was a craven political move, reaching out to a part of the party that he had no particular relationship to or taste for. I would also point out that, while all the talk has been that his numbers basically tracked with the Dow. That's partially true, but when he really cratered was after the VP debate- it was at that point that the majority perception of Palin solidified as someone who, like her or don't, is not qualified for the office to which she aspires.
There are three weeks, which is an eternity in politics, but if McCain does prevail, it will almost certainly be due to outside forces, rather than a McCain comeback for which he's never shown a propensity.
He ran for President in 2000. He got beaten- badly! Not his fault, perhaps, but he certainly can't point to a comeback there.
Last year, his campaign was in disarray. He was all over the map. He shook up the campaign and his position improved... a bit. It didn't propel him to the front of the back. It returned him to viability. He then got a series of gifts. First of all, Rudy Guiliani and Fred Thompson, conversely to conventional wisdom, ended up being TERRIBLE national candidates. So, they basically self-immolated. That left Romney and Huckabee. Huckabee was very engaging, but was NEVER going to be a viable national candidate. He was, however, engaging enough to fatally wound Romney. Romney, went limping into New Hamphshire, where Huckabee was not likely to play well, and there was John McCain- always somewhat popular in New Hampshire anyway. And we're off the the races- Romney, having lost in his neighboring state, was not going to come back. Huckabee was never going to have the money to seriously compete on Super Tuesday, and even if he could, there were too many states that would not look kindly on his evangelical background for him to have too good of a day. Bottom line is, McCain won the Republican nomination by being the last man standing at the end of a very short ward of attrition against two highly flawed competetors.
And now, here we are in the Fall campaign... and McCain has been singulalry unimpressive. McCain had a few good weeks when he named Palin and that's about it. And even there, I would argue, he had actually planted the seeds of his ultimate demise- it was a craven political move, reaching out to a part of the party that he had no particular relationship to or taste for. I would also point out that, while all the talk has been that his numbers basically tracked with the Dow. That's partially true, but when he really cratered was after the VP debate- it was at that point that the majority perception of Palin solidified as someone who, like her or don't, is not qualified for the office to which she aspires.
There are three weeks, which is an eternity in politics, but if McCain does prevail, it will almost certainly be due to outside forces, rather than a McCain comeback for which he's never shown a propensity.
